After South Carolina - Updated

After disappointing finishes in yesterday's South Carolina primary, Tom Steyer and Pete Buttigieg have ended their campaigns. Keep an eye on Buttigieg, in particular, because I'm certain we'll be hearing from him again. (Pete could wait and run for president in 2056 and he'd still be younger than Bernie Sanders is right now.) Tulsi Gabbard hasn't formally dropped out, as far as I know, but she doesn't appear to be really in, either, leaving Warren, Klobuchar, Sanders, Biden and Bloomberg still active in the race. Here in Illinois we don't vote until March 17; early voting has started, which I usually do, but I'm waiting to vote until I know for sure who's still in the race after Super Tuesday. 

I've updated the lists below.

I'm Running Declared Democratic candidates, in order of their announcement:

1. Elizabeth Warren (12/31/18)
2. Tulsi Gabbard (1/11/19)
3. Bernie Sanders (2/19/19)
4. Joe Biden (4/25/19)
5. Michael Bloomberg (11/24/19)

I'm Not Running Anymore Declared candidates who have dropped out:

1. Richard Ojeda (1/25/19)
2. Eric Swalwell (7/8/19)
3. John Hickenlooper (8/15/19)
4. Jay Inslee  (8/21/19)
5. Seth Moulton (8/23/19)
6. Kirsten Gillibrand (8/28/19)
7. Howard Schultz (9/6/19) * Ran as an Independent   
8. Bill de Blasio (9/20/19)
9. Tim Ryan (10/24/19)
10. Beto O'Rourke (11/1/19)
11. Wayne Messam (11/20/19)
12. Joe Sestak (12/1/19)
13. Steve Bullock (12/2/19)
14. Kamala Harris (12/3/19)
15. Julián Castro (1/2/20)
16. Marianne Williamson (1/10/20)
17. Cory Booker (1/13/20)
18. John Delaney (1/31/20) 
19. Andrew Yang (2/11/20) 
20. Michael Bennet (2/11/20)
21. Deval Patrick (2/12/20)
22. Tom Steyer (3/1/20)
23. Pete Buttigieg (3/1/20)
24. Amy Klobuchar (3/2/20)

Days until the election: 246

Update on Monday afternoon: Senator Amy Klobuchar has also dropped out and has endorsed Joe Biden. Pete Buttigieg is expected to do the same this evening. I've updated the lists above. 

The Guessing Game - Updated/Mariska Hargitay

What will be on the cover of People this week? My guesses, in no particular order:

Prince Harry: Recreated the Abbey Road picture with Bon Jovi; Prince William cheered for his favorite team at a soccer game; Harry and Meghan didn't bring Archie to London; Princess Beatrice's wedding is being downscaled because of Prince Andrew's troubles
Maria Sharapova: Announced her retirement from professional tennis at
age 32
Hunter Biden: Back in the news with an article in the New York Times; dad Joe Biden scores a big win in the South Caroline primary (but I don't really think they'll put Joe Biden on the cover)
Oprah: Fell onstage:

View this post on Instagram

Empieza el show de #Oprah en L.A. con una inesperada caída que, sin embargo, no interrumpió la presentación. Afortunadamente ella está bien... el show debe continuar @oprah

A post shared by Los Angeles Times en Español (@latimesespanol) on Feb 29, 2020 at 10:58am PST

Lori Vallow: The Idaho mom whose two children are missing, she's now in jail in Hawaii
Vanessa Bryant: Upset by pictures of the crash site, taken by first responders
The new Bachelorette: The announcement will be made tomorrow morning on Good Morning, America: 

JUST ANNOUNCED: We're revealing the new @BacheloretteABC, LIVE MONDAY on @GMA! 🌹

Have questions for her? ASK in as a reply below! #TheBachelorette pic.twitter.com/EsNgiHvXgV

— Tony Morrison (@THETonyMorrison) February 28, 2020

So who will it be? Word on the street is that they're bringing back Clare Crawley. Who?? She came in second on Juan Pablo's season, which aired January-March, 2014. She's also been on Bachelor in Paradise and Bachelor Winter Games. (Truthfully, I barely remember her.) In a big change for the franchise, in which both the leads and the contestants have been getting younger and younger, Clare is 38, turning 39 on March 20. Are they really going to cast 25-30 men in their mid-20s? To put it a different way, are there really a whole bunch of late-30's men sitting around with nothing better to do than go on The Bachelorett? We'll see.

One more name: Pete Buttigieg. Within the last few minutes he ended his campaign for president. As a barrier-breaking candidate, and now that he's out of the race, I could see People running a story on him and his appealing husband Chasten.

Stories that appear on the new cover will be highlighted in green.

Update on Monday morning: It's Clare, age 38, soon to be 39, and I want to plead with ABC, please, please, please, don't fill the mansion with 20-something-year-old aimless men who want to be Instagram influencers. It just won't work. In an article at People.com titled "New Bachelorette Clare Crawley, 38, Says Her Age Is 'an Asset' In Search for Love," Clare says this:

“People always talk about, ‘Why would you go on the show again?'” she says. “But it’s common for people, especially my age, to go through relationships. And whether they are good or bad, you take something from them. [Each experience] has propelled me into a different level with myself.”

This time around, “I feel like my age is really an asset,” says Crawley. “I’ve gone through twists and turns and I know what I will and won’t put up with. Twenty-three-year-old Clare had no clue what I wanted. And I’m glad that wasn’t the end of my love story because I’m such a different woman now.”

When it comes to her suitors, fame-seekers need not apply.

“I get that there are a lot of perks that come along with The Bachelorette,” says Crawley. “But in the end, I want a man who I can bring home and watch TV with on a Friday night who doesn’t want to be in the spotlight.”

And ultimately, Crawley feels hopeful that this time, she’ll find The One.

“There have been plenty of times where I’m sitting alone on a Saturday night, thinking, ‘Am I ever going to find anyone?’ But I know what I want and what I’m looking for. And I’m ready to start the next part of my life.” 

