Sunday, January 31, 2016

A Very Strange Election...

static2.politico.jpg

Lose Loosely




What The Donald meant to say, was "lose" big to Hillary.

Saturday, January 30, 2016

Awkward Moments, The First Five

Image result for the bachelor

Here you go, rosebuds, the first five awkward moments:

20. Jake and Vienna, after the break-up (link)
19. Trista's fantasy suite confession (link)
18. Ali leaves Kasey on a glacier (link)
17. Kelsey's amazing story (link)
16. Justin gets busted for having a girlfriend (link)
15.
14.
13.
12.
11.
10.
9.
8.
7.
6.
5.
4.
3.
2.
1.

Friday, January 29, 2016

He Is Not "Fairing" Well

From a people.com story about O.J. Simpson in prison: 

He is not fairing well, his former business manager, Nick Pardo, tells PEOPLE exclusively. 

I think what the author meant to say is that O.J. is not "faring" well. (Read it here.) 

Seriously, People, hire some editors. 

Blogging The Bach: Where's Alex?

Greetings, rosebuds! Are you enjoying Ben's season? Am I? Yes I'm enjoying watching but on some level it's "same old, same old," which is to be expected on the 20th season of anything. And it turns out the network/producers are making a big deal about this 20th anniversary season, with a big special planned for February 14th, Valentine's Day, natch.

On Monday night's after-the-show show (Bachelor Live,) Chris Harrison mentioned that the anniversary show will feature the biggest gathering of former Bachelors in the show's history, but they've got a problem. They can't find Bach #1, the original, Alex Michel. I'd read before that Alex has gone underground where all things Bachelor are concerned, apparently wanting to leave that strange episode from his younger years behind him. So in these days of social media, is it really possible to disappear? Harrison asked viewers to call in if they have any info about the missing Bach, and he also spoke directly to Alex, on the (unlikely) chance he was watching, saying "Come home, brother, come home." Will he? Can Alex Michel stay hidden now that the full force of Bachelor Nation has been set upon his trail? My guess? Probably not.

In another promo for the big show, producers are posting, once a day, the "Top 20 Moments" from 20 seasons of the Bachelor, starting Tuesday. Similar to what I'm doing with the GOP presidential candidates, I'm going to keep a running list:

20. Jake and Vienna, after the break-up (link)
19. Trista's fantasy suite confession (link)
18. Ali leaves Kasey on a glacier (link)
17.
16.
15.
14.
13.
12.
11.
10.
9.
8.
7.
6.
5.
4.
3.
2.
1.  

This should be fun. If Jake and Vienna's awkward break-up is only #20 who knows what we'll be re-living as they count down to number one. (I assume that will be Jason dumping Melissa on the After The Final Rose show and immediately taking up with Molly. Stay tuned.) I watched a few seasons of the show when it started in 2002, but I was AWOL for Jesse Palmer, Charlie O'Connell, Travis Stork, Lorenzo Borghese, Andrew Baldwin and Brad Womack's first turn as the Bach, so some of this stuff will probably be new to me. As I think about it, if anyone had said back in the Spring of 2002, when this all started, that we'd still be gathering on Monday nights to watch The Bachelor in 2016, they would have been laughed out of the room. To put it another way, when Alex Michel made his debut as the first Bachelor, current Bachelor Ben was 12.

As for the actual show this time around, some random thoughts:

Our host Chris Harrison "writes" a blog at Yahoo after each episode airs and I've enjoyed reading it during prior seasons, but this week it felt like he's just phoning it in, with comments so generic they could be from any prior season:

... our first stop in Las Vegas got our trip started with quite a bit of drama, and also quite a bit of romance. 

It's [the hotel] a great place to be but obviously every woman wants to get out of the hotel and onto a great date with Ben. As we move through these weeks, time with the Bachelor becomes more and more precious and every woman is hoping to get that one-on-one time with Ben. 

JoJo got the first date card and she was thrilled and excited at the same time. 

Really Chris? Quite a bit of drama? Thrilled and excited at the same time? Aren't you afraid you're giving away some state secrets with all this detail and insight? 

