Wednesday, January 28, 2015

29 Years Ago

Front Page Image

American Sniper

Issue dated February 9, 2015
American Sniper Hero Chris Kyle's Widow, Taya: 'I Will Love Him Until the Day I Die'

I'm going to take a break from Guessing Game posts for a while, but I'll continue to post the People cover each week. To me it's an interesting glimpse into what's considered "hot" each week, at least within the demographic of people who buy People.

I haven't been paying too much attention to the American Sniper controversy so I probably wouldn't have guessed this one even if I had tried. I don't care much about Patrick Dempsey's divorce and I really could have done without a topline tease about Mrs. West's efforts to get pregnant, ick.

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Authentic?

Can you "re-brand" yourself as authentic? Isn't that a contradiction in terms? Similar to shaking an Etch-A-Sketch? A great tweet from Matt Viser, a political reporter at The Boston Globe:


And from two weeks ago:

 

Snowpocalypse Not?

Better safe than sorry
I'd rather over-prepare than under-prepare
It was just a forecast...

All true. On the other hand, as weather website 40 North, 70 West points out, hyping a storm is good for business:  

Weather Forecasting is Big Business
The need for extremely localized weather forecasts is a growing demand. Precision weather forecasting is crucial to businesses in weather-sensitive industries such as transportation, agriculture and energy. Talented and accurate meteorologists and private meteorological firms generate sustainable revenue and in some cases big profits by providing companies in weather-sensitive industries with consulting services. However, the vast majority of meteorologists (and non meteorologists to some extent) depend on online traffic in order to generate revenue through their websites or video channels (YouTube) and that’s when things get interesting.


Fair Weather is Bad for Business
What’s your favorite sports team/player? How often do you go crazy over them during the off season? Think of snowstorms as that team/player and fair weather as the off season. 40North 70West (this website) see mind-blowing spikes in traffic (usually between 800% & 1000% increase) when there’s the potential for a significant Winter Storm. Owners or webmasters of weather based websites will tell you this is no exaggeration. This increase in traffic always translates to an increase in ad revenue for this site and I can safely bet that the results are the same for others. It’s no wonder why some weather channels and blogs start selling the possibility of monster storms 5, 7, and in some cases 10+ days in advance. Some are willing to sacrifice their integrity for revenue generated by the hype centered around a low pressure system ridding up the Eastern Seaboard in a cameo appearance.

Read more here

Things I Don't Care About

The carpet at Portland International Airport (PDX.)



Read more here.

Monday, January 26, 2015

What Was She Thinking?

There's more fallout this morning from Sarah Palin's bizarre speech at the Iowa Freedom Summit on Saturday. On Morning Joe, Joe Scarborough compared this speech to her triumphant one at the Republican National Convention in 2008, saying "It's a tragedy. We will let history decide how she got from that point to this point."

Nicole Wallace, who was one of Palin's key aides during the 2008 campaign, said "This is who she is. This, to me, is evidence that she has finally shed every one of those annoying handlers."

As noted in previous posts, she's really not running for anything and she's absolutely not interested in governing. As long as she claims to be "seriously thinking" about running, however, as long as she appears to be a serious part of the political process, she can continue to solicit contributions from her remaining supporters, and unbelievably, some of them continue to send her money. Presumably that was the goal with this speech and that brings me to the question in the title of this post.

What was Sarah Palin thinking? Why on earth would she stand in front of the national press and C-SPAN's cameras and deliver this speech? Is she really so removed from reality and so convinced of her own adorableness that she thought delivering this speech was going to enhance her brand? (Remember, this wasn't extemporaneous. The speech was written in advance.)

I've always thought Sarah Palin was a blithering idiot, but I also really, really don't like her and I'm aware that I was possibly being overly critical of someone whose ideology I don't share. Based on her performance on Saturday, however, maybe I wasn't so far off.

One more thing, and not for the first time. What does John McCain think now?