Call me skeptical.  You can read more here and here.

Update #2. Apparently ABC is releasing some of the 25-year-olds, due to a "change in direction." Interesting: 

Another one of the 25 year olds that was on my list and originally told he was cast has now been removed from the show bc of his age. Casting is still happening this week. pic.twitter.com/L3hGx6PQgV

— RealitySteve (@RealitySteve) March 2, 2020

Update #3 on Tuesday morning. Hillary Clinton: A new documentary premieres on Hulu this month
Chris Matthews: The MSNBC star abruptly resigned live on air after criticism about the way he treats women
Rachel Lindsay: On the Women Tell All show last night, former Bachelorette Rachel delivered a powerful statement about bullying
James Lipton: The long-time host of Inside the Actor's Studio, died at age 93

Update #4 on Wednesday morning. It's Mariska Hargitay, her third cover story in less than two years, this one tied to her work as an advocate for victims of sexual assault. The logo titled "Women Changing the World" looks new to me, and as of about 9.30 Wednesday morning, I don't see any other articles at People.com that appear to be tied to the theme. Maybe we'll see more going forward. Nothing on this cover was on the Guessing Game list, and for the second week in a row, there are no headlines about the royal family. Next week's cover should feature Bachelor Peter Weber and one, both or neither of his final two women, Madison and Hannah Ann. 

Issue dated March 16, 2020: Mariska Hargitay


Mariska's previous covers:

Issue dated June 24, 2019


Issue dated April 9, 2018



Last year at this time: Issue dated March 18, 2019

"Buttigieg Lights A Fire In The Race For President"

The headline above is currently the lead story at CNN.com, linked to an article by CNN Editor-at-Large and political reporter Chris Cillizza. Here, in its entirety, is what the article says:

Don't look now, but a(nother) skinny kid with a funny name is turning heads in the presidential race.

In 2008, it was Barack Obama. In 2020, it's Pete Buttigieg.

Buttigieg, the 37-year-old, married gay mayor of South Bend, Indiana, is, at the moment, the hottest candidate in the Democratic presidential field -- drawing rave reviews everywhere he goes.

"Mika and I have been overwhelmed by the reaction @PeteButtigieg got after being on the show," tweeted "Morning Joe" co-host Joe Scarborough following "Mayor Pete's" appearance on the program earlier this week. "The only other time in twelve years that we heard from as many people about a guest was after @BarackObama appeared on Morning Joe."

That's obviously a tough comparison for Buttigieg -- or any Democratic politician -- to live up to. After all, no matter what you think of Obama's eight years as president, it's impossible to deny his massive natural abilities as a candidate. And there are lots and lots of differences between the two men: one black, one white, one a top-tier candidate from day he announced, the other (still) a long-shot, etc.

But Scarborough is far from the only person raving about Buttigieg. Beginning with a star turn at a CNN-sponsored town hall at South by Southwest in Austin, Texas, earlier this month, praise for Mayor Pete has been bubbling up from every corner of the party. And all of that positive attention seems to be feeding on itself and producing tangible results for his campaign.

Buttigieg announced last week that he has already crossed the 65,000-donor threshold that qualifies him for the upcoming Democratic presidential debates. A story about him speaking conversational Norwegian went viral. He'll be on "The View" -- for a second time! -- on Friday.

In short: Everything is falling into place for Buttigieg. (One thing that might bring him back down to earth? If Buttigieg has a less-than-impressive first quarter of fundraising -- the deadline to raise cash is March 31.)

The reasons for the attention he's drawing and excitement he's creating aren't hard to figure out; He's young, charismatic and personable. He knows how to talk like a regular person -- an underrated trait in a field filled with front-running senators. And he has a remarkable resume: Rhodes scholar, military veteran, gay mayor of his hometown.

Then there's this: Buttigieg has ZERO expectations about how he will do in this race. When he started running, virtually no one outside of South Bend had even heard of him. When your candidacy isn't weighed down by heavy expectations, you can play fast and loose. You don't obsess over every little thing you say or do. Your every word isn't parsed by the national news media. You can make a mistake (or two) without it being painted as a death blow for your candidacy.

And, this: People l-o-v-e a good underdog story. Sure, they might be drawn to the bigger names like Joe Biden and Beto O'Rourke, but Americans will never, ever not be drawn to a scrappy candidate who is charging at the big boys and demanding that he be included in their club. The spunky outsider is in our DNA. And Buttigieg fits that profile to a T.

Now. It's March 21, 2019. No one will cast a vote in the primary process for 11-ish months. In that time, Buttigieg's star could burn out. It could wax and wane. (Yes, I am confusing star and moon metaphors -- but you get the idea.) In six months, we might look back and think he had his moment too soon.

But Buttigieg is unquestionably having a moment right now. That's something that many people in this field will never have. Or if they do have a moment, it's for the wrong reasons. (Looking at you, John Hickenlooper.) Winning presidential campaigns are those that create -- or benefit from -- positive moments and turn them into something more, a sustainable bid for the highest office in the country.

It's not at all clear whether Buttigieg and his team can make that leap. But it is clear that he has a chance, right now, to do so.

Pete's husband Chasten replied to the Joe Scarborough tweet: 

Gosh. It’s gonna be hard to rise to this during our “so what did you do today?” chat tonight. https://t.co/6HPFxM4V6w

— Chasten Buttigieg (@Chas10Buttigieg) March 21, 2019

The Guessing Game

What will be on the cover of People this week? My guesses:

Felicity Huffman and/or Lori Loughlin: The college admissions scandal
Joe Giudice: Released from prison, will he be deported?
Paris Jackson: Hospitalized for something or other
Jacinda Ardern: The New Zealand mosque shootings. Ardern is the 39-year-old Prime Minister; she has committed to changing gun laws in response to the event
Whoopi Goldberg: An emotional return to the The View
Chelsea Clinton: Confronted at a vigil for victims of the NZ shootings
Elizabeth Holmes: The CEO of Theranos, which turned out to be a fraud
Beto O'Rourke: Announces he's running for president, not greeted with universal acclaim. (I wrote about it here.) I remain much more impressed with Pete Buttigieg
Diane Downs and/or her daughter Becky Babcock: Downs was charged with murder in 1983 for killing one of her children and attempting to kill two others. Downs remains in prison, Babcock is now an adult, she's speaking out on ABC show 2020 this Friday night
Meghan McCain: Slams Trump after he disparages her late father via tweet

Stories that appear on the new issue will be highlighted in green.