I've decided that to succeed on the show, it's better not to get the First Impression Rose (FIR) or to go on the first one-on-one date. Why? Human nature. Women who get the first rose or first date can't help assuming that they're special in the Bachelor's eyes, then they frequently look pretty silly a few episodes later when they're all upset that the Bachelor is actually dating and kissing other women. (The universal question: Haven't they ever watched the show before?) That brings me, of course, to Olivia, who got this season's FIR and is now acting all kinds of weird and talking about Ben as her "husband." Last year on Chris Soules' season, Britt fell victim to the same misjudgment and went from front-runner to "sent home in tears" because she couldn't handle the process, even though it happens on every show, and is in fact the entire basis for the show. Former Bachelorette Ali Fedotowsky has said that she knew who her final two would be by the end of the first night, but she had to go through the process with all the guys. Otherwise there's no show.

For this season we've gone back to the original format of a rose ceremony at the end of each episode. Last season several episodes ended with drama of some kind or another, followed by the words "To be continued." It was frustrating and felt manipulative, and as I remember, producers got an earful on Twitter. Bachelor Nation was not happy. This time around, so far at least, we're back to the way things are meant to be. Yay! 

In other Bachelor franchise news, remember Jade, from last season? (Posed for Playboy, naked videos, Cinderella date, sent home after hometowns? Yeah, that's Jade. Here's what I wrote about her last year.) She was on Bachelor in Paradise (BIP) last summer, met Tanner from Kaitlyn's season and this past Sunday they tied the knot, in a ceremony that will be featured on the anniversary show. By my count that makes seven Bach franchise couples who have gotten married: 3 Bachelorettes (Trista & Ryan, Ashley & J.P. and Desirée & Chris,) 2 BIP couples (Lacy & Marcus and Tanner & Jade,) 1 Bachelor (Sean and Catherine) and 1 outlier (Jason Mesnick, who initially got engaged to Melissa, then dumped her and got back with his runner-up, Molly.) Kaitlyn and Shawn are still together too.

That's all for now, rosebuds. Meet me back here, same Bach time, same Bach channel, for more of Ben's journey to love. 

Thursday, January 28, 2016

Obviously A Major Malfunction...

Image result for space shuttle challenger

When the space shuttle Challenger exploded 30 years ago it seemed like the worst thing that could possibly happen to our country. Little did we know. 9/11 was still 15 years in the future. The Gulf wars, Columbine, mass shootings in schools, theaters and churches, the Oklahoma City bombing, Hurricane Katrina... In January, 1986, we were blissfully ignorant of how bad things could be. The country came together to mourn the loss of seven brave astronauts, including one civilian, a teacher, as well as the black eye to our national pride.

Image result for space shuttle challenger

There's lots that could be said about the folly that led to the disaster but it's all mostly been said. I'll simply say that I remember that day well, it was a sad day for all Americans and it's hard to believe that 30 years have gone by.

Debating The Donald?

Not tonight, apparently.

In a fit of pique earlier this week, Donald Trump said that Fox News has been mean to him and he wouldn't stand on stage at their debate tonight. Was he bluffing? Jeb! thought so, offering to bet $10,000 that Donald would show up. (Full disclosure: I'm exaggerating. It was $20. #MemoriesOfMittens.)

Anyway, as of 2.30 Thursday afternoon it's clear that Donald isn't bluffing. He won't debate tonight and he's holding an event of his own, bragging that he'll get better ratings than the boring Trumpless debate over on Fox. Will he? Maybe. CNN and MSNBC haven't said yet that they'll show the whole thing live, but my bet is that they do.

Why is this happening? Chris Cillizza at The Fix says Donald just doesn't want to debate any more:

Trump is sick of debating. Period.

He also knows two things:

1. He is not a great debater but probably had his best performance in a debate in the last get-together of the candidates. (His amazing statement announcing he would not participate in the seventh debate included this line: "There have already been six debates, and according to all online debate polls including Drudge, Slate, Time Magazine, and many others, Mr. Trump has won all of them, in particular the last one.")

2. He has the momentum in Iowa and is way ahead in New Hampshire.

For Trump then another debate this close to the Iowa caucuses has almost no upside. His attacks on Ted Cruz are working. All of the second tier candidates are either attacking each other or Cruz. Thousands of people are coming to every one of his rallies -- including the one he will hold tonight in Iowa while his rivals debate. He is getting wall-to-wall media coverage and will continue to do so.

What Trump wants to do then is run out the clock. Take as few risks as possible between now and Monday. He and his campaign know that if he wins the Iowa caucuses, he will almost certainly cruise in the New Hampshire primary eight days later. Win those first two states and Trump starts to look (even more) like a juggernaut for the Republican nomination.

That's why Trump isn't debating tonight. The rest is just a smokescreen.


Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo takes a deeper look:

So this debate power play is all of a piece. He [Trump] can just take the table, flip it over and walk out of the room. It's all about him.

There is no question that Trump will completely dominate tomorrow night's debate by his absence. After all, he's the one in the lead everywhere. If he's not there, what is there to talk about? The Rubio v Christie stand off? Jeb? Who cares?

It may be two plus hours of people attacking him without him being there to respond - and the moderators themselves out to get him too. But again, it's still all about him. He can make it all about him by not even being there. He doesn't kowtow to Fox News or go on retainer with the network during the off-season. He calls the shots. And there is little question in my mind that in one fashion or another you will have two competing TV shows tomorrow night, Trump's and everybody else's. And Trump's will almost certainly be better.

I cannot imagine that at least one of the other cable nets won't livecast it so it really is two different, simulcast competing shows, maybe even with Trump responding to debate attacks in his own speech. The rival candidates are putting it out that Trump is afraid to face Kelly. But I don't think anyone will actually buy that. He's at least held his own in every debate so far. And his first encounter with Kelly last year was a big success for him. It's just a very transparent, straightforward power play.

Now, having said all this, this is so over-the-top that I'm not certain Trump can pull it off. There's part of me that wonders if he's become so used to getting away with every stunt he's pulled in this campaign that he's finally bitten off more than he can chew and somehow it backfires. My hunch is it doesn't. I'm not sure. But I get the idea. Trump doesn't follow rules. Rules follow Trump.

And this brings me to the other part of this I'm keen to discuss.

This whole drama is becoming a real measure, almost a litmus test for buy-in to the normative political culture, the architecture of our current electoral system. Because what is most striking to me about this game is that there's really not even the pretense that there is any real dispute about debate rules or bias or fairness or anything like that at the core of this. There's not even any there there in Trump's supposed 'feud' with Megyn Kelly. It has all the emotive credibility of a professional wrestling rivalry. It really is more or less openly just him saying I'm going to jack you guys up for the fun of it and make a spectacle of this.

Just to make trouble.

Because I can.


You can read Cillizza here and Marshall here

Days until the Iowa caucuses: 4

Days until Election Day: 284

Dead Blonde Woman

Issue dated February 8, 2016
Nicole Brown Simpson: Sister Speaks Out About TV Series About O.J. Simpson Trial

People goes with a Dead Blonde Woman story this week, albeit one who's been dead for almost 22 years. Why now? It's buried in a sentence at the very bottom of the cover ("How they really feel about the star-studded new TV series.") In spite of the lurid headlines (Shocking New Details/JUSTICE FOR NICOLE,) the reference to Nicole's family and even Kris Jenner, this is all promo material for "The People v. O.J. Simpson," a 10-part series debuting on FX February 2. (Read Variety's review here; the short version is that the show's pretty good but John Travolta is awful.)

Other than a tiny topline tease about the Flint water scandal, it's an all-girl cover this week. Mariah Carey and her engagement ring, Angelina Jolie and her kids and Japanese tidying guru Marie Kondo round out the sidebar stories.

To keep us up-to-date, here's last week's cover:

Issue dated February 1, 2016

Wednesday, January 27, 2016

This Day In History, 1991: Whitney Houston's Anthem

Twenty-five years ago, Whitney Houston mesmerized the nation with her rousing performance of the Star Spangled Banner at the 1991 Super Bowl.



Who's singing this year, at Super Bowl 50? As far as I can tell with a quick Google search, it hasn't been announced yet.

Monday, January 25, 2016

Seven Days And Counting

In a presidential campaign that started about 7 seconds after Mitt Romney delivered his concession speech on November 6, 2012, we're now only 7 days away from the first actual votes, in the Iowa caucuses. You know, from actual voters. On Friday, Chris Cillizza at the Washington Post issued his latest rankings of GOP candidates, in order of their likelihood of being the nominee:
  1. Donald Trump
  2. Ted Cruz
  3. Marco Rubio
  4. Jeb Bush
  5. John Kasich
  6. Chris Christie
One of the most striking things about this list is that there are only 6 names on it. (My running list of declared candidates currently shows 12; not included on Cillizza's list are Rand Paul, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, Rick Santorum and Jim Gilmore. Note that Huckabee won the Iowa caucuses in 2008, Santorum won, barely, in 2012.)

Both sides have one more debate before the voting starts. CNN is hosting a "Town Hall" for the Democratic candidates tonight; Fox hosts the Republicans on Thursday.