Sunday, January 25, 2015

Bizarro

Monday morning update:  Chris Cillizza at The Fix has some good stuff about why Sarah really, really isn't running for president: 


There is NO indication that Palin is "seriously" doing anything that would indicate any real interest in the race aside, of course, from doing that easiest thing of all: Just saying it. This has been Palin's M.O. since she was the Republican vice presidential nominee in 2008. She hints at the possibility that she might run, a hint that sends all of those who love and hate her -- there are tons of both -- into a tizzy.  But, there's never any "there" there.  And, it's worth calling it out.

Running for president, particularly in a field as deep and talented as the 2016 field looks to be, is very hard work. It's a labor-intensive effort to reach out to the thousands of activists in early primary states, court major donors -- often in a series of one on one conversations -- and develop a deep policy knowledge that allows you to speak from expertise (or at least significant knowledge) on matters both domestic and international.

In short: Running for president is not something done on a lark. It can't be. There's too much legwork involved. (I always say that running for president is like an iceberg. The part regular people see is the tiny bit above the surface; the massive amount of work to get to that point is the bulk of its mass below the waterline.)

The reality is that Palin, based on any number of conversations I have had with political people -- both those friendly to her and those not -- over the past few years has not done any of the laying of the groundwork necessary to "seriously" consider running for president. 

Yes, by dint of her name recognition and the vaunted place she occupies for some part of the conservative movement, if she announced her candidacy tomorrow there would be a constituency for her. But, her ability to build and grow that constituency in a way that would allow her to, you know, actually have a chance at winning would be entirely dependent on her having built a political apparatus that she has never shown an interest in doing.

Days until Election Day: 651

Original post: 
Incoherent. Gibberish. Coarse. Petty. Just some of the words observers are using to describe Sarah Palin's speech at yesterday's GOP beauty pageant in Iowa. Here's Roger Simon at politco.com:


Sarah Palin, who has been teasing the press with hints she might actually run for president, appeared to end much hope of that Saturday by delivering a 33-minute speech of such incoherence that even veteran Palin-watchers were puzzled.
Some sample lines from Palin:
“Screw the left and Hollywood!”
“Coronation, rinse, repeat.”
Obama “is so over it. America, he’s just not that into you.”
“The man can only ride you when your back is bent.”
I would provide some context, but there wasn’t any. It is possible she was improperly inflated.

Republicans might have been embarrassed by Sarah, or for Sarah, but Democrats were delighted, expressing their joy with two words: Thank You. 

Friday, January 23, 2015

A New List

Back on November 24, Jonathan Bernstein said the next Republican nominee for president would probably come from a list of twelve potential candidates. Now he's back with an updated list of 11 potentials. With Paul Ryan and Rob Portman having officially dropped out and Mittens having dropped in, the list now looks like this: (Note this is not in order of probability.) 

Jeb Bush
Mitt Romney
Chris Christie
Rick Perry
John Kasich
Mike Pence
Marco Rubio
Bobby Jindal
Scott Walker
Mike Huckabee
Rick Santorum

Within the group he breaks it down like this:

Who are the strongest contenders? If I had to guess right now, I’d say Bush, Rubio and Walker are sort of a top-tier; Kasich and Pence are both realistic longshots who might belong in the top group but who seem to be moving very slowly (perhaps because they aren’t getting as much encouragement as they would like?) The rest all seem somewhat less likely. But that’s a mix of speculation and my (subjective) interpretation of early (and perhaps very incomplete) reporting; there’s very little hard evidence yet about who is running well and who isn’t. It's called the  “invisible primary” for a reason: A lot of what’s happened isn’t being publicized.

He continues to believe that Ted Cruz and Rand Paul are not viable candidates, which is slightly out-of-step with other pundits. This is all just informed tea-leaf reading right now, as no one on the Republican side has formally declared himself to be a candidate but those announcements should be coming soon. 

Read the entire post here

Days until Election Day: 654

Thursday, January 22, 2015

Mittens And Jeb, Meeting In Salt Lake City

"It's my turn," says Jeb.
"No, it's my turn," says Mittens.
"You had your turn," says Jeb.  