Wednesday morning update. See the new cover, featuring Kristen Bell and Dax Shepard, here.

Someone Who Has Never Slept With A Porn Star...

Well this is a nice thing to wake up to: “The best political autobiography since Barack Obama” https://t.co/9HeA5YfrMQ

— Pete Buttigieg (@PeteButtigieg) March 17, 2019

The article starts with this: 

Imagine waking up on 4 November 2020 to discover America has elected a man whose knowledge ranges from the Puritan origins of the phrase “city on the hill” to the details of how to modernize sewers with wi-fi connected sensors.

Imagine that this man is also an Afghanistan veteran who understands that “truly grasping and defeating the logic of suicide terrorism” was beyond the capacity of Congress or the Bush administration after 9/11; a student who connected the dots in high school between the values of his theology class and those of Amnesty International; a graduate of Harvard and a Rhodes scholar who got a first at Oxford; the mayor of a small midwestern city who managed to revitalize it in less than eight years; someone who has never slept with a porn star, and who married the very first person he fell in love with.

... and ends with this:

Is it too much to imagine that America could elect a gay president? I don’t think so. If the disaster of George Bush’s administration was sufficient to elect the first black president, I believe the catastrophe of Donald Trump could be just enough to put the first openly gay man in the White House. Especially a man like this. (Read the entire article here.) 

The 2020 Illinois primary is exactly one year from today. (When I wrote in my previous post, below, that "I can only imagine where we'll be a year from now," I didn't realize that March 17, 2020 will be primary day in Illinois.) Is having Election Day and St. Patrick's Day on the same day a good idea? Possibly not but that's a topic for another post. 

A lot will happen in the next year and I have no idea who I'll actually vote for. But I continue to be intrigued by Mayor Pete. 

Beto Is Running - Updated

Former Texas Congressman Beto O'Rourke has announced that he's running for president, making him number 16 on my list of declared candidates.

Jonathan Chait, in a New York magazine article titled "Beto O'Rourke Has a Good Reason He's Running. He Just Can't Say It," says Beto's main reason for running is that he's good at running:   

The rationale is the tricky thing. O’Rourke’s actual reason for running is perfectly clear: He is a highly charismatic and inspirational campaigner. (Read the article here.)

Slate piles on with a similar argument in an article titled "Beto 2020 Has No Reason to Exist":

O’Rourke [enters] the race as a man without a clear political ideology, a signature legislative achievement, a major policy issue, or a concrete agenda for the country. Those in the know tell the Atlantic that Beto is planning to run as a candidate “offering hope that America can be better than its current partisan and hate-filled politics, and that the country can come together,” but that—brace yourself—he hasn’t yet “landed on how he’ll propose to actually make that happen.” That’s more of the same empty words Beto’s been offering in public since his loss to Cruz. “I don’t know where I am on a [political] spectrum, and I almost could care less,” he said at a recent stop in Wisconsin. “I just want to get to better things for this country.” (Read it here.)

Finally, for now at least, Washington Post reporter Dan Zak had an interesting thought:

He’s going to be a help to Buttigieg, whose humility, calm and adult-iness will become more and more attractive. https://t.co/g06xLz0o23

— Dan Zak (@MrDanZak) March 14, 2019

I've moved O'Rourke to the I'm Running list

Note: I recently split the Potential list into two sections, those who are still doing some of the things potential candidates do, and those whose names were mentioned as potential candidates at some point, but aren't doing anything that looks like running. 

Potential Democratic Candidates, in alphabetical order:

1. Michael Bennet (Colorado Senator) added 2/10/19
2. Joe Biden (Former VP)
3. Steve Bullock (Governor of Montana)
4. Bill de Blasio (Mayor of New York City)
5. Terry McAuliffe (Former governor of Virginia)
6. Seth Moulton (Congressman from Massachusetts) 
7. Chris Murphy (Connecticut senator)
8. Eric Swalwell (Congressman from California) added Nov. 8

I'm Probably Not Running: Long-shot candidates who don't appear to be doing any of the things an actual candidate must do: 

1. Stacey Abrams (2018 candidate for Georgia governor) added 1/3/19
2. Jerry Brown (former Governor of California)
3. Mark Cuban (Businessman, owner of the Dallas Mavericks)
4. Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson (Actor) added Nov. 10
5. Tim Kaine (Virginia senator, 2016 VP nominee)
6. Joe Kennedy (Congressman from Massachusetts) added Nov. 10
7. John Kerry (former Secretary of State, 2004 Democratic nominee) added Nov. 10 
8. Tim Ryan (Congressman from Ohio) added Sept. 8
9. Mark Warner (Virginia senator) added Nov. 10
10. Mark Zuckerberg (Businessman, founder of Facebook)

I'm Running: Declared Democratic Candidates, in order of their announcement

1. John Delaney (7/28/17) 
2. Andrew Yang (11/6/17) 
3. Elizabeth Warren (12/31/18)
4. Tulsi Gabbard (1/11/19)
5. Julián Castro (1/12/19)
6. Kirsten Gillibrand (1/16/19)  
7. Kamala Harris (1/21/19)
8. Pete Buttigieg (1/23/19)
9. Howard Schultz (1/29/19) * Running as an Independent 
10. Marianne Williamson (1/30/19)
11. Cory Booker (2/1/19)
12. Amy Klobuchar (2/10/19)
13. Bernie Sanders (2/19/19)
14. Jay Inslee  (3/1/19)
15. John Hickenlooper (3/4/19)
16. Beto O'Rourke (3/14/19)

