How Did We Get Here?

CNN media reporter Brian Stelter has some interesting thoughts about how right-wing media led Donald to impeachment:

How'd we get here, with Trump on the verge of impeachment? His sources of information led him astray. He was misinformed by the shows and sites he was watching and reading... https://t.co/I4gF400V9k

— Brian Stelter (@brianstelter) December 17, 2019

This is what his newsletter says:

The right-wing roots of impeachment

How did we get here? How did Trump wind up on the verge of impeachment? Well, his sources of information led him astray. He was misinformed by the shows and sites he was watching and reading.

To be clear: His choices, what Trump did with the information — the withholding of aid money, the alleged shakedown of the Ukrainian president, the claims that it was a "perfect" phone call — that's all his own doing. Trump is responsible for what he did. But what he was hearing from right-wing media was crucial. The conspiratorial bent of his favorite talk shows was critical.

--> Re: Ukraine and 2016: Sean Hannity and other Trump backers took tiny bits of true information from a January 2017 Politico story titled "Ukrainian efforts to sabotage Trump backfire" and blew it way, way out of proportion, to the point that some viewers thought Ukraine, not Russia, interfered in the 2016 election. Hannity leaned on the Politico story for months and months — in fact, he's still talking about it, as of Sunday -- so it's no wonder why Trump harbored a grudge against Ukraine.

--> Re: the Bidens and Burisma: Enter John Solomon, the right-wing columnist for The Hill who worked closely with Rudy Giuliani to light the fuse of the Ukraine scandal. Trump was watching when Solomon went on Hannity in March and described a Ukrainian effort to "try to influence the United States election in favor of Hillary Clinton." We know he was watching because he tweeted about the segment. Solomon rolled out an anti-Biden conspiracy theory... the feedback loop kept looping... and it ultimately ensnared Trump.

--> Re: the aid money for Ukraine, according to WaPo, Trump saw an article from the right-leaning Washington Examiner titled "Pentagon to send $250M in weapons to Ukraine" and started to ask Q's about the $$.

Here's the thing: The pro-Trump media bubble did not actually help Trump. To the contrary, it led him to the brink of impeachment...

Ari Melber's point

MSNBC's Ari Melber made a similar point about the power of right-wing media last week. The web headline: "Trump could be impeached partly for admissions on Fox News."

"Democrats think they can prove key, damning parts of this plot based partly on these scheming and intimidating statements in public, specifically broadcast live on Fox," Melber said, "which looks especially bad because it was occurring before this whistleblower came forward."

"The impeachment probe is finding evidence that Trump's Ukraine plot was fundamentally about propaganda," he added. "The goal was pushing Ukraine to damage the Bidens in public, not about actually investigating foreign corruption. It was about getting talk of Biden and corruption on American television -- in a loop from Fox News, back to Ukraine, back to CNN -- an entire political conversation that was designed to tarnish the Biden brand."

Read Stelter's newsletter here.

CNN's Monthly Power Rankings: November, 2018

CNN is out with their November Monthly Power Rankings for potential Democratic presidential nominees, and after two months of no change in spots 1-5, this month things look a little different:

1. Kamala Harris
2. Elizabeth Warren
3. Joe Biden
4. Amy Klobuchar
5. Cory Booker
6. Bernie Sanders
7. Julian Castro
8. Steve Bullock
9. Sherrod Brown
10. Beto O'Rourke

Michael Bloomberg gets the Honorable Mention spot this month. CNN explains the rankings here. 

Looking at things through a different lens, political scientist Jonathan Bernstein has some thoughts about who is more and less likely to actually get the nomination. He groups the candidates into four categories: Famous Older Politicians, Famous Non-Politicians, Current and Former Mayors and Representatives, and Governors and Senators:

It’s not really true that midterm elections kick off the next presidential campaign. After all, Democrats have been running for president for nearly two years now. They’ll continue doing so over the next few months without much change, except that some folks who were running for other offices until last week felt obliged to claim that they weren’t interested in the presidency and can now drop that pretense.

Even so, many in the media see the midterms as a useful marker. We’ve had another round of Top Candidate lists from CNN and FiveThirtyEight and the Fix, among others. There’s been at least one new poll. So it’s worth thinking about who might be serious contenders.

We don’t know which of the 30-some candidates who are currently running for 2020 will still be running in 2020. And because we’re in the “invisible primary” period, it can be hard to tell even who is currently running. Aspiring candidates sometimes offer public signals — going to Iowa and New Hampshire, publishing a book, establishing an organization — but even those can be misleading, and some candidates who are pursuing support behind the scenes stay less visible than others.

That makes any ranking of potential nominees somewhat arbitrary at this point. So instead of critiquing those lists, I’m going to briefly go over the four categories I’ve been using to keep track of the candidates.