Wouldn't you like to be a fly on the wall for this, from Talking Points Memo

The meeting, which was first reported by The New York Times late Wednesday, had been scheduled for months. It was proposed by Bush and had originally been meant for Bush to "show respect" for Romney, according to the Times.

More recently both Bush and Romney have taken steps signaling plans for running for president in 2016. The meeting was planned before Romney told a group of donors he was considering running for president a third time.

Days until Election Day: 655

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Deflate-Gate?

It appears that the New England Patriots used some under-inflated footballs during their blow-out of the Colts on Sunday. Will this be a scandal? Will it affect the Super Bowl? Should the Colts be packing their bags for Arizona? Stay tuned because the feeding frenzy is starting. 

Jennifer Lopez

Issue dated February 2, 2015
Jennifer Lopez tells PEOPLE 'I Still Believe in the Fairy Tale'

That was predictable. Lopez has been all over the place promoting her new movie, so my bad. I tanked on the cover stories this week. Still, word on the street is that photos of Chris and DesirĂ©e's wedding will be in US Weekly this week, although possibly not as a cover story. 

The Guessing Game

What will be on the cover of People magazine this week? Guesses:

Oscar Nominations: The #OscarsSoWhite controversy

Jennifer Aniston and/or Angelina Jolie: Oscar snubs
Bachelorettes: Andi and Josh broke up, DesirĂ©e and Chris got married, is Britt campaigning to be the next Bachelorette? 
Lindsey Vonn: Breaks a record with 62 World Cup victories
Betty White: 93rd birthday
Dakota Johnson: I figure we'll get a 50 Shades of Grey cover before too long 
Mitt Romney: He's gotten an awful lot of press over the last couple of weeks 
Joni Ernst: A brand-new Republican senator gives the response to the State of the Union 
Bruce Jenner: The magazine cover controversy. In Touch magazine photoshopped Bruce's face onto a picture of actress Stephanie Beacham for a cover story titled "My Life As A Woman"

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Blogging The Bach: Starring Jimmy Kimmel

Monday afternoon update: If you couldn't tell by what I wrote this morning about the so-called wedding crash, it really bugs me when this show stages something strange or out of the ordinary, then pretends it "just happened." Now, thanks to the blogosphere, we know how Chris and Whitney really ended up at that wedding. First, here's what producer Robert Mills tweeted out last night:

THIS WAS NOT STAGED

When I saw the all-caps tweet live during the show, I assumed he was winking at us and saying, "Yes, of course, you know that something like this was totally staged."

But then, here's what Chris Harrison said in his blog:

We did an okay job of showing this, but you should know this was not planned and it was not our idea at all. None of this was set up by our producers and we didn't know those people at the wedding. Whitney is really the one who came up with the idea. The more she and Chris joked about it the more they wanted to do it. Finally as you saw one of our producers said, "Hey if y'all want to do this, then go do it."

We were pretty close to the house so we drove them back to change and dress up so they could crash the reception, which was in the same place as you saw the wedding. Whitney grabbed some prop out of Chris' house and wrapped it as a wedding gift to the couple. The truly entertaining thing was the closer they got to actually crashing the wedding, the more nervous Chris and Whitney got. It was one of those things that sounded funny and cool, but when you're actually about to truly crash a wedding, you're nervous as hell.

I have to give massive props to our crew that night. With just a few cameras and the cover of darkness they hid from a distance and somehow covered the wedding as best they could without being seen. As Chris mentioned, a producer or two also snuck in and shot some video on their phones as if they were family or friends just capturing the moments. It was genius on-the-fly television producing that was so well done it looked planned, but I promise you it wasn't.

And here's what Bachelor Chris said in his blog: 

Jimmy sent us to a winery, and I had no clue what else he had planned for us, but when Whitney and I saw that wedding taking place on the property, and she suggested we crash it, I thought, "Sorry Jimmy, but we're scrapping your date!"

I loved Whitney's spontaneity and the fact that she suggested we do it; it really showed me that she lives in the moment. What you didn't see was us talking to the show's producers. Nothing like this had ever been done before, and everybody was really hesitant to actually do it. They had to scramble to figure out logistics, how they were going to capture everything on camera and make it work. Thankfully they figured out a way to make it happen, and off we went to the mansion to change into our crashing clothes.