I'm Not Running

Oprah Winfrey

Andrew Cuomo
Sheryl Sandberg, added Sept. 8
Jason Kander, added Oct. 17
Robert Iger, added Oct. 22
Michael Avenatti, December 4, 2018
Deval Patrick, December 5, 2018
Martin O'Malley, January 3, 2019
Luis Gutierrez, added January 7, 2019
Tom Steyer, January 9, 2019
Bob Casey, January 19, 2019
Eric Garcetti, January 29, 2019
Andrew Gillum, January 29, 2019
Mitch Landrieu, added February 11, 2019
Eric Holder, 3/4/19
Jeff Merkley, 3/5/19
Sherrod Brown, 3/7/10

I'm Not Running Anymore: Declared candidates who have dropped out

Richard Ojeda (1/25/19)

Days until Election Day: 599

Saturday afternoon update. Washington Post columnist Kathleen Parker has some fun with Beto's candidacy: 

It must be a grown-up thing, but every time I see Beto O’Rourke, I want to fix him a hamburger. He’s precious.

And, if my eyes serve me, he’s hungry.

Call it maternal instinct; call it age. But, let’s call the Texas Democrat’s nascent presidential campaign what it is: a youthful folly. If only the media machine weren’t already doing its dangedest to advance a narrative primarily of its own making. No one in recent memory, save for Donald Trump, has received so much free advertising by simply showing up.

From near-constant chatter on cable-news shows to a recent cover-story splash in Vanity Fair, O’Rourke is the newest celebrity politician. In a telling quote in the magazine article, he declared: “Man, I’m just born to be in it.”

... None of this is to say he isn’t perfectly qualified to be president of the United States. O’Rourke, after all, served three terms in Congress and barely lost his Senate bid last year to Republican Ted Cruz. Previously, he served as an El Paso city councilman and, otherwise, has worked for a start-up Internet service provider, been a nanny, art mover, proofreader and, when time allowed, a writer of short stories and, briefly, the publisher of an alternative weekly. He also played bass in a punk-rock band called Foss. I’m no soothsayer, but I’d gamble on a late-night-show bass performance real soon.

In fairness, as columnists like to say when they’re midway through a political evisceration, he is precious. To the untrained eye, O’Rourke’s jumping, dancing, lurching pogo-stick histrionics seem more than high-energy. I’d offer a beer with that hamburger, but I fear being accused of contributing to the delinquency of a minor leaguer. (Search O’Rourke’s DWI and burglary arrest history if you want to.) Read the column here.)

How Do You Say It? - Updated

Slate.com has a fun article about how to pronounce the names of some of the current presidential candidates:

Pete Buttigieg: Pete Boot-edge-edge

Kamala Harris: Comma-la Harris

Julián Castro: Who-lee-AN Castro

Kirsten Gillibrand: KEER-sten JILL-uh-brand

Amy Klobuchar: Amy KLOW-bu-shar

Read the article here.

Thursday morning update. An addition:

Beto O'Rourke: Bet-oh O'Rourke (not Bait-oh, which is how I was pronouncing it in my head.)

Friday afternoon update #2. The Wall Street Journal is on the pronunciation issue too, and Pete weighs in:

Pretty sure I’m the front-runner on this one.... https://t.co/ejRsMZ1XMw

— Pete Buttigieg (@PeteButtigieg) February 15, 2019

Still Intrigued...

"I don't have to go on a tour to find out what's happening in middle America, I just go to Target."
IN Mayor @PeteButtigieg would be the youngest and first openly gay person ever elected President.

"I'm aware of what it represents," he tells @KateBolduan.https://t.co/C41aDp1ctW pic.twitter.com/hCqT4kWmTn

— OutFrontCNN (@OutFrontCNN) February 9, 2019

Pete Buttigieg Is Running - Updated

photo credit: Joshua Lott/The Washington Post

South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who has signaled for months that he would try to leap from local to presidential politics, announced Wednesday that he will join the burgeoning cast of Democratic candidates in the 2020 race.

Buttigieg made his plans official in a video and email sent to supporters early Wednesday, before taking part in the U.S. Conference of Mayors meeting in Washington, D.C.

He announced in December that he would not seek a third term as mayor of the Indiana city, a move widely seen as a precursor to a presidential run. He said Wednesday he was setting up an exploratory committee for president, the legal mechanism allowing him to raise and spend money on behalf of his campaign.

Buttigieg suffused his announcement with references to his youth and the generational exception he represents compared to most of the Democratic field. He turned 37 on Saturday, making him the youngest entrant so far in the presidential race.

From the Washington Post, read the article here. And here's the tweet from Pete:

I launched a presidential exploratory committee because it is a season for boldness and it is time to focus on the future. Are you ready to walk away from the politics of the past?

Join the team at https://t.co/Xlqn10brgH. pic.twitter.com/K6aeOeVrO7

— Pete Buttigieg (@PeteButtigieg) January 23, 2019

Pete Buttigieg would appear to be the longest of longshots but from what I've read about him he's an impressive man. Can the mayor of the 301st largest city in America get elected president? Frankly, I'd say that it's not out of the question. Click here and here to read my previous posts about Buttigieg. 

I've moved Pete to the I'm Running list. 

Potential Democratic Candidates, in alphabetical order:

Reminder: Not every name on this list is "viable" as a future nominee or president, or even seriously interested in running, necessarily. It's just a list of every name I've ever seen mentioned, anywhere, as someone who might run in 2020.