First are the famous older politicians, notably Senator Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden. They’re the ones who top those early polls. I still think it’s highly unlikely that anyone from this pot wins the nomination. I could be wrong. But I just don’t see evidence that their poll standing — which is likely the product of name recognition rather than solid support — is matched by enthusiasm from party actors. 

Second are famous non-politicians, such as former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz or the celebrity lawyer Michael Avenatti. After being wrong about Trump’s nomination, I won’t definitively count anyone out this time around. But again I see no interest in this entire category from party actors. I’m not even convinced that Democratic voters are all that interested.

Then come the current and former mayors and representatives. There are a whole bunch of these. Could they do it? Sure. But there are reasons that no mayor has come close to a Democratic nomination in the modern era and that the closest any member of the House got — Richard Gephardt, in 1988 — wasn’t really all that close. Why? Representatives generally cultivate narrow constituencies, and often champion local interests. That makes it harder for them to transition to national campaigning. Mayors have to answer to so many overlapping and competing interests, many of which don’t correspond well with the national party coalition, that it’s hard for them to avoid creating serious enemies within the party. Perhaps someone from this group can break through and compete anyway. But there are significant structural challenges in their way.

If all that is correct, and if history is any guide, then the most likely nominee will be one of the governors or senators who appear to be running. That still leaves a pretty big group, including Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper, Washington Governor Jay Inslee, Senator Amy Klobuchar, Senator Elizabeth Warren and almost a dozen more. Some of them, presumably, will drop out by this spring, either because they were never very serious to begin with or because they could take a hint that party actors weren’t interested. But it’s this group that in my view deserves the most attention. How seriously are they running? What signs are there of broader support? That’s what to watch.

While the midterms may not mark the beginning of the campaign, this is the time that party actors — politicians, campaign professionals, activists, donors and so on — can really make a difference. They may or may not be able to control nominations (I think they generally can, Trump notwithstanding). But they certainly can influence them, up to the point of knocking out early candidates (such as Scott Walker in 2016 or Tim Pawlenty in 2012). So if you want to follow the presidential nominations — and especially if you want a significant say — this is the time to get to it.

Days until the presidential election: 718

We Both Know That He's Telling Lies

In an appearance on CNN this morning one of Donald's former White House Communications Directors came right out and said that Donald is a liar, and note that I'm not referring to Jason Miller. This time I'm talking about the other former Comms Director who served for a laughably short time and has a colorful personal life, our old friend Anthony Scaramucci, aka The Mooch. He's promoting his new book but anchor John Berman wanted to talk about Donald and his lies:

Appearing on "New Day" to promote his new book, "Trump: The Blue-Collar President," Scaramucci was asked by CNN's John Berman about the President's pattern of spreading falsehoods and what he would call someone who spreads lies. 

Scaramucci said such people are "like a rascal, like a scoundrel."

"I asked you what do you call someone who likes to lie? You said a scoundrel," Berman replied. "Another thing you could call someone who likes to lie is a liar. Is he a liar?"

"OK, well we both know that he's telling lies. So if you want me to say he's a liar, I'm happy to say he's a liar," Scaramucci said. 

"Nobody should lie. I'm not a big believer in lying. But politicians happen to lie," he said. 

"You want to say that to the camera? To the President?" Berman asks. 

"Nobody should lie," Scaramucci said after turning to [look] directly into a camera. "But, you know, you're a politician now, so politicians like when their lips are moving, and so all these people lie. But you should probably dial down the lying because you don't need to. You're doing a great job for the country. So dial that down and you'll be doing a lot better."

The former White House official said that there's "an entertainment aspect" to the President's lying. 

"When he goes to a rally like that, you know, there's a level of embellishment there because he's playing to the crowd," he said. 

See the interview here and click here to read previous posts about The Mooch. And for old times sake, do you remember this? The Mooch did his homework, but not well enough to actually keep his job:

The Mooch did his homework. pic.twitter.com/Wku0DF2ovd

— The Daily Show (@TheDailyShow) July 24, 2017

CNN's Monthly Power Rankings: October, 2018

On Monday CNN published their fourth "monthly power rankings" list of potential Democratic presidential candidates, which is mostly unchanged from last month. In fact the first five names on the list are exactly the same. (See last month's list here.)

Here are the rankings for October:

1. Elizabeth Warren (last month: 1)
2. Kamala Harris (last month: 2)
3. Joe Biden (last month: 3)
4. Kirstin Gillibrand (last month: 4)
5. Bernie Sanders (last month: 5)
6. Amy Klobuchar (last month: 7)
7. Cory Booker (last month: 6)
8. Eric Garcetti (last month: 8)
9. Steve Bullock (last month: 9)
10. Michael Bloomberg (last month: not on the list)

Eric Holder is included as an "honorable mention." Who was #10 last month? Texas Congressman Beto O'Rourke, who is running against Ted Cruz for a senate seat. CNN explains their rankings here.