Will The Donald win next Monday night? Will Hillary? What happens if either/both of them don't win Iowa? As entertaining as this campaign has been, it's only going to get more so as the votes start being counted. I'm assuming that several GOP candidates will drop out if they don't do well in Iowa, I'll keep my list updated. Here's how it looks today, and remember, this list is in order of officially entering the race, not likelihood of being the nominee:

Declared (and still in the race) GOP Candidates
  1. Ted Cruz (March 23) 
  2. Rand Paul (April 7)
  3. Marco Rubio (April 14)
  4. Dr. Ben Carson (May 3) 
  5. Carly Fiorina (May 4) 
  6. Mike Huckabee (May 5) 
  7. Rick Santorum (May 27)
  8. Jeb Bush (June 15)
  9. Donald Trump (June 16) 
  10. Chris Christie (June 30)
  11. John Kasich (July 21) 
  12. Jim Gilmore (July 30) 
Officially Not Running
Rob Portman (Dec 2, 2014)
Paul Ryan (Jan 12, 2015)
Mitt Romney (Jan 30, 2015)
Rick Snyder (May 7, 2015)
John Bolton (May 14, 2015) 
Mike Pence (May 20, 2015) 
Bob Ehrlich (August 4, 2015)

You're Fired!: Candidates Who Have Dropped Out
Rick Perry (June 4 - Sept. 11)
Scott Walker (July 13 - Sept. 21)
Bobby Jindal (June 24 - November 17)
Lindsey Graham (June 1 - December 21)
George Pataki (May 28 - December 29)

Days until Election Day: 287

Saturday, January 23, 2016

Get An Editor, Donald

Update: another tweet from a presidential candidate:




IMO, anyone who will take voting advice from Barbara Bush is probably already in Jeb!'s corner. I can't imagine this will change anyone's mind and Donald J. Trump is already sneering about Jeb's "mommy."

Original post:



For all of you non-words geeks, "it's" is a contraction of "it is." (The apostrophe indicates that a letter is missing.) When "its" is used as a possessive, no apostrophe is needed. So what The Donald meant to say is:

National Review is a failing publication that has lost its way. Its circulation is way down w its influence being at an all time low. Sad."

Note that he did get the third "its" write. Oops, I mean right. #EditorsAreImportant

Tuesday, January 19, 2016

Senate Confirmation

Image result for Sarah Palin

Ernest Moniz, Doctorate in Theoretical Physics, Stanford.
Steven Chu, Ph.D in Physics, UC Berkeley, 1997 Nobel Prize in Physics.
Samuel Bodman, Doctorate of Science in Chemical Engineering, M.I.T.

Who are these men? They are the current (Moniz) and former (Chu and Bodman) Secretaries of Energy. I think about them (and their credentials, gee, not a reality show in sight) whenever I hear that Sarah Palin wants that job in a Trump administration. When I'm shaking in horror at the thought of it, I just remind myself of two important words, the ones in the title of this post: Senate Confirmation.

Read my previous post on this topic here.

Wednesday, January 13, 2016

Thinking About Vice Presidents

Thursday morning update: Was I distracted by dreams of winning the lottery when I wrote this post yesterday? Possibly. Anyway, apologies for the typos in the original post, they've been fixed.

Original Post:
I sheepishly admit I've been keeping an eye on the unfolding drama around Bristol Palin, her new baby and the is-he-or-isn't-he-the-daddy MOH recipient Dakota Meyer. To bring you up-to-date, Bristol announced via Instagram on December 24 that her daughter Sailor Grace had been born the the day before:

A photo posted by Bristol Palin (@bsmp2) on

The same day, Meyer issued a tweet that would appear to claim paternity: 


Meyer filed for joint custody of the baby, which apparently includes the possibility of child support from Bristol to Dakota. Sarah Palin responded by slamming him in a statement to Entertainment Tonight, saying that he was just trying to save face (and misspelling his name in the process;) Bristol's publicist stated that "My values are such that a real American hero doesn't ask for child support," to which Meyer's attorney responded that he didn't request child support, and someone leaked legal paperwork showing that a paternity test will be done before anything further can happen. Got that? Are you still with me? 

