Martin O'Malley Won't Run In 2020 - Updated

I will not be running for President in 2020, but I hope Beto O’Rourke does. It’s time for a new generation of leadership. https://t.co/6vDbAUvzDt

— Martin O'Malley (@MartinOMalley) January 3, 2019

Former Maryland governor and 2016 candidate Martin O'Malley says he won't run in 2020. I'm moving him to the I'm Not Running list.  

Potential Democratic Candidates, in alphabetical order:

Reminder: Not every name on this list is "viable" as a future nominee or president, or even seriously interested in running, necessarily. It's just a list of every name I've ever seen mentioned, anywhere, as someone who might run in 2020.

1. Stacey Abrams (2018 candidate for Georgia governor) added 1/3/19
2. Joe Biden (Former VP)
3. Michael Bloomberg (Former mayor of New York City)
4. Peter Buttigieg (Mayor of South Bend, Indiana) added Sept. 8
5. Cory Booker (New Jersey senator)
6. Sherrod Brown (Ohio senator)
7. Jerry Brown (Governor of California)
8. Steve Bullock (Governor of Montana)
9. Mark Cuban (Businessman, owner of the Dallas Mavericks)
10. Bill de Blasio (Mayor of New York City)
11. Tulsi Gabbard (Congresswoman from Hawaii) added Sept. 8
12. Eric Garcetti (Mayor of Los Angeles) 
13. Kirsten Gillibrand (New York senator)
14. Andrew Gillum (Former mayor of Tallahassee, FL, 2018 candidate for governor) added Dec. 11
15. Kamala Harris (California senator)
16. John Hickenlooper (Governor of Colorado) 
17. Eric Holder (Former Attorney General)
18. Jay Inslee (Governor of Washington)
19. Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson (Actor) added Nov. 10
20. Tim Kaine (Virginia senator, 2016 VP nominee)
21. Joe Kennedy (Congressman from Massachusetts) added Nov. 10
22. John Kerry (former Secretary of State, 2004 Democratic nominee) added Nov. 10 
23. Amy Klobuchar (Minnesota senator)
24. Mitch Landrieu (Mayor of New Orleans)
25. Terry McAuliffe (Former governor of Virginia)
26. Jeff Merkley (Oregon senator)
27. Seth Moulton (Congressman from Massachusetts) 
28. Chris Murphy (Connecticut senator)
29. Beto O'Rourke (Texas Congressman, running for the U.S. Senate) added Sept. 13
30. Tim Ryan (Congressman from Ohio) added Sept. 8
31. Bernie Sanders (Vermont senator, registered Independent, ran in 2016 primaries)
32. Howard Schultz (Businessman, former CEO of Starbucks)
33. Tom Steyer (Businessman) added Sept. 8
34. Eric Swalwell (Congressman from California) added Nov. 8
35. Mark Warner (Virginia senator) added Nov. 10
36. Marianne Williamson (Author, teacher, spiritual leader) added Dec. 11
37. Mark Zuckerberg (Businessman, founder of Facebook)

I'm Running: Declared Democratic Candidates, in order of their announcement

1. John Delaney (7/28/17) 
2. Andrew Yang (11/6/17) 
3. Richard Ojeda (11/11/18)
4. Elizabeth Warren (12/31/18)
5. Julian Castro (added 1/3/19) Note: Castro hasn't officially announced, but he did form an exploratory committee, which is usually a good indication that someone is running. 

I'm Not Running

Oprah Winfrey

Andrew Cuomo
Sheryl Sandberg, added Sept. 8
Jason Kander, added Oct. 17
Robert Iger, added Oct. 22
Michael Avenatti, December 4, 2018
Deval Patrick, December 5, 2018
Martin O'Malley, January 3, 2019
Luis Gutierrez, added January 7, 2019 

Meanwhile, in an article posted yesterday, Slate says these seven Democrats have early leads: 

Joe Biden

Bernie Sanders

Elizabeth Warren

Beto O'Rourke

Kamala Harris

Cory Booker

Amy Klobuchar

The article lays out strengths and liabilities for each of the seven and ends with this: 

Those are just seven of the Democrats who could mount a credible primary campaign this year and next. Plenty more are eager to try. Despite their low polling numbers now, you’re going to hear more about Kirsten Gillibrand and Sherrod Brown and Julián Castro (who recently launched his exploratory committee). A national newcomer like Andrew Gillum or Stacey Abrams could make a splash should they decide to get in. Democrats with a lower national profile but without a recent electoral loss on their record could also attract the spotlight, be it Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti or Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper. And there are those who could bankroll their own campaigns to consider: former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, environmental activist Tom Steyer, and former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz, among them. The only thing that would truly be a surprise in 2019 is if there were no surprises. But the seven on this short list can reasonably expect one thing, should they decide to run: Their early popularity will provide an initial platform to make their case directly to the Democratic base. The other could-be candidates won’t necessarily have that luxury. Their immediate concern, then, won’t be how their pitch will be received but whether enough primary voters will even be able to hear it over the competing noise.

