Wednesday, April 11, 2018

Changes In The Line Of Succession - Updated

The rumors have been out there but it's still a bombshell. Representative Paul Ryan, former Republican candidate for VP and current Speaker of the House, will retire at the end of his current term. Wow. At age 48, he's young to be leaving and it's been said that he has (or had) presidential aspirations, so why, exactly, is he leaving? He says it's to spend more time with his family. Yes, his current job is probably all-consuming and he probably would like to spend more time with his kids, who are now teen-agers. On the other hand, "spend time with my family" has become a go-to cliche for politicians who resign in advance of, or due to, some kind of scandal. Right now I'm not aware of any specific scandal surrounding Ryan, but stay tuned.

Anyway, a retiring Speaker affects the line of succession to the presidency, and you know I'm interested in that. There's already some churn at the top of the list, so let's take a look. Currently the first five places in line look like this:

1. Vice President: Mike Pence. Unchanged since the inauguration. Pence would get a big promotion if for any reason the current president doesn't complete his term.

2. Speaker of the House: Paul Ryan. Retiring in January, 2019, at the end of his current term. Who will replace him? It depends on the results of the mid-term election in November. If Democrats regain control of the House, Nancy Pelosi would probably, but not certainly, be the next Speaker. If Republicans retain control, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy and House Majority Whip Steve Scalise are considered to be the top choices.

3. President Pro Tem of the Senate: Orrin Hatch. Also retiring in January at the completion of his current term. Who takes his place? Not Mitt Romney. Mittens will almost certainly be elected to fill Hatch's senate seat, but he'll be a very junior senator. The title of President Pro Tem goes to the longest-serving senator of the majority party. If the Republicans keep the majority, Chuck Grassley of Iowa becomes President Pro Tem. If the Democrats take over, it would be Patrick Leahy of Vermont.

4. Secretary of State: Vacant since Rex Tillerson got fired. Deputy Secretary John J. Sullivan is currently filling in as Acting Secretary of State. CIA Director Mike Pompeo has been nominated to succeed Tillerson.

5. Secretary of the Treasury: Steve Mnuchin. No change here, as far as I know.

Update on April 27: Former CIA Director Mike Pompeo has been confirmed and is now the Secretary of State. That makes him #4 in the line of succession to the presidency.

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