1. Stacey Abrams (2018 candidate for Georgia governor) added 1/3/19
2. Joe Biden (Former VP)
3. Michael Bloomberg (Former mayor of New York City)
4. Cory Booker (New Jersey senator)
5. Sherrod Brown (Ohio senator)
6. Jerry Brown (former Governor of California)
7. Steve Bullock (Governor of Montana)
8. Mark Cuban (Businessman, owner of the Dallas Mavericks)
9. Bill de Blasio (Mayor of New York City)
10. Eric Garcetti (Mayor of Los Angeles) 
11. Andrew Gillum (Former mayor of Tallahassee, FL, 2018 candidate for governor) added Dec. 11
12. John Hickenlooper (Governor of Colorado) 
13. Eric Holder (Former Attorney General)
14. Jay Inslee (Governor of Washington)
15. Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson (Actor) added Nov. 10
16. Tim Kaine (Virginia senator, 2016 VP nominee)
17. Joe Kennedy (Congressman from Massachusetts) added Nov. 10
18. John Kerry (former Secretary of State, 2004 Democratic nominee) added Nov. 10 
19. Amy Klobuchar (Minnesota senator)
20. Mitch Landrieu (Mayor of New Orleans)
21. Terry McAuliffe (Former governor of Virginia)
22. Jeff Merkley (Oregon senator)
23. Seth Moulton (Congressman from Massachusetts) 
24. Chris Murphy (Connecticut senator)
25. Beto O'Rourke (Texas Congressman, ran a close race for a U.S. senate seat from Texas) added Sept. 13
26. Tim Ryan (Congressman from Ohio) added Sept. 8
27. Bernie Sanders (Vermont senator, registered Independent, ran in 2016 primaries)
28. Howard Schultz (Businessman, former CEO of Starbucks)
29. Eric Swalwell (Congressman from California) added Nov. 8
30. Mark Warner (Virginia senator) added Nov. 10
31. Marianne Williamson (Author, teacher, spiritual leader) added Dec. 11
32. Mark Zuckerberg (Businessman, founder of Facebook)

I'm Running: Declared Democratic Candidates, in order of their announcement

1. John Delaney (7/28/17) 
2. Andrew Yang (11/6/17) 
3. Elizabeth Warren (12/31/18)
4. Tulsi Gabbard (1/11/19)
5. Julián Castro (1/12/19)
6. Kirsten Gillibrand (1/16/19)  
7. Kamala Harris (1/21/19)
8. Pete Buttigieg (1/23/19)

I'm Not Running

Oprah Winfrey

Andrew Cuomo
Sheryl Sandberg, added Sept. 8
Jason Kander, added Oct. 17
Robert Iger, added Oct. 22
Michael Avenatti, December 4, 2018
Deval Patrick, December 5, 2018
Martin O'Malley, January 3, 2019
Luis Gutierrez, added January 7, 2019
Tom Steyer, January 9, 2019
Bob Casey, January 19, 2019

Days until Election Day: 649

Update. Almost five years ago, on March 10, 2014, The Washington Post published an article titled The most interesting mayor you've never heard of:  

Mayor Pete Buttigieg had to balance a tricky set of themes in his State of the City speech on February 12. Not only did he have to lay out his agenda for the upcoming year, he also had to address the fact he wouldn’t be in South Bend for most of it. “With the minor exception of some home improvement projects waiting for me at my house," he said, "nothing underway in this City will stop or pause during the next seven months, and I know I will return home to an improved administration and an even stronger community.”

Two weeks later, he handed the city off to newly appointed Deputy Mayor Mark Neal, who would watch over the Indiana city of 101,000 while Buttigieg was serving in Afghanistan. Buttigieg is currently training in Chicago, readying to deploy as an "individual augmentee," or a unit of one, doing intelligence work with the Navy Reserves.

...He was valedictorian and class president of his graduating class at St. Joseph's High School in South Bend. That year, he also won the national John F. Kennedy Profile in Courage Essay Contest, which he wrote about Bernie Sanders. At Harvard, where he graduated in 2004, Buttigieg was active with the College Democrats and president of the Institute of Politics Student Advisory Committee. In 2005, he headed to Oxford University to study politics, philosophy and economics as a Rhodes Scholar. He worked on congressional campaigns in Indiana, Arizona, and New Mexico, and John Kerry’s 2004 presidential campaign. In 2009, he ran for Indiana state treasurer, losing to future failed Senate candidate Richard Mourdock, before handily winning a crowded Democratic mayoral primary in 2011. (Read the entire article here.) 

Buttigieg was subsequently reelected for a second term as mayor and is now running for president. If you can't tell, I'm intrigued; check out Buttigieg's website here.

Update #2 on January 25. Former West Virginia state senator Richard Ojeda has dropped out of the race, making him the first name on my newly created "I'm Not Running Anymore" list. Read more here. 

I'm Not Running Anymore: Declared candidates who have dropped out 

Richard Ojeda (1/25/19)

Days until Election Day: 647

The First Millennial President?

Remember this tweet, dated January 4?

NEW: At an off-the-record with journalists and political types in Manhattan last night at @MollyJongFast's house, South Bend Mayor @PeteButtigieg left the distinct impression he's not only running for president in 2020 but could announce very soon, per attendees.

— Shane Goldmacher (@ShaneGoldmacher) January 5, 2019

Pete Buttigieg hasn't announced yet but a new article in the Washington Post Magazine, titled "Could Pete Buttigieg Become The First Millennial President?," sure makes it sound like he's running. Who's Pete Buttigieg, exactly? The article includes this: 

[T]he son of a Maltese immigrant father and an Army brat mom who grew up in decaying South Bend, got himself into Harvard, summer-interned for Ted Kennedy, worked for John Kerry’s presidential campaign, won a Rhodes Scholarship, learned Arabic in Tunisia, landed a jet-setting consultant’s job, left it to return to his beat-up hometown and become the youngest mayor of a midsize U.S. city, transformed that city into a national model of renewal, and then — deep breath — volunteered for active duty in Afghanistan while serving as mayor, came out as gay in the local newspaper, married a schoolteacher live on YouTube, turned heads in a dark-horse bid to lead the Democratic National Committee, and had the New York Times’s Frank Bruni gushing about him as potentially the “First Gay President”— all by age 36.

