Thursday, July 9, 2020

Would Donald Quit, Continued - Updated

Just going to post this:

This may be a one-off or there may be a growing chorus discussing the possibility of Donald declining to run for re-election. I'll add to this post as I see more.

Update. Another tweet about Donald not running:



I wrote about the possibility of a Pence pardon for Donald back in January, 2019. I said then I don't think it's a given and I still don't:

I know I've wandered into the weeds a bit in this post, but there's one more thing on my mind as I ponder Mike Pence's future. A month after Gerald Ford became president he issued an unconditional pardon of Richard Nixon. He did it partly out of compassion for Nixon and his family, partly because he believed that having to resign the presidency counted as a serious punishment, meaning that Nixon didn't "get off scot-free," and partly so he (Ford) and the country could move on from Watergate.

Would Pence follow Ford's lead and pardon Donald, if he was in a position to do so? Ford's pardon of Nixon was volcanically unpopular and the conventional wisdom is that it played a significant part in Ford's loss to Jimmy Carter in 1976. I think it's accurate to say that Ford didn't anticipate how unpopular the Nixon pardon would be. (In his memoir, Ford wrote that he was surprised at how little compassion American voters felt for Richard Nixon after he resigned. I wonder how much compassion Americans would feel for Donald Trump.) President Ford had no historic precedent to look to for guidance but Pence would have one. Based on Ford's experience, my best guess right now is that even if Pence wanted to pardon Donald, he wouldn't do it before the 2020 election. Too risky.

In our "what if" scenario, Donald's best shot at a pardon would probably be a Pence loss in 2020. Soon-to-be former President Pence could issue the pardon on Inauguration Day, 2021, right before he walks out the door of the White House for the last time, which is when outgoing presidents traditionally issue pardons that are expected to be controversial or unpopular. Would he? Pence, who would be 61 at the time, presumably would be looking forward to enjoying the cushy life of a former president. (He could also, of course, be thinking about running again in 2024.) Would he be willing to risk his popularity, and possibly some of his future income from paid speeches and a memoir, by taking the heat for letting Donald off the hook? There's no way to know right now but I'd say it's not a given. (Read the entire post here.)

What about the opposite switch? Trump stays in place to run for reelection but he dumps Mike Pence and picks another running mate? Former Democratic strategist Ed Kilgore, writing at NYMag.com, thinks it's a possibility:

First, Trump is