Whitney looked beautiful in her dress, and in the limo we were both actually so nervous about crashing. We tried to come up with a backstory for how we knew the bride and groom, but I'm a terrible liar and I knew I wouldn't be able to keep a straight face. We were also worried that people would recognize me, so we came up with a story about being engaged. Of course, once we were in the wedding, we ended up talking to the maid of honor. I mean, come on! Couldn't we have sat next to a fourth cousin once removed?

I actually could not keep the story straight, and if it wasn't for Whitney, we would have been found out and tossed out. She did a great job mingling and keeping our story in line. She's so friendly, and everyone got along with her, and we totally tore it up on the dance floor and somehow never got made! That was a night I'll never forget. As for Nick and Shannon, the couple whose wedding we crashed, thank you for allowing us to join you on your special day, even if we weren't invited! I wish you nothing but a lifetime of happiness, and if I do end up getting married at the end of all this, you're invited! 

Finally, here's what the bride (shannonfrench99) said, on her Instagram account: [T]he producers contacted our venue and asked about couples getting married in the Fall. There were several to chose from but apparently we fit the exact profile they were looking for. They liked our age, story and theme for our wedding.  

Just a little real reality about how this show is really produced.

Original post:


What do you call Benedict Cumberbatch on a date with 30 women? The Cumberbachelor.

That was the "final joke" on the Jimmy Kimmel show last night, after the host's corporate cross-pollinated synergistic turn on the The Bachelor earlier in the evening. Clearly he and the Chrises were having a great time together and after 18 seasons, it's fun to see something other than the same old, same old.

Having said that, however, yikes, the actual show last night was weird. The Bachelor is always weird, of course and if you're going to watch you have to accept it on its own terms. It's really, really not about finding true love, although, for what it's worth, another Bach couple, Des and Chris, did in fact get married for real on Sunday. (On the other hand, Andi and Josh broke up, less than six months after their engagement was shown on TV, which how it usually goes with these relationships.)

Anyway, even within the strange world of The Bachelor the tone just seemed off last night. In particular, a crazy alcohol-fueled reality show is not the healthiest place for a woman whose husband killed himself. Juelia told Chris about her husband's suicide, which was way, way too real for this show. He tried to be sympathetic and supportive, even as he looked extremely uncomfortable listening to her story and the whole thing was just off. It didn't fit. Other thoughts:

Chris is a kisser. For all the emphasis on Chris's humble midwest farmer persona, and the deliberate contrast with sleezy Juan Pab, Chris kisses early and often. In informal Bachelor-lore, Bob Guiney is considered to be the "kiss one, kiss them all" title holder but our farmer is giving him a run for his money. Note that on the group date, the woman who wouldn't let him kiss her ended up getting the group date rose. (Go Becca!) And really, ABC, enough with the smacking sounds. Just stop.



We now know that there are two virgins, two widows and a couple of moms in the group. There's also a Kardashian wanna-be, Ashley I, in the picture above. She does kinda look like Mrs. West, and she wears more mascara than a medium size soap opera cast, but until last night the K-link was unspoken. The she made it official with this gem: When Jimmy K told the group that a pool party would take place instead of the usual cocktail party, Ashley I lamented that she had been "so excited to do my Kardashian look tonight." The K-ness only goes so far, however: Ashley I is one of the virgins.

Can we have Jimmy Kimmel every week? Clearly he, Chris Harrison and the producers were having tons of fun sending up the show and all of its weird conventions - the hot tub, the roses, the word "amazing." I don't for a minute, however, believe that Bach Chris didn't know that Jimmy was going to "sneak" into his bedroom and wake him up.

Even more than that, I don't believe the wedding crash was spontaneous and unplanned. ABC producer Robert Mills tweeted out that "THIS WAS NOT STAGED" and in his blog, Chris Harrison states that "this was not planned and and it was not our idea at all." He even says that he doesn't know Nick and Shannon (the bride and groom,) he hopes to meet them soon and he's sorry they ate so much of their wedding cake.

