Original post:
Last week, Charles Krauthammer published his 3rd GOP Racing Forum, written a few days after the big GOP debates on August 6. To review, this is how things looked to Krauthammer on March 27, when he published Racing Forum #1 (and no one was talking about Donald Trump,) with odds of winning the GOP nomination:
First Tier
Marco Rubio, 3-1
Jeb Bush 7-2
Scott Walker 4-1
Second Tier
Chris Christie 12-1
Ted Cruz 15-1
Mike Huckabee 15-1
Rand Paul 30-1
Longer Shots
Carly Fiorina 50-1
Dr. Ben Carson, odds of winning: none.
What about Bobby Jindal, Rick Perry, Rick Santorum and John Kasich? Krauthammer says they're "still below the radar. If they surface, they'll be featured in the next racing form."
When the second edition was published on June 12, things looked like this, divided into categories but with no odds:
Top Tier
1. Jeb Bush
2. Scott Walker
3. Marco Rubio
Polls Well But Can't Win
4. Rand Paul
5. Dr. Ben Carson
Second Tier, With A Chance To Jump
6. Ted Cruz
7. John Kasich
8. Carly Fiorina
Second Tier, In Need Of A Miracle
9. Rick Perry
10. Chris Christie
11. Mike Huckabee
Now, in GOP Racing Forum #3, Krauthammer has narrowed the field to six candidates, none of which is named Donald Trump:
The first tier is unchanged, shown with odds of winning the GOP nomination
Marco Rubio, 3-1
Jeb Bush, 4-1
Scott Walker, 4-1
Second Tier (and rising, with a high ceiling for each)
Ted Cruz, 9-1
John Kasich, 9-1
Carly Fiorina, 9-1
What about Rand Paul, Ben Carson, Rick Perry, Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee? Toast. Krauthammer doesn't even mention them by name.
Read the entire article, including some thoughts about the Democratic race, here.
By the way, on her show last night, Rachel Maddow said she sees a strong possibility that Rand Paul may be the first Republican to exit the race, possibly as early as this week-end. It's tied to the Kentucky law that prohibits a candidate from running for two jobs on the same ballot and Senator Paul's efforts to get around that law. The Chicago Tribune has a good explanation; read it here.
As I've said before, as soon as candidates start dropping out I'll start a new list, title still undecided. (The "Biggest Loser" list? The "Faced Reality and Caved" list? The "You're Fired!" list? So many possibilities...) Here's how the current lists look today:
Declared GOP Candidates, in order of their official announcement:
Top Tier
1. Jeb Bush
2. Scott Walker
3. Marco Rubio
Polls Well But Can't Win
4. Rand Paul
5. Dr. Ben Carson
Second Tier, With A Chance To Jump
6. Ted Cruz
7. John Kasich
8. Carly Fiorina
Second Tier, In Need Of A Miracle
9. Rick Perry
10. Chris Christie
11. Mike Huckabee
Now, in GOP Racing Forum #3, Krauthammer has narrowed the field to six candidates, none of which is named Donald Trump:
The first tier is unchanged, shown with odds of winning the GOP nomination
Marco Rubio, 3-1
Jeb Bush, 4-1
Scott Walker, 4-1
Second Tier (and rising, with a high ceiling for each)
Ted Cruz, 9-1
John Kasich, 9-1
Carly Fiorina, 9-1
What about Rand Paul, Ben Carson, Rick Perry, Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee? Toast. Krauthammer doesn't even mention them by name.
Read the entire article, including some thoughts about the Democratic race, here.
By the way, on her show last night, Rachel Maddow said she sees a strong possibility that Rand Paul may be the first Republican to exit the race, possibly as early as this week-end. It's tied to the Kentucky law that prohibits a candidate from running for two jobs on the same ballot and Senator Paul's efforts to get around that law. The Chicago Tribune has a good explanation; read it here.
As I've said before, as soon as candidates start dropping out I'll start a new list, title still undecided. (The "Biggest Loser" list? The "Faced Reality and Caved" list? The "You're Fired!" list? So many possibilities...) Here's how the current lists look today:
Declared GOP Candidates, in order of their official announcement:
- Ted Cruz (March 23)
- Rand Paul (April 7)
- Marco Rubio (April 14)
- Dr. Ben Carson (May 3)
- Carly Fiorina (May 4)
- Mike Huckabee (May 5)
- Rick Santorum (May 27)
- George Pataki (May 28)
- Lindsey Graham (June 1)
- Rick Perry (June 4)
- Jeb Bush (June 15)
- Donald Trump (June 16)
- Bobby Jindal (June 24)
- Chris Christie (June 30)
- Scott Walker (July 13)
- John Kasich (July 21)
- Jim Gilmore (July 30)
Officially Not Running
Rob Portman (Dec 2)
Paul Ryan (Jan 12)
Mitt Romney (Jan 30)
Rick Snyder (May 7)
John Bolton (May 14)
Rob Portman (Dec 2)
Paul Ryan (Jan 12)
Mitt Romney (Jan 30)
Rick Snyder (May 7)
John Bolton (May 14)
Mike Pence (May 20)
Bob Ehrlich (August 4)
Days until Election Day: 443
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