... this: 

He has clearly made a close study of how Barack Obama, Bill Clinton and John F. Kennedy took their nontraditional paths to the presidency at young ages. “When you run young, your face says you represent change,” he says. But he doesn’t want to stop at symbolism: His message for 2020 will be centered on a clean, sharp break with the Lite Republicanism that Democrats embraced in the 1990s. While older voters still tell pollsters they favor keeping taxes low and ambitions modest, millennials overwhelmingly support Medicare-for-all, free college, heavy spending to tackle poverty and climate change, and major infrastructure investments — social democracy, in a nutshell.

Though Buttigieg prefers to label himself — if he must label himself — a “progressive Democrat,” he can deliver a spontaneous dissertation on why young Americans say they prefer socialism to capitalism that would do Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez proud. Nobody should mistake it for youthful idealism or recklessness, he says. “I think the new generation that emerges now will have a different kind of seriousness about the future,” he says.

... and this:

For all his aw-shucksiness, if Buttigieg has the least bit of doubt that he’s ready to make the leap to commander in chief, at an age that barely qualifies him constitutionally for the job, it’s impossible to detect. He has often been urged to run for Congress — the next logical steppingstone — but he sees it as a dead end. “I would find it demoralizing,” he says. David Axelrod, Obama’s political guru, is among the powerhouse Democrats who see no reason Buttigieg should wait. Axelrod’s first Pete sighting was in November 2015, when the young mayor was given the John F. Kennedy New Frontier Award at Harvard. “He spoke without a note in front of him and gave one of the most stirring speeches I’ve heard,” Axelrod told the South Bend Tribune. “He has that gift.” Axelrod has given Buttigieg the same advice he gave Obama after his famous Democratic National Convention keynote speech in 2004: The biggest mistake politicians make is missing their moment by hesitating.

... then ends with this: 

While others might see his age and inexperience as fatal liabilities, Buttigieg recognizes that the path to the White House often evolves. It’s actually been a very long time since Democrats recaptured power without a candidate who didn’t represent a departure from political norms: the young, Catholic JFK; the up-from-nowhere Southerner Jimmy Carter; the “New Democrat” Bill Clinton; and Barack Obama, the African American just a few years removed from being an Illinois state senator.

Could it now be time for a millennial? When we catch up in early December, Buttigieg says he saw “glimmers” of it in 2018: “We saw indications that it’s okay to talk about our values as Democrats again. That the politics of conviction that appealed to young people, with Bernie in 2016, can also be articulated successfully by the next generation.”

I mention that the day before, Biden, on his own book tour, had proclaimed himself “the most qualified person in the country to be president.” Buttigieg laughs. “So was Hillary,” he says. Game on.

You can read the article here; I'm going to be keeping an eye on Pete Buttigieg. 

And one more thing. The article also says this:

Obama is also a Buttigieg fan. In his 2017 New Yorker exit interview, the former president named Buttigieg as one of four Democrats who would lead the party forward.

I was curious about who the other three might be, so I googled the New Yorker article: 

Obama insisted that there were gifted Democratic politicians out there, but that many were new to the scene. He mentioned Kamala Harris, the new senator from California; Pete Buttigieg, a gay Rhodes Scholar and Navy veteran who has twice been elected mayor of South Bend, Indiana; Tim Kaine; and Senator Michael Bennet, of Colorado. (Read it here.) 

Martin O'Malley Won't Run In 2020 - Updated

I will not be running for President in 2020, but I hope Beto O’Rourke does. It’s time for a new generation of leadership. https://t.co/6vDbAUvzDt

— Martin O'Malley (@MartinOMalley) January 3, 2019

Former Maryland governor and 2016 candidate Martin O'Malley says he won't run in 2020. I'm moving him to the I'm Not Running list.  

Potential Democratic Candidates, in alphabetical order:

Reminder: Not every name on this list is "viable" as a future nominee or president, or even seriously interested in running, necessarily. It's just a list of every name I've ever seen mentioned, anywhere, as someone who might run in 2020.

1. Stacey Abrams (2018 candidate for Georgia governor) added 1/3/19
2. Joe Biden (Former VP)
3. Michael Bloomberg (Former mayor of New York City)
4. Peter Buttigieg (Mayor of South Bend, Indiana) added Sept. 8
5. Cory Booker (New Jersey senator)
6. Sherrod Brown (Ohio senator)
7. Jerry Brown (Governor of California)
8. Steve Bullock (Governor of Montana)
9. Mark Cuban (Businessman, owner of the Dallas Mavericks)
10. Bill de Blasio (Mayor of New York City)
11. Tulsi Gabbard (Congresswoman from Hawaii) added Sept. 8
12. Eric Garcetti (Mayor of Los Angeles) 
13. Kirsten Gillibrand (New York senator)
14. Andrew Gillum (Former mayor of Tallahassee, FL, 2018 candidate for governor) added Dec. 11
15. Kamala Harris (California senator)
16. John Hickenlooper (Governor of Colorado) 
17. Eric Holder (Former Attorney General)
18. Jay Inslee (Governor of Washington)
19. Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson (Actor) added Nov. 10
20. Tim Kaine (Virginia senator, 2016 VP nominee)
21. Joe Kennedy (Congressman from Massachusetts) added Nov. 10
22. John Kerry (former Secretary of State, 2004 Democratic nominee) added Nov. 10 
23. Amy Klobuchar (Minnesota senator)
24. Mitch Landrieu (Mayor of New Orleans)
25. Terry McAuliffe (Former governor of Virginia)
26. Jeff Merkley (Oregon senator)
27. Seth Moulton (Congressman from Massachusetts) 
28. Chris Murphy (Connecticut senator)
29. Beto O'Rourke (Texas Congressman, running for the U.S. Senate) added Sept. 13
30. Tim Ryan (Congressman from Ohio) added Sept. 8
31. Bernie Sanders (Vermont senator, registered Independent, ran in 2016 primaries)
32. Howard Schultz (Businessman, former CEO of Starbucks)
33. Tom Steyer (Businessman) added Sept. 8
34. Eric Swalwell (Congressman from California) added Nov. 8
35. Mark Warner (Virginia senator) added Nov. 10
36. Marianne Williamson (Author, teacher, spiritual leader) added Dec. 11
37. Mark Zuckerberg (Businessman, founder of Facebook)

I'm Running: Declared Democratic Candidates, in order of their announcement

1. John Delaney (7/28/17) 
2. Andrew Yang (11/6/17) 
3. Richard Ojeda (11/11/18)
4. Elizabeth Warren (12/31/18)
5. Julian Castro (added 1/3/19) Note: Castro hasn't officially announced, but he did form an exploratory committee, which is usually a good indication that someone is running. 