Nope. Not buying it. Not even a little bit. From the wedding gift, which was supposedly wrapped by Whitney at the bachelor pad with wedding wrapping paper that just happened to be available, to the film of the event, which was supposedly shot by producers' cell phones, to the fact that everyone whose face was shown on the show would have had to sign a legal release and possibly a non-disclosure agreement, this was way, way too complex to have truly been a spur-of-the-moment surprise.

Plus, if we're supposed to believe that this was all Whitney's idea, totally on the spur of the moment, what was the date originally planned to be? Whitney's date card was conveniently generic (Today is going to be fun, no whining, signed Jimmy K) and if there really was something else that was supposed to have happened, some pretty elaborate arrangements would have had to have been made in advance and then cancelled. (I also think Chris H would have mentioned it in his blog, for example, We had been excited to take Chris and Whitney to a romantic dinner on a gondola, but crashing the wedding sounded like so much fun we abandoned the original plan...)  As I said earlier, you have to take the show on its own terms and it's not pretending to be Masterpiece Theatre, but still. Some things just don't add up.

That's all for now, Rosebuds. There's more drama to come next week, of course. Ashley I eats an ear of corn, someone takes off their bikini bottom and jumps into a lake, and one of the women announces that this is a date for bimbos. And are Chris and Britt breaking up? Tune in next week, same Bach time, same Bach channel, for more fun and games with Prince Farming.

Saturday, January 17, 2015

Big Block Of Cheese Day. I Love It!!

Peggy and Jennifer Don't Like Mittens Anymore

I promise, this blog isn't going to be all Mittens all the time. It's just been fascinating (and entertaining) on so many levels to watch the political world in a tizzy trying to figure out what's really going on with Mitt Romney. Will he really run? Who thinks he should? Who thinks he shouldn't? Could he possibly win? (Answer to that one? Almost certainly not.)

One of the most entertaining parts of the whole thing is pondering the opinions of two women who supported him in 2012 and now don't seem to like him very much. Jennifer Rubin, the conservative blogger at the Washington Post, was so pro-Mitt in 2012 that she could have been mistaken for a paid publicist. Now she's horrified:

Romney's cringe-worthy start

How is this Mitt Romney any different from the last one? 

The Romney reality: His time has passed

Peggy Noonan was both warm and cool towards Romney in 2012; in September she called his campaign "incompetent," then clarified that she really meant "rolling calamity." (Read it here.)

By November 5, however, the day before the election, Peggy had decided that Mitt was going to win, and deserved to. She based her belief on good vibrations and lawn signs; you can read the entire piece here. Best parts:

Romney’s crowds are building—28,000 in Morrisville, Pa., last night; 30,000 in West Chester, Ohio, Friday It isn’t only a triumph of advance planning: People came, they got through security and waited for hours in the cold. His rallies look like rallies now, not enactments. In some new way he’s caught his stride. He looks happy and grateful. His closing speech has been positive, future-looking, sweetly patriotic. His closing ads are sharp—the one about what’s going on at the rallies is moving.

All the vibrations are right.

And there’s the thing about the yard signs. In Florida a few weeks ago I saw Romney signs, not Obama ones. From Ohio I hear the same. From tony Northwest Washington, D.C., I hear the same.

Is it possible this whole thing is playing out before our eyes and we’re not really noticing because we’re too busy looking at data on paper instead of what’s in front of us? Maybe that’s the real distortion of the polls this year: They left us discounting the world around us. (Epistemic closure alert: the idea that the absence of Obama lawn signs in "tony Northwest Washington, D.C." means that there aren't any Obama lawn signs anywhere and by extension that the Republican is going to win, is a good indication that Peggy needs to get out more.)  

