Tuesday, January 29, 2019

Eric Garcetti Won't Run, Howard Schultz Probably Will - Updated

Saying that he will continue to do the job he was elected to do, Los Angeles mayor Eric Garcetti has announced that he will not be a candidate for president in 2020. As Shane Goldmacher points out, "not in 2020" doesn't mean "not ever":



I've moved Garcetti to the I'm Not Running list. 

And what about Howard Schultz? He hasn't made an official announcement, and as far as I can tell he hasn't set up an exploratory committee, but he's sure acting like a candidate, but with a twist. He's thinking about running as an Independent:


Because he's doing all the things a candidate does at this stage, and getting an enormous amount of media attention, I'm moving him to the I'm Running list.

Finally, Andrew Gillum has signed on as a commentator with CNN, which would presumably mean he won't be a candidate in 2020. (Read about that here.) I'm going to move him to the I'm Not Running list too. 

Potential Democratic Candidates, in alphabetical order:

Reminder: Not every name on this list is "viable" as a future nominee or president, or even seriously interested in running, necessarily. It's just a list of every name I've ever seen mentioned, anywhere, as someone who might run in 2020.
  1. Stacey Abrams (2018 candidate for Georgia governor) added 1/3/19
  2. Joe Biden (Former VP)
  3. Michael Bloomberg (Former mayor of New York City)
  4. Cory Booker (New Jersey senator)
  5. Sherrod Brown (Ohio senator)
  6. Jerry Brown (former Governor of California)
  7. Steve Bullock (Governor of Montana)
  8. Mark Cuban (Businessman, owner of the Dallas Mavericks)
  9. Bill de Blasio (Mayor of New York City)
  10. John Hickenlooper (Governor of Colorado) 
  11. Eric Holder (Former Attorney General)
  12. Jay Inslee (Governor of Washington)
  13. Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson (Actor) added Nov. 10
  14. Tim Kaine (Virginia senator, 2016 VP nominee)
  15. Joe Kennedy (Congressman from Massachusetts) added Nov. 10
  16. John Kerry (former Secretary of State, 2004 Democratic nominee) added Nov. 10 
  17. Amy Klobuchar (Minnesota senator)
  18. Mitch Landrieu (Mayor of New Orleans)
  19. Terry McAuliffe (Former governor of Virginia)
  20. Jeff Merkley (Oregon senator)
  21. Seth Moulton (Congressman from Massachusetts) 
  22. Chris Murphy (Connecticut senator)
  23. Beto O'Rourke (Texas Congressman, ran a close race for a U.S. senate seat from Texas) added Sept. 13
  24. Tim Ryan (Congressman from Ohio) added Sept. 8
  25. Bernie Sanders (Vermont senator, registered Independent, ran in 2016 primaries)
  26. Eric Swalwell (Congressman from California) added Nov. 8
  27. Mark Warner (Virginia senator) added Nov. 10
  28. Marianne Williamson (Author, teacher, spiritual leader) added Dec. 11
  29. Mark Zuckerberg (Businessman, founder of Facebook)
I'm Running: Declared Democratic Candidates, in order of their announcement
  1. John Delaney (7/28/17) 
  2. Andrew Yang (11/6/17) 
  3. Elizabeth Warren (12/31/18)
  4. Tulsi Gabbard (1/11/19)
  5. Julián Castro (1/12/19)
  6. Kirsten Gillibrand (1/16/19)  
  7. Kamala Harris (1/21/19)
  8. Pete Buttigieg (1/23/19)
  9. Howard Schultz (1/29/19) * Running as an Independent 
I'm Not Running
Oprah Winfrey
Andrew Cuomo
Sheryl Sandberg, added Sept. 8
Jason Kander, added Oct. 17
Robert Iger, added Oct. 22
Michael Avenatti, December 4, 2018
Deval Patrick, December 5, 2018
Martin O'Malley, January 3, 2019
Luis Gutierrez, added January 7, 2019
Tom Steyer, January 9, 2019
Bob Casey, January 19, 2019
Eric Garcetti, January 29, 2019
Andrew Gillum, January 29, 2019

I'm Not Running Anymore: Declared candidates who have dropped out

Richard Ojeda (1/25/19)


Days until Election Day: 643


Tuesday morning update. First Read, at NBCNews.com, says the Democratic field may be smaller than previously expected: (Note that their list of seven candidates doesn't include businessman Andrew Yang and potential Independent candidate Howard Schultz, who are both on my I'm Running list.)

Is the ultimate Democratic field going to be smaller than everyone anticipated? More like 12 to 15 candidates instead of the 20 to 30 folks have talked about?

Right now, we have seven candidates who have declared or who have filed paperwork, and it already feels a bit, well, crowded. Part of that is due to Sens. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., Kamala Harris, D-Calif., and Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., announcing early, and staking claims to their lanes.

And part of it is due to the fact that Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Beto O’Rourke have the name ID, potential resources and ability to wait on a decision, thus freezing the rest of the field.

If you’re not in early, and if you’re not Biden, Sanders, O’Rourke or a billionaire like Mike Bloomberg, it becomes harder and harder to differentiate yourself and your candidacy.

To quote Yogi Berra, “It’s getting late early.” (Read the article here.)

Days until Election Day: 642 
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