Sunday, July 29, 2018

Is Joe The Next Bachelor? - Updated

A post shared by Joe Amabile (@joeamabile1) on

Could one of the three gentlemen in the picture above be the next Bachelor? Possibly. Jason (on the left) and Colton (in the middle) came in 3rd and 4th on Becca's season, which has traditionally been the best spot from which to get the gig as the next Bach. In a break from tradition, however, Joe (aka Grocery Joe, on the right,) who was eliminated the first night, is also considered to be in contention, along with a few other people, of course, including Ben Higgins and all the various also-rans and wannabees who are still out there. Keep an eye on Bachelor in Paradise, which starts August 7. Joe and Colton won't be the only ones treating it as an audition for the big job. (Word on the street is that Jason didn't go to Paradise. Hmmm??)

Realistically, does Joe have a shot? As I pondered this very important question, I decided to do a deep dive into Bachelor history. Where, exactly, did each of the 22 previous Bachelors come from and how did they get the starring role? What did I learn? Follow along. First, here's the master list of all previous Bachelors, starting with Alex in 2002 right up through Arie in 2018:
  1. Alex Michel
  2. Aaron Buerge
  3. Andrew Firestone
  4. Bob Guiney
  5. Jesse Palmer
  6. Byron Velvick
  7. Charlie O'Connell
  8. Travis Stork
  9. Lorenzo Borghese
  10. Andrew Baldwin
  11. Brad Womack (the first time around)
  12. Matt Grant
  13. Jason Mesnick
  14. Jake Pavelka
  15. Brad Womack (second try) 
  16. Ben Flajnik
  17. Sean Lowe
  18. Juan Pablo Galavais
  19. Chris Soules
  20. Ben Higgins
  21. Nick Viall
  22. Arie Luyendyk Jr.
Eleven of the first 12 Bachelors were new to the franchise. They were chosen via casting calls or by applying online. (There was no Bachelor in Paradise in those days, and originally, no Bachelorette show either.) Up until their first episode aired they were completely unknown and they mostly disappeared back into their real lives when their seasons were over.

The exception was Bachelor #4, Bob Guiney, who had come in 5th on the first season of the Bachelorette, starring Trista Rehn (now Sutter.) Bob's season ran in the Fall of 2003, and once it was over, it was back to the old way for the next eight Bachelors (Jesse Palmer through Matt Grant.)

Again, there was no Bachelor In Paradise at the time and during the very early years of the show, no social media. My memory is that the influence of Twitter, Facebook and all the various blogs and forums didn't really kick in until Jason Mesnick's season in 2009, approximately, and it took a few more years after that for it to really explode. The "go on The Bachelor/sell stuff on Instagram" dynamic just bubbled up a few years ago. After appearing on Chris Soules' season in 2015, for example, contestants including Kaitlyn Bristowe, Jade Roper, Carly Waddell, Britt Nilsson, Ashley Iaconetti and Jillian Anderson have been particularly savvy about building and monetizing their brands post-Bachelor.

An interesting side note from Farmer Chris's season: Jade and Carly are both married to men they met on BIP and Ashley I is engaged to one. Kaitlyn had her own season of The Bachelorette and is still engaged to the man she selected, Shawn Booth. Why aren't they married yet? I thought Kaitlyn was holding out for a TV wedding, paid for by ABC, but now I've seen speculation that she and Shawn are close to done and will be announcing a break-up soon. Stay tuned.

The "pick the next Bachelor" process changed with Bachelor #13, Jason Mesnick. An appealing single father, Jason came in second on Bachelorette Deanna Pappas' season and was beloved by fans. Realizing the power of an on-going narrative, and a lead that viewers already knew and liked, producers changed course. Rather than selecting an unknown to be the next Bachelor, they went with Jason, and it worked. Since then every Bachelor has appeared on at least one previous Bachelor franchise show.