And there is Obama, out there seeming tired and wan, showing up through sheer self discipline. A few weeks ago I saw the president and the governor at the Al Smith dinner, and both were beautiful specimens in their white ties and tails, and both worked the dais. But sitting there listening to the jokes and speeches, the archbishop of New York sitting between them, Obama looked like a young challenger—flinty, not so comfortable. He was distracted, and his smiles seemed forced. He looked like a man who’d just seen some bad internal polling. Romney? Expansive, hilarious, self-spoofing, with a few jokes of finely calibrated meanness that were just perfect for the crowd. He looked like a president. He looked like someone who’d just seen good internals.

Maybe that’s what the coming Romney moment is about: independents, conservatives, Republicans, even some Democrats, thinking: We can turn it around, we can work together, we can right this thing, and he can help.

Now, however, Peggy has fallen out of love again, writing a "scorching" article in the Wall Street Journal titled "Don't Do It, Mr. Romney." It's behind their paywall so I haven't read the whole thing but yesterday she helpfully sent out a few tweets linking to the story: 
  • Mitt is good at life, good at business and good at faith. He is politically clunky, always was and always will be.
  • The real Romney-Reagan difference is this: There was something known as Reaganism. It was a real movement.
  • Mitt is a smart, nice man who thinks himself clever and politically insightful. He is not and will not become so. 
  • Romneyism is just “Mitt should be president.” That is not enough.
  • There is no such thing as Romneyism and there never will be. Mr. Romney has never encompassed a philosophical world.
  • Mitt would have been a better president than Obama. That is not nearly enough.
Will Mitt run? I'm going out on a limb to say that in the end, I'm guessing he won't. Stay tuned. 

Thursday, January 15, 2015

Belching Sheep And Farting Cows

When I started my blog I had no idea I would actually be writing about the farts and belches of cows and sheep. It sounds like a joke but it really isn't. The processes in question release methane which is a big contributor to climate change and global warming.

Eric Holthaus has a new story at Slate, which you can read here.

Previous blog posts include

Sheep Belches Threaten The World
It's Not Just The Sheep
WTF Headlines And Farting Cows

Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Brittany Maynard

Issue dated January 26, 2015
Brittany Maynard's Final Hours: Husband Dan Diaz Says She 'Knew It Was Time'| Suicide and Attempts, Cancer, Health, Real People Stories, Brittany Maynard

I"m not sure what to say about this cover. I don't mean to be disrespectful, but People does focus on dead people, celebrities and otherwise. Covers in 2014 included 2 of Robin Williams, Joan Rivers, a previous Maynard cover, Sharon Tate, Reeva Steenkamp and Philip Seymour Hoffman. George and Amal are included in the Golden Globes sidebar story.

Governor Romney, You're No Ronald Reagan

I said in an earlier post that the comparison to Ronald Reagan's three runs for president was not on point; today in a post titled "Only Romney Thinks He's Reagan," political scientist Jonathan Bernstein lays out why not.

Between Reagan's first (1968) and second (1976) presidential runs, he went from being an inexperienced governor who had given an impressive speech for Barry Goldwater in 1964 to being a successful two-term governor who continued to consolidate his position as leader of the conservative movement. Then, in the run-up to his third try in 1980, Reagan remained the clear conservative leader. A real, influential leader: His attack on the Panama Canal treaties, for example, made opposition to them the standard conservative position.
In other words, Reagan didn’t just get better at running for president. He was a much more impressive politician with far more accomplishments by 1980 than he had been in 1968.
Romney? Not so much.
He first ran for president as a successful one-term governor, although he had to repudiate much of what he had done when he moved to the national stage. He ran for president a second time as a successful one-term governor. He is now running for president yet again as … a successful one-term governor.
As far as I can see, he has done exactly zero to enhance his credentials apart from having now developed extensive experience in running for president. If he has ever been an influential leader among Republicans on any policy position, I’ve clean forgotten about it.
Read the whole post here.
Days until the election:  663

Tuesday, January 13, 2015

Blogging The Bach: Drunk Girls Gone

One more thing: No guessing game post this week. Other than a Golden Globes recap, or possibly a feature about Amal Clooney, I have no idea what might be on the People cover this week.