The Daily Mail has the details. I have a media literacy reminder about the click-bait headline, which says "Dakota Meyer's custody battle with Bristol Palin escalates as he is forced to take a PATERNITY TEST..." Note that it's not Bristol who is forcing him to take the test, it's just a required part of the process when the parents are not married to each other. (Conspiracy-minded Palin haters are salivating at the thought that Bristol Palin "forced" the DNA test, because it indicates more than one sexual partner.) 

It's not a pretty picture, frankly, for a "family values conservative," which Sarah Palin claims to be, and not very dignified for a former VP candidate who at one point had a legitimate shot at serving as this nation's Vice President. (This is Bristol's scandal, of course, not Sarah's, but Sarah made her five children a big part of her political identity. It's not surprising that when there are scandals involving her children, some of the fallout lands on their mother.) As I was pondering all this, I remembered that Palin isn't the first VP candidate to endure a scandal based on out-of-wedlock sex and an illegitimate child. Her predecessor in the role did too. That would be John Edwards, who was John Kerry's running mate in 2004 and found himself in his own messy and undignified predicament 4 years later in 2008.  

The most recent losing VP candidate, by-the-way, has followed a different path. As I wrote in an earlier post, after the loss in 2012, Paul Ryan went back to his day job in the House of Representatives and pretty much stayed out of the limelight. He certainly hasn't had any juicy sex scandals, and in fact, he's now the Speaker of the House, possibly the most powerful Republican in the country and second in line to the presidency. He was right there at the State of the Union last night and he and VP Biden at least appear to be playing nicely together. 


Finally, there's this: 


The story about the president offering to help if Beau Biden had to resign his job is moving, but I was even more touched by the affection the Obama and Biden families have for each other. I can't imagine that kind of love and affection between the McCains and the Palins after 7 years in office, can you? 

Making A Murderer

Issue dated January 25, 2016
Who Killed Teresa? The Untold Story Behind Making a Murderer

The whole Making A Murderer things has pretty much passed me by. I'd never heard of the show and now it's everywhere. I am thinking about getting Netflix...

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

A Horse, A Bachelorette and A Unicorn Walk Into A Mansion

Greetings Rosebuds, it's that time of year again. It seems like just yesterday we were starting the journey with Farmer Chris, but yikes, a whole year has gone by and this franchise just keeps on keeping on. I got a little behind on my blogging but now I'm back in the groove of "Blogging The Bach." Here's how things look to me right now:

Image result for bachelor Ben higgins

I'm so glad ABC ditched the big red carpet arrival and live watch party they tried last year. This time around we're back to the regular format: A review of Ben's journey, shots of him driving and looking pensive, some intro videos of selected women, then, drum roll please, the limo arrivals.

I thought Ben handled himself well, but really. How weird must it feel to stand there as each successive woman gets out of the limo and tries to be memorable? I assume he got coaching, from producers and/or the show's resident shrink, on how to remain calm, handle everything as it comes, no eye-rolling or doubling over in despair, etc. My fave arrival gimmick? Huey the horse, of course, of course,

Image result for Huey the horse

Unfortunately, Huey's owner didn't connect with Ben and was sent home roseless at the end of the first night.

Ben is cute and he's clearly trying hard to be a nice guy. He also strikes me as young to be the Bachelor, and most of his women seem to be younger than usual, in their early 20s. (The twins are 22.) Reality Steve has some fun info about age ranges and averages for all the previous Bachelors. Oldest? Byron Velvick, 40. Youngest? Jesse Palmer, 25. Oldest women on Ben's season? Breanne and Maegan, both of whom are now gone, and Amber, all 30 years old. Based on a quick scan of RS's charts, the oldest woman ever to compete on the show was "Melinda" from Byron's season, who was 39. Check out the charts here.

Ben's parents seem cool. Since Ben was in Kaitlyn's final four, we should have seen them on a hometown date, but remember the big change? For some reason, only Nick and Shawn got to introduce their families to Kaitlyn, not in their hometowns but at a hotel in Utah. It was very strange. Ben is clearly close to his parents, who were in the audience last week when he appeared on Jimmy Kimmel and on the Live after-the-show show. I haven't decided for sure if I think that's charming or if it reinforces how young Ben seems to be. And being the Bachelor isn't easy. Last Monday, Ben was live on Good Morning, America and Live with Kelly and Michael in New York, flew cross-country to Los Angeles, taped the Jimmy Kimmel show, then ended a long day appearing live on the new aftershow. Not for the faint of heart.