Note: I hadn't seen that Julian Castro had launched an exploratory committee; I'm moving him to the I'm Running list. I also hadn't seen Stacey Abrams, who ran for governor of Georgia, as a potential candidate, but Slate says it's possible so I'm adding her to my Potential Candidate list. Click here to read the Slate article. 

And one more thing. With a Republican incumbent in 2020 most of the suspense is on the Democratic side, but not all of it. Some Republicans would clearly prefer that Donald not be their nominee in 2020. Daniel Drezner shares some thoughts at the Washington Post: 

To understand what is going on, one must appreciate the following facts: (A) Sitting presidents who face a primary challenge tend not to win reelection. See: Lyndon Johnson, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush. (B) The primary challenger usually does not win, either. See: Eugene McCarthy, Ronald Reagan (who didn’t win in 1976), Ted Kennedy and Patrick Buchanan. (C) Reagan aside, within party politics it’s better to be the person cleaning up the mess than the person making the mess.

What I suspect Romney, Haley, Kasich and Hogan are all doing is planning for one of two contingencies. The first is that Trump resigns or is forced out of office due to one of his many mounting scandals, in which case Vice President Pence will be about as strong as Georgy Malenkov. The second is to wait for someone else to make a kamikaze run at Trump during the 2020 GOP primary, paving the way for a less controversial run at the nomination. This requires an odd game of signaling visibility without moving first. What they all need is the equivalent of a pace car, a politician willing to challenge Trump in such a way as to facilitate more viable entrants. But none of them want to be the one to fall on their sword. (Read the article here.) 

Days until the presidential election: 669 

Update on Saturday morning. South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg is on the Potential list, above, and yesterday I saw this tweet: 

NEW: At an off-the-record with journalists and political types in Manhattan last night at @MollyJongFast's house, South Bend Mayor @PeteButtigieg left the distinct impression he's not only running for president in 2020 but could announce very soon, per attendees.

— Shane Goldmacher (@ShaneGoldmacher) January 5, 2019

Normally the mayor of a relatively small city would be the longest of longshots but if a reality TV star can get elected president, anyone can, right? 

Things will only get more hectic in the days ahead, in terms of who's running and who's not. I won't see every little thing that's written about every potential candidate but when I do see something interesting I'll add it to the blog. I'll also try to keep the lists up-to-date, in particular the "I'm Running" list of declared candidates. 

Days until the election: 667

Update #2 on Monday morning. An interesting tweet about Joe Biden:

The biggest thing happening in the Democratic Party right now is a huge surge of women’s activism. I don’t think that bodes well for the candidate (Biden) widely seen as bungling the Anita Hill-Clarence Thomas hearing.

— Phil Klinkner (@pklinkne) January 7, 2019

Update #3: Gutierrez isn't running. I've moved him to the "I'm Not Running" list.

Luis Gutierrez announces new role as @CNN commentator https://t.co/4J2f6LInw5

— Natasha Korecki (@natashakorecki) January 7, 2019

Update #4, on January 8: Up until a couple of minutes ago, when I read a Washington Post article by Jonathan Capehart titled "Everyone's talking about Beto and Biden. But here's another 'B' you should know," I didn't know that Pete Buttigieg is gay and married to a man named Chasten Glezman. (Read it here.) I also didn't know that on June 11, 2016 New York Times columnist Frank Bruni published a column about Buttigieg titled "The first gay president?" It starts with this: 

South Bend, Ind. — IF you went into some laboratory to concoct a perfect Democratic candidate, you’d be hard pressed to improve on Pete Buttigieg, the 34-year-old second-term mayor of this Rust Belt city, where he grew up and now lives just two blocks from his parents.

Education? He has a bachelor’s from Harvard and a master’s from Oxford, where he was a Rhodes Scholar.

Public service? He’s a lieutenant in the Navy Reserve. For seven months in 2014, he was deployed to Afghanistan — and took an unpaid leave from work in order to go.

He regularly attends Sunday services at his Episcopal church. He runs half-marathons. His TEDx talk on urban innovation in South Bend is so polished and persuasive that by the end of it, you’ve hopped online to price real estate in the city. (Read the column here.)

We've had the first black president. Which presidential barrier will be the next to fall? A woman? A Jewish man? A gay man? (A gay Jewish woman? In my dreams.) Will 2020 be another barrier-busting year? Possibly.   

Days until the election: 664