After Jason, six of the next seven Bachelors first appeared as contestants on the Bachelorette, then were were chosen to be the very next Bachelor. The exception was Brad Womack, who never appeared on The Bachelorette but starred in two seasons of The Bachelor. I've never read anything that clearly explained exactly why Brad was brought back, but Brad 2.0 got a second chance at love, serving as the 15th Bachelor in 2011. So far he's the only person who has been the star of two seasons. (I think the rumor that Ben Higgins might come back for a second season is unlikely, if not completely out of the question.)

That brings us to Bachelor #21, Nick Viall. This is where the pattern changed. Nick was a contestant on Andi's Bachelorette season in 2014, coming in second. He became a Bachelor Nation villain on the Men Tell All show, when he slut-shamed Andi by talking too candidly about what happened in the Fantasy Suite. The next year he appeared on Kaitlyn's season and came in second there too. That was controversial because he wasn't one of the 25 guys who stepped out of the limos on night 1. He talked his way back onto the show about halfway through the season, which made him pretty unpopular in Bachelor Nation. The idea that Nick could be the Bachelor was improbable, to say the least.

So how did he get the job? He went on Bachelor In Paradise in the summer of 2016 and redeemed himself. He came across as charming and appealing, and with no acceptable candidates among the men on JoJo's season, producers dropped a bombshell and announced that Nick was the Bachelor. Wow. They dropped an even bigger bombshell last summer by not selecting anyone from Rachel's season (or from JoJo's, or Kaitlyn's, or Andi's or Desiree's.) Instead, Arie Luyendyk Jr. got the nod. He had finished 2nd on Emily Maynard's season way back in 2012 and hadn't been seen on any franchise show in the last five years. 

Why reach back so far to find the next Bachelor? For a variety of reasons, none of the obvious choices, including Peter, Eric and Dean from Rachel's season and Robby, Chase and Luke from JoJo's season, were deemed to be acceptable. There was a fair amount of sturm und drang last summer, along with a slight aura of desperation as producers scrambled to find a Bachelor, and yes, I wrote about it:

Is Peter the next Bachelor?
Is Peter the next Bachelor?, part 2
Is Peter the next Bachelor?, part 3

That brings us to this year and Grocery Joe. Unlike most contestants who are eliminated the first night, Joe was featured in an introductory video segment during the first episode of Becca's season. Becca didn't like Joe enough to give him a rose, but lots of fans did, making their thoughts known on Twitter and Instagram. Based on his social media popularity, Joe was considered to be a "fan favorite," and that got him a ticket to Bachelor in Paradise. He also attended the taping of the Men Tell All show, which airs tomorrow night. Reality Steve says Joe was one of six men who were called up to the stage to have a conversation with Chris Harrison, which is also unusual for someone who went home on night one.

Can Joe "pull a Nick" and use his time on Bachelor in Paradise to advance to starring in his own show? I think it's possible. We'll get a clue on Men Tell All tomorrow night. Just like the regular episodes, MTA is heavily edited after many hours of filming. Not everything that's filmed actually appears on the final version of the show. If Joe's time in the spotlight with Chris Harrison is shown, and if he's presented in a positive way, I'll take it as a good sign that Joe is officially being considered. (It also sets up his storyline for Paradise.) If we don't see his segment, I'll be less optimistic about his chances.

Saturday afternoon update: Did Joe blow it on the Men Tell All episode? Could be. Here's what Chris Harrison told USA Today:

“Joe goes on to Paradise, and I also think that you saw [on “Men Tell All”] that Joe is a man of very few words. It was a little bit like interviewing Shannon Miller back in the day at the Olympics. If you remember that throwback, it was like getting one-word answers – it was very difficult. And we kind of need our Bachelor to emote and articulate their feelings. So while he’s a good guy, I’m not sure he would be the best Bachelor.” (Read the story here.)

Unfortunately ABC's boss of the Bachelor, Robert Mills, appears to feel the same way. On the most recent Bachelorette Live podcast, he and co-host Julia Cunningham both used the same word to describe Joe's time in the hot seat at Men Tell All: "Dull."

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