Original post:
Welcome rosebuds, it's week 2. Truthfully I was distracted during the show last night, switching back and forth between The Bachelor and the college football championship game, so the Bach didn't have my full attention. The DVR was running, however, and I finally had a chance to sit down this evening and watch the whole show. It's actually tempting to do it that way every time because it allows me to fast-forward through all the commercials. Thoughts:

Whitney's voice really is annoying. She apparently has a sense of humor about it, sending out a tweet that said The best thing about tweeting is that you can't hear my voice.

Chris is doing a lot of kissing with many women, and for some reason ABC feels the need to add smacking sounds whenever lips meet. Please stop.

Remember hunky Zak Waddell from Desirée's season? Carly's his sister.

As Chris was doing all that kissing I found myself wondering what it's like to have to kiss someone you don't want to kiss. He doesn't absolutely have to, of course, but so far it appears that anyone that wants a kiss gets a kiss. It's all part of the job of being The Bachelor but I'll bet at some point it gets tiresome.

I know this really isn't about finding Chris a husband and the women are cast mostly for their entertainment value, but even so, I was struck by the age and lifestyle gap between Chris and Mackenzie. He's 33, she's 21 and a single mother. During their one-on-one time she almost seemed like his daughter. I found myself wondering why she was cast. Actually it's hard to imagine any of the women with kids will go very far on this show.

Last week it was drunk Tara, this week we had drunk Jordan; neither got roses. As I mentioned last week, I do wonder what goes through their heads when the show actually airs. Are they mentally prepared for how unflattering and unattractive their time onscreen is going to be? Have they warned their families? Kimberly, the girl who got a second chance after the first rose ceremony also went home this week.

For the last several seasons, the Bach or Bach'ette has "written" a blog at people.com. The posts were usually pretty bland and generic and I've always assumed they were ghostwritten by some staffer from the show. Whoever's writing for Chris this time around is pretty good, or maybe he is actually writing it himself, either way I enjoyed reading it more than I expected to.

Finally, next week we get Jimmy Kimmel. Who knows what that will lead to. Stay tuned for week 3.

A Bet's A Bet

View image on Twitter

We didn't get to see Ohio's senators "throwing the O," but Oregon's senators paid up their end of the deal. I'm not sure this really spells Ohio, but who cares. A bet's a bet.

Other than the actual outcome, which broke the heart of Ducks fans everywhere, the first college football championship playoff was a big success, with ESPN getting the biggest cable ratings ever.

One last picture of the Duck then it's on to next year!

The Oregon Duck mascot rides before the Oct. 18 Washington game.

Don't Do It, Mittens!

In a post titled "Why Losing Nominees Should Just Go Away," Daniel Larison at The American Conservative explains why Mitt 2016 is a really bad idea. You can read the entire article here; money quotes here:

Politico recently reported on the thinking behind the ill-fated push for a third Romney campaign. Reading the report, I was struck by how clueless many people in the Romney camp still are about what went wrong with the campaign last time. For instance, one “senior adviser” maintained that foreign policy was one of Romney’s strengths in 2012, and said that there would be an even greater emphasis on it in a future campaign. I suppose one would expect a Romney adviser to think that his boss’ ideas were right, but the delusion that one of Romney’s most glaring weaknesses was a strength is harder to explain. 

[R]etread candidates are tiresome and start to appear desperate, especially by the third time around. By the time the first votes are cast in 2016, Romney will have been running for president almost without interruption for more than ten years, and he has done so without success. I suppose one could credit him with a strange sort of perseverance, but for most people that’s just evidence of an increasingly bizarre obsession. Like most other former nominees, Romney has nothing to offer his party, and his party can’t be so self-destructive and unimaginative as to want him back.

Follow The Money



More: "I don't know, man, it's a free country. I thought there was no education in the second kick of a mule... " Thus sayeth John McCain when asked about Mitt Romney's apparent third try for the presidency.