Ben started with 28 women, the usual 25 plus the second twin, and in a surprise arrival, Becca and Amber, Bachelor veterans from Farmer Chris's season. If you've forgotten, Becca made it all the way to the final night, only to be rejected by the farmer and sent home in floods of tears. (For the record, the woman Chris proposed to, nurse Whitney Bischoff, is long gone, They lasted until May or so.) So why are Becca and Amber there? Continuity? Because Ben is so irresistible? Nothing better to do? Probably some combination of all of the above. Maybe they're hoping a little more exposure will put them in line to be the Bachelorette. After the slut-shaming Kaitlyn experienced this summer maybe a virginal Bachelorette's time has come; Amber would address the show's diversity issues. We'll have to see how they do as the season plays out. Generally, coming in third, making it to hometowns and being sent home after the Fantasy Suites episode is the best path to getting hired as the Bachelorette.

Who will win this thing and get engaged to Ben, at least for a little while? Jimmy Kimmel made a prediction and apparently he's got a pretty good track record. He says Caila comes in 4th, Olivia is 3rd, Lauren B is the runner up and Jo Jo is the big winner. Is he right? Meet me back here next week, same Bach time, same Bach channel, and we'll keep watching to find out.

Things I Don't Care About: Full House

Issue dated January 18, 2016
PEOPLE Takes You on the Set of Fuller House: John Stamos Says, 'We Never Stopped Loving Each Other'| Full House, Fuller House, Ashley Olsen, Dave Coulier, John Stamos, Mary-Kate Olsen

Monday, January 11, 2016

Under Pressure

Issue dated September 6, 1976
 'There Is No Definitive David Bowie': How the Late Music Legend Explained Creating His Iconic Persona to PEOPLE| Death, Music News, David Bowie

It's always been one of my favorite songs:

Monday, January 4, 2016

Half Their Size

Issue dated January 11, 2016
Half Their Size Cover

Here's the current cover, no surprise, including a short story about Bachelor Ben. The excitement starts tonight, rosebuds, and can you believe that this is the 20th time we've done this, not even including The Bachelorette, Bachelor Pad or Bachelor In Paradise? Can you name all the previous Bachelors? I probably couldn't either, off the top of my head, but last year at this time I did a little googling and came up with the complete list:

  1. Alex Michel
  2. Aaron Buerge
  3. Andrew Firestone
  4. Bob Guiney
  5. Jesse Palmer
  6. Byron Velvick
  7. Charlie O'Connell
  8. Travis Stork
  9. Lorenzo Borghese
  10. Andrew Baldwin
  11. Brad Womack (the first time around)
  12. Matt Grant
  13. Jason Mesnick
  14. Jake Pavelka
  15. Brad Womack (second try) 
  16. Ben Flajnik
  17. Sean Lowe
  18. Juan Pablo Galavais
  19. Chris Soules 
Of all these distinguished gentlemen, only Jason Mesnick and Sean Lowe are actually married to women they met on the show. Will Ben join them? Probably not, but who cares. After 19 seasons, the producers have the whole process down to a science. There will be drama and crying, flirting and kissing, fantasy suites and flying to foreign countries, along with lots and lots of roses, just as we've seen 19 times before. As I've said before, in the middle of a cold Chicago winter, it's fun to settle in on the couch and watch the whole thing play out. 

As our host Chris Harrison says, Let the journey begin. 

Sunday, January 3, 2016

A New List

Chris Cillizza, at the Washington Post, is out with a new list, ranking who is most likely to be the GOP nominee for president: 


  1. Ted Cruz
  2. Marco Rubio
  3. Donald Trump
  4. Chris Christie
  5. Jeb Bush
  6. John Kasich
  7. Ben Carson/Mike Huckabee/Rick Santorum
It's quite a change, isn't it? Ted Cruz? Really? Yikes. Here's how Cillizza reads the tea leaves: 


The senator from Texas has been underestimated and underrated at every step of the primary process. No longer. Cruz is solidly in first place in Iowa and, barring some sort of unforeseen collapse, will win the first-in-the-nation caucuses. He also should run well in South Carolina on Feb. 20 and in the “SEC primary” on March 1. Cruz, thanks to Donald Trump, is now being seen in some GOP circles as a conservative, non-disastrous alternative to the real estate mogul. And, unlike other conservative insurgents of the past, Cruz has the money — in his campaign committee and in a constellation of super PACs backing him — to last for the duration of the race.


Read the article here


How long until voters cast the first actual votes? The Iowa caucuses are 4 weeks from tomorrow. 


Days until Election Day: 309