Debating The Donald?

Not tonight, apparently.

In a fit of pique earlier this week, Donald Trump said that Fox News has been mean to him and he wouldn't stand on stage at their debate tonight. Was he bluffing? Jeb! thought so, offering to bet $10,000 that Donald would show up. (Full disclosure: I'm exaggerating. It was $20. #MemoriesOfMittens.)

Anyway, as of 2.30 Thursday afternoon it's clear that Donald isn't bluffing. He won't debate tonight and he's holding an event of his own, bragging that he'll get better ratings than the boring Trumpless debate over on Fox. Will he? Maybe. CNN and MSNBC haven't said yet that they'll show the whole thing live, but my bet is that they do.

Why is this happening? Chris Cillizza at The Fix says Donald just doesn't want to debate any more:

Trump is sick of debating. Period.

He also knows two things:

1. He is not a great debater but probably had his best performance in a debate in the last get-together of the candidates. (His amazing statement announcing he would not participate in the seventh debate included this line: "There have already been six debates, and according to all online debate polls including Drudge, Slate, Time Magazine, and many others, Mr. Trump has won all of them, in particular the last one.")

2. He has the momentum in Iowa and is way ahead in New Hampshire.

For Trump then another debate this close to the Iowa caucuses has almost no upside. His attacks on Ted Cruz are working. All of the second tier candidates are either attacking each other or Cruz. Thousands of people are coming to every one of his rallies -- including the one he will hold tonight in Iowa while his rivals debate. He is getting wall-to-wall media coverage and will continue to do so.

What Trump wants to do then is run out the clock. Take as few risks as possible between now and Monday. He and his campaign know that if he wins the Iowa caucuses, he will almost certainly cruise in the New Hampshire primary eight days later. Win those first two states and Trump starts to look (even more) like a juggernaut for the Republican nomination.

That's why Trump isn't debating tonight. The rest is just a smokescreen.

Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo takes a deeper look:

So this debate power play is all of a piece. He [Trump] can just take the table, flip it over and walk out of the room. It's all about him.

There is no question that Trump will completely dominate tomorrow night's debate by his absence. After all, he's the one in the lead everywhere. If he's not there, what is there to talk about? The Rubio v Christie stand off? Jeb? Who cares?

It may be two plus hours of people attacking him without him being there to respond - and the moderators themselves out to get him too. But again, it's still all about him. He can make it all about him by not even being there. He doesn't kowtow to Fox News or go on retainer with the network during the off-season. He calls the shots. And there is little question in my mind that in one fashion or another you will have two competing TV shows tomorrow night, Trump's and everybody else's. And Trump's will almost certainly be better.

I cannot imagine that at least one of the other cable nets won't livecast it so it really is two different, simulcast competing shows, maybe even with Trump responding to debate attacks in his own speech. The rival candidates are putting it out that Trump is afraid to face Kelly. But I don't think anyone will actually buy that. He's at least held his own in every debate so far. And his first encounter with Kelly last year was a big success for him. It's just a very transparent, straightforward power play.

Now, having said all this, this is so over-the-top that I'm not certain Trump can pull it off. There's part of me that wonders if he's become so used to getting away with every stunt he's pulled in this campaign that he's finally bitten off more than he can chew and somehow it backfires. My hunch is it doesn't. I'm not sure. But I get the idea. Trump doesn't follow rules. Rules follow Trump.

And this brings me to the other part of this I'm keen to discuss.

This whole drama is becoming a real measure, almost a litmus test for buy-in to the normative political culture, the architecture of our current electoral system. Because what is most striking to me about this game is that there's really not even the pretense that there is any real dispute about debate rules or bias or fairness or anything like that at the core of this. There's not even any there there in Trump's supposed 'feud' with Megyn Kelly. It has all the emotive credibility of a professional wrestling rivalry. It really is more or less openly just him saying I'm going to jack you guys up for the fun of it and make a spectacle of this.

Just to make trouble.

Because I can.

You can read Cillizza here and Marshall here

Days until the Iowa caucuses: 4

Days until Election Day: 284