There's also some news concerning a couple of candidates on our master list. Julian Castro said he's seriously thinking about running and in fact is "likely to do it." That's not enough to put him on the Declared Candidates list but I'll keep my eye on Mr. Castro. He spoke to CBS News this morning, see that interview here.

I'm also removing one name from the list. Jason Kander, who was running for mayor of Kansas City this year and was seen as a potential presidential candidate in 2020, has withdrawn from the mayor's race for health reasons:

"I truly appreciate all the support so many people in Kansas City and across the country have shown me since I started this campaign. But I can't work on myself and run a campaign the way I want to at the same time, so I'm choosing to work on my depression," he continued.  

Kander served as an Army Intelligence Officer in Afghanistan and returned from his tour about 11 years ago. He said that his "tour over there still impacted me every day."

... "I'm done hiding this from myself and the world. When I wrote in my book that I was lucky to not have PTSD, I was just trying to convince myself. And I wasn't sharing the full picture. I still have nightmares. I am depressed," Kander said. (Read the CNN story here.)

I give Mr. Kander enormous credit. For a politician to make this kind of admission is incredibly difficult and incredibly courageous. He's only 37. I'm cheering for him to get the help he needs and when he's ready, he can figure out what he wants to do next. For now, however, I'm moving him to the I'm Not Running list, leaving 36 names on the Potential list.

Potential Democratic Candidates:

1. Michael Avenatti (Lawyer, represents Stormy Daniels and others) added Oct. 1
2. Joe Biden (Former VP)
3. Michael Bloomberg (Former mayor of New York City)
4. Peter Buttigieg (Mayor of South Bend, Indiana) added Sept. 8
5. Cory Booker (New Jersey senator)
6. Sherrod Brown (Ohio senator)
7. Jerry Brown (Governor of California)
8. Steve Bullock (Governor of Montana)
9. Julian Castro (Former secretary of Housing and Urban Development) 
10. Mark Cuban (Businessman, owner of the Dallas Mavericks)
11. Bill de Blasio (Mayor of New York City)
12. Tulsi Gabbard (Congresswoman from Hawaii) added Sept. 8
13. Eric Garcetti (Mayor of Los Angeles) 
14. Kirsten Gillibrand (New York senator)
15. Luis Gutierrez (Congressman from Illinois)
16. Kamala Harris (California senator)
17. John Hickenlooper (Governor of Colorado) 
18. Eric Holder (Former Attorney General)
19. Robert Iger (Businessman, Chairman/CEO of Disney)
20. Jay Inslee (Governor of Washington)
21. Tim Kaine (Virginia senator, 2016 VP nominee)
22. Amy Klobuchar (Minnesota senator)
23. Mitch Landrieu (Mayor of New Orleans)
24. Terry McAuliffe (Former governor of Virginia)
25. Jeff Merkley (Oregon senator)
26. Seth Moulton (Congressman from Massachusetts) 
27. Chris Murphy (Connecticut senator)
28. Martin O'Malley (Former governor of Maryland, ran in 2016 primaries)
29. Beto O'Rourke (Texas Congressman, running for the U.S. Senate) added Sept. 13
30. Deval Patrick (Former governor of Massachusetts)
31. Tim Ryan (Congressman from Ohio) added Sept. 8
32. Bernie Sanders (Vermont senator, registered Independent, ran in 2016 primaries)
33. Howard Schultz (Businessman, former CEO of Starbucks)
34. Tom Steyer (Businessman) added Sept. 8
35. Elizabeth Warren (Massachusetts senator)
36. Mark Zuckerberg (Businessman, founder of Facebook)

Declared Democratic Candidates, in order of their announcement 

John Delaney (July 28, 2017)
Andrew Yang (November 6, 2017) added Sept. 8

I'm Not Running

Oprah Winfrey
Andrew Cuomo
Sheryl Sandberg, added Sept. 8
Jason Kander, added Oct. 17

Days until the midterm election: 20
Days until the presidential election: 748

Is CNN Turning Into The Jerry Springer Show? Or Fox News?

CNN asked women if they believe Judge Kavanaugh.

This was not the response they were expecting.