I'm Not Running

Oprah Winfrey

Andrew Cuomo
Sheryl Sandberg, added Sept. 8
Jason Kander, added Oct. 17
Robert Iger, added Oct. 22
Michael Avenatti, December 4, 2018
Deval Patrick, December 5, 2018
Martin O'Malley, January 3, 2019
Luis Gutierrez, added January 7, 2019 

Meanwhile, in an article posted yesterday, Slate says these seven Democrats have early leads: 

Joe Biden

Bernie Sanders

Elizabeth Warren

Beto O'Rourke

Kamala Harris

Cory Booker

Amy Klobuchar

The article lays out strengths and liabilities for each of the seven and ends with this: 

Those are just seven of the Democrats who could mount a credible primary campaign this year and next. Plenty more are eager to try. Despite their low polling numbers now, you’re going to hear more about Kirsten Gillibrand and Sherrod Brown and Julián Castro (who recently launched his exploratory committee). A national newcomer like Andrew Gillum or Stacey Abrams could make a splash should they decide to get in. Democrats with a lower national profile but without a recent electoral loss on their record could also attract the spotlight, be it Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti or Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper. And there are those who could bankroll their own campaigns to consider: former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, environmental activist Tom Steyer, and former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz, among them. The only thing that would truly be a surprise in 2019 is if there were no surprises. But the seven on this short list can reasonably expect one thing, should they decide to run: Their early popularity will provide an initial platform to make their case directly to the Democratic base. The other could-be candidates won’t necessarily have that luxury. Their immediate concern, then, won’t be how their pitch will be received but whether enough primary voters will even be able to hear it over the competing noise.

Note: I hadn't seen that Julian Castro had launched an exploratory committee; I'm moving him to the I'm Running list. I also hadn't seen Stacey Abrams, who ran for governor of Georgia, as a potential candidate, but Slate says it's possible so I'm adding her to my Potential Candidate list. Click here to read the Slate article. 

And one more thing. With a Republican incumbent in 2020 most of the suspense is on the Democratic side, but not all of it. Some Republicans would clearly prefer that Donald not be their nominee in 2020. Daniel Drezner shares some thoughts at the Washington Post: 

To understand what is going on, one must appreciate the following facts: (A) Sitting presidents who face a primary challenge tend not to win reelection. See: Lyndon Johnson, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush. (B) The primary challenger usually does not win, either. See: Eugene McCarthy, Ronald Reagan (who didn’t win in 1976), Ted Kennedy and Patrick Buchanan. (C) Reagan aside, within party politics it’s better to be the person cleaning up the mess than the person making the mess.

What I suspect Romney, Haley, Kasich and Hogan are all doing is planning for one of two contingencies. The first is that Trump resigns or is forced out of office due to one of his many mounting scandals, in which case Vice President Pence will be about as strong as Georgy Malenkov. The second is to wait for someone else to make a kamikaze run at Trump during the 2020 GOP primary, paving the way for a less controversial run at the nomination. This requires an odd game of signaling visibility without moving first. What they all need is the equivalent of a pace car, a politician willing to challenge Trump in such a way as to facilitate more viable entrants. But none of them want to be the one to fall on their sword. (Read the article here.) 

Days until the presidential election: 669 

Update on Saturday morning. South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg is on the Potential list, above, and yesterday I saw this tweet: 

NEW: At an off-the-record with journalists and political types in Manhattan last night at @MollyJongFast's house, South Bend Mayor @PeteButtigieg left the distinct impression he's not only running for president in 2020 but could announce very soon, per attendees.

— Shane Goldmacher (@ShaneGoldmacher) January 5, 2019

Normally the mayor of a relatively small city would be the longest of longshots but if a reality TV star can get elected president, anyone can, right? 

Things will only get more hectic in the days ahead, in terms of who's running and who's not. I won't see every little thing that's written about every potential candidate but when I do see something interesting I'll add it to the blog. I'll also try to keep the lists up-to-date, in particular the "I'm Running" list of declared candidates. 

Days until the election: 667

Update #2 on Monday morning. An interesting tweet about Joe Biden:

The biggest thing happening in the Democratic Party right now is a huge surge of women’s activism. I don’t think that bodes well for the candidate (Biden) widely seen as bungling the Anita Hill-Clarence Thomas hearing.

— Phil Klinkner (@pklinkne) January 7, 2019

Update #3: Gutierrez isn't running. I've moved him to the "I'm Not Running" list.

Luis Gutierrez announces new role as @CNN commentator https://t.co/4J2f6LInw5

— Natasha Korecki (@natashakorecki) January 7, 2019

Update #4, on January 8: Up until a couple of minutes ago, when I read a Washington Post article by Jonathan Capehart titled "Everyone's talking about Beto and Biden. But here's another 'B' you should know," I didn't know that Pete Buttigieg is gay and married to a man named Chasten Glezman. (Read it here.) I also didn't know that on June 11, 2016 New York Times columnist Frank Bruni published a column about Buttigieg titled "The first gay president?" It starts with this: 

South Bend, Ind. — IF you went into some laboratory to concoct a perfect Democratic candidate, you’d be hard pressed to improve on Pete Buttigieg, the 34-year-old second-term mayor of this Rust Belt city, where he grew up and now lives just two blocks from his parents.

Education? He has a bachelor’s from Harvard and a master’s from Oxford, where he was a Rhodes Scholar.

Public service? He’s a lieutenant in the Navy Reserve. For seven months in 2014, he was deployed to Afghanistan — and took an unpaid leave from work in order to go.