And here are Chris Cillizza's latest thoughts:

I don't doubt Romney's sincerity. But I do think he and those close to him are fooling themselves that he can simply proclaim that he is running a new and different campaign -- one based on foreign policy and poverty, according to Politico -- and that will be that.
It's literally impossible for me to imagine such a scenario.  The reason Romney is in the position he is -- nationally known, a massive fundraising network -- is because of his 2008 and 2012 campaigns. Those are the pluses of having run twice before. But, there are also significant minuses in having done so. Does Romney think either his Republican opponents or, potentially Hillary Clinton in a general election, are going to just let the whole "47 percent" thing drop? Or that the car elevator, "severely conservative" and the picture of him with money coming out of his suit jacket are going to disappear?
Um, they won't. The second Romney declares -- and, even now as he moves toward a candidacy -- all of the things people didn't like about him will start to creep back to the front of their minds. The image of him as an out-of-touch plutocrat, which the Obama team so effectively painted, will linger no matter what Romney says or does as a candidate. And, unlike in 2012 when he was seen as the de facto frontrunner due to his close-but-no-cigar bid in 2008, the logic (or lack thereof) for why he would choose to run again in 2016 would make him a puzzle in the eyes of many Republican primary voters. People don't usually vote for puzzles.
Original post:
Here at Writing The World, I sometimes get a wee bit obsessed. Sarah Palin, the Oregon Ducks, the British royal family, at one time or another they've all been the subject of some obsessive blogging. Now it's Mitt Romney and his quest to lead the free world. There's lots being written about this, of course and when something strikes me as especially insightful, or just entertainingly snarky, I'll copy or link to it here. To start, Matt Yglesias at Vox has good stuff about what's really driving Mitt to try again, and it comes down to one word: money. Not Mitt's money, but the money his staffers want to make working for him again.

It's increasingly clear that Mitt Romney is running for president again, an idea which to many people makes very little sense. The Washington Post quotes one Romney advisor as saying that Mitt "believes he has something to offer the country and the only way he can do that is by running for president again." At this point, mind you, Romney has been mounting presidential campaigns for longer than he was governor of Massachusetts. And unlike in 2012, there are any number of seasoned governors of medium-sized states with orthodox conservative records who can run.


To really understand why it's happening, you need to remember this one sentence from an article Sean Sullivan wrote in December 2013: "Romney's seven highest-paid campaign staffers all made more in 2012 than anyone on Obama's campaign."
That is nice work if you can get it. Another relevant point is from Jim Rutenberg's July 2012 article about the network of wealthy Mormon families who've supported Romney in his every political campaign.
Add access to a unique donor base to a candidate whose known for generously compensating his senior campaign staff, and you have not quite a rationale for a national campaign but a reason for a group of seasoned political operatives to come up with one. 


To be sure, there's always money to be made in lobbying or consulting. But those careers need constant refresh of one's contacts, and a spin on a decent and well-financed Romney campaign is a good chance to give those practices a boost.

This sets the stage for a perfect storm of self-deception. Romney is surrounded by associates who have every incentive to tell him not just that Barack Obama is a bad president, and that liberal ideas are inferior to conservative ones, but that he in particular has unique attributes that call him to the stage of national leadership. That's the kind of thing anyone would be prone to want to believe. And these are, mind you, successful, highly paid political consultants who are very, very good at making their political theories sound plausible to aspiring leaders.

And note that Romney — whatever his virtues as a businessman or a politician — is known to be prone to the human frailty of falling for self-flattering beliefs. According to manymanymany reports, Romney genuinely woke up on Election Day 2012 believing he would win the election even though polls told him otherwise.

There's not much at stake for America or the world in the question of a Romney 2016 bid. There is zero reason to believe he'd govern any differently from any of the other Republican contenders. But in dollars and cents terms for Romney's inner circle of advisors the stakes couldn't be higher. No wonder they're so eager to tell the story of Mitt as a unique man of destiny.

Monday, January 12, 2015

Duck Feathers

Wazzusept20

Mashable has a fun feature in which they rank all fifteen uniforms the Ducks wore this season, including the relatively subdued white and gray outfit planned for tonight. The black and yellow combo above is my fave.
Read the article here.

And for the record, I think I'm falling in love with the Duck. So much cuter than Brutus.