Wow. pic.twitter.com/RCgZBBzpDF

— Benny (@bennyjohnson) September 21, 2018

What this tweet doesn't say, and CNN doesn't make clear:

@PodSaveAmerica @jonlovett @jonfavs @TVietor08 I'm generally a fan of @AC360 and @CNN, but this is journalistic malpractice. Why is CNN painting these women as average Republican voters? https://t.co/l8hegWBS9W

— Shawn Brandt (@realshawnbrandt) September 21, 2018

Lourdes Castillo de la Peña, in the white sweater, is a Republican operative who worked on Ted Cruz's campaign and hosted a $1000/plate luncheon as a fundraiser.https://t.co/vFeBCzv371

— Shawn Brandt (@realshawnbrandt) September 21, 2018

Irina Villarino, sitting in the middle, is a Trump supporter pictured sitting immediately to his left in the two pictures in this article (which is about a roundtable he held about the tax cuts with small business owners in Florida):https://t.co/YRq0SQnkDv

— Shawn Brandt (@realshawnbrandt) September 21, 2018

Gina Sosa, second from the right, was a failed Republican candidate to win Iliana Ros-Lehtinen's seat open House seat in Florida's 27th (impressively, she got less than 2% of the primary vote!):https://t.co/QOhxxqaUcr

— Shawn Brandt (@realshawnbrandt) September 21, 2018

Are they trying to paint the average Republican as more extreme than they are? Are they trying to downplay how opposition to Kavanaugh is becoming mainstream even among moderates and many Republicans? Did their producers just not do their homework?

— Shawn Brandt (@realshawnbrandt) September 21, 2018

CNN's Monthly Power Rankings: September, 2018

CNN is out today with what they're calling their third "monthly power rankings" among potential 2020 Democratic candidates for president. I haven't seen or posted about the first two lists but I'll try to keep up going forward. Here's how the list looks today:

1. Elizabeth Warren
2. Kamala Harris
3. Joe Biden
4. Kirsten Gillibrand
5. Bernie Sanders
6. Cory Booker
7. Amy Klobuchar
8. Eric Garcetti
9. Steve Bullock
10. Beto O'Rourke

To do a little demographic sorting, four out of the 10 are women (Yay!,) two are African American, two are over 70 years old (Saunders, 77 and Biden, 75) and one turns 70 next June (Warren.) The youngest is Beto O'Rourke, who will turn 46 on September 26. Who's he? He's the Democratic candidate for a U.S. Senate seat in Texas, running against incumbent Ted Cruz, with at least the possibility of pulling an upset. To me, putting him on a top 10 list feels like a bit of a stretch, but here's how CNN explains it:

Yes, we know that O'Rouke is currently just a House member in the minority party. And that he is still less than a 50-50 bet in his challenge to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) this fall. BUT -- and yes, it is a big "but" -- if O'Rourke does beat Cruz, he will immediately be touted as one of the hottest things in Democratic politics. And buzz like that you simply can't buy. Plus, O'Rourke has already proven he is a remarkably strong fundraiser; he has brought in $23 million in less than two years even while refusing all donations from political action committees. (Read the article here.)

I've added Beto to my master list of potential candidates. 

1. Joe Biden (Former VP)
2. Michael Bloomberg (Former mayor of New York City)
3. Peter Buttigieg (Mayor of South Bend, Indiana) added Sept. 8
4. Cory Booker (New Jersey senator)
5. Sherrod Brown (Ohio senator)
6. Jerry Brown (Governor of California)
7. Steve Bullock (Governor of Montana)
8. Julian Castro (Former secretary of Housing and Urban Development) 
9. Mark Cuban (Businessman, owner of the Dallas Mavericks)
10. Bill de Blasio (Mayor of New York City)
11. Tulsi Gabbard (Congresswoman from Hawaii) added Sept. 8
12. Eric Garcetti (Mayor of Los Angeles) 
13. Kirsten Gillibrand (New York senator)
14. Luis Gutierrez (Congressman from Illinois)
15. Kamala Harris (California senator)
16. John Hickenlooper (Governor of Colorado) 
17. Eric Holder (Former Attorney General)
18. Robert Iger (Businessman, Chairman/CEO of Disney)
19. Jay Inslee (Governor of Washington)
20. Tim Kaine (Virginia senator, 2016 VP nominee)
21. Jason Kander (Former Secretary of State of Missouri)
22. Amy Klobuchar (Minnesota senator)
23. Mitch Landrieu (Mayor of New Orleans)
24. Terry McAuliffe (Former governor of Virginia)
25. Jeff Merkley (Oregon senator)
26. Seth Moulton (Congressman from Massachusetts) 
27. Chris Murphy (Connecticut senator)
28. Martin O'Malley (Former governor of Maryland, ran in 2016 primaries)
29. Beto O'Rourke (Texas Congressman, running for the U.S. Senate) added Sept. 13
30. Deval Patrick (Former governor of Massachusetts)
31. Tim Ryan (Congressman from Ohio) added Sept. 8
32. Bernie Sanders (Vermont senator, registered Independent, ran in 2016 primaries)
33. Howard Schultz (Businessman, former CEO of Starbucks)
34. Tom Steyer (Businessman) added Sept. 8
35. Elizabeth Warren (Massachusetts senator)
36. Mark Zuckerberg (Businessman, founder of Facebook)

Days until the mid-term election: 54 

Days until the presidential election: 782