He regularly attends Sunday services at his Episcopal church. He runs half-marathons. His TEDx talk on urban innovation in South Bend is so polished and persuasive that by the end of it, you’ve hopped online to price real estate in the city. (Read the column here.)

We've had the first black president. Which presidential barrier will be the next to fall? A woman? A Jewish man? A gay man? (A gay Jewish woman? In my dreams.) Will 2020 be another barrier-busting year? Possibly.   

Days until the election: 664

Time For A List - Updated

The 2018 mid-term election is two months from yesterday, which means that the 2020 presidential campaign starts two months from today. Oh, I know, the unofficial/hidden 2020 campaign started 17 seconds after you-know-who was declared the winner in 2016, but once the mid-terms are over the real campaigning will start. After all, November 3, 2020 is just 788 days away.

First, a look back. There were 17 declared Republican candidates in 2016, and seven other Republicans who pondered running then formally said no. Do you remember them all? Never fear, here are the lists, and note that the "I'm running" announcement dates were all in 2015; the "I'm not running" dates were in 2014 (Portman) and 2015 (everyone else.) 

Declared GOP Candidates, in order of their official announcement:

1. Ted Cruz (March 23) 
2. Rand Paul (April 7)
3. Marco Rubio (April 14)
4. Dr. Ben Carson (May 3) 
5. Carly Fiorina (May 4) 
6. Mike Huckabee (May 5) 
7. Rick Santorum (May 27)
8. George Pataki (May 28)
9. Lindsey Graham (June 1) 
10. Rick Perry (June 4) 
11. Jeb Bush (June 15)
12. Donald Trump (June 16) 
13. Bobby Jindal (June 24) 
14. Chris Christie (June 30)
15. Scott Walker (July 13) 
16. John Kasich (July 21) 
17. Jim Gilmore (July 30) 

Officially Not Running
Rob Portman (Dec 2)
Paul Ryan (Jan 12)
Mitt Romney (Jan 30)
Rick Snyder (May 7)
John Bolton (May 14) 

Mike Pence (May 20) 

Bob Ehrlich (August 4)

This time around we'll have a Republican incumbent, probably named Trump but possibly, just possibly, named Pence. It's unlikely but also possible, just possible, that a Republican would run against the incumbent in the primaries. Who might "primary" the president? The one name I've heard so far is Ohio governor John Kasich. If he, or any other Republican, declares himself (or herself) to be a candidate, I'll start a Republican list, but this time around the real suspense is on the Democratic side. 

So who is running? These are the names I've seen mentioned, somewhere, anywhere, as potential Democratic candidates, listed in alphabetical order:

1. Joe Biden (Former VP)
2. Michael Bloomberg (Former mayor of New York City)
3. Peter Buttigieg (Mayor of South Bend, Indiana) added Sept. 8
4. Cory Booker (New Jersey senator)
5. Sherrod Brown (Ohio senator)
6. Jerry Brown (Governor of California)
7. Steve Bullock (Governor of Montana)
8. Julian Castro (Former secretary of Housing and Urban Development) 
9. Mark Cuban (Businessman, owner of the Dallas Mavericks)
10. Bill de Blasio (Mayor of New York City)
11. Tulsi Gabbard (Congresswoman from Hawaii) added Sept. 8
12. Eric Garcetti (Mayor of Los Angeles) 
13. Kirsten Gillibrand (New York senator)
14. Luis Gutierrez (Congressman from Illinois)
15. Kamala Harris (California senator)
16. John Hickenlooper (Governor of Colorado) 
17. Eric Holder (Former Attorney General)
18. Robert Iger (Businessman, Chairman/CEO of Disney)
19. Jay Inslee (Governor of Washington)
20. Tim Kaine (Virginia senator, 2016 VP nominee)
21. Jason Kander (Former Secretary of State of Missouri)
22. Amy Klobuchar (Minnesota senator)
23. Mitch Landrieu (Mayor of New Orleans)
24. Terry McAuliffe (Former governor of Virginia)
25. Jeff Merkley (Oregon senator)
26. Seth Moulton (Congressman from Massachusetts) 
27. Chris Murphy (Connecticut senator)
28. Martin O'Malley (Former governor of Maryland, ran in 2016 primaries)
29. Deval Patrick (Former governor of Massachusetts)
30. Tim Ryan (Congressman from Ohio) added Sept. 8
31. Bernie Sanders (Vermont senator, registered Independent, ran in 2016 primaries)
32. Howard Schultz (Businessman, former CEO of Starbucks)
33. Tom Steyer (Businessman) added Sept. 8
34. Elizabeth Warren (Massachusetts senator)
35. Mark Zuckerberg (Businessman, founder of Facebook)

It turns out there is one Democratic politician who has already declared himself a candidate, way back in July, 2017. His name is John Delaney and he's a Congressman from Maryland. So far he's pretty obscure, but since he's official, he gets to be the first one on my Declared Candidates list.  

Declared Democratic Candidates, in order of their announcement 

John Delaney (July 28, 2017)
Andrew Yang (November 6, 2017) added Sept. 8

Oprah Winfrey and Andrew Cuomo (Governor of New York) have also been mentioned as possible candidates but they've both said they're not running. That means they get to be the first two names on the "I'm Not Running" list. 

I'm Not Running

Oprah Winfrey 

Andrew Cuomo 
Sheryl Sandberg added Sept. 8

As the potential candidates declare themselves to be officially in or officially out of the 2020 race, or if Oprah and/or Andrew change their minds and go for it, I'll update my lists.  

Days until election day: 788

Saturday afternoon update: I just saw a June 18, 2018 article at the Washington Post containing a few more names. I've added Peter Buttigieg, Tim Ryan, Tulsi Gabbard and Tom Steyer to the Potential Candidates list, businessman Andrew Yang, who I've never heard of before, to the Declared Candidates list, and Sheryl Sandberg to the I'm Not Running list. 

Days until the mid-term election: 59
Days until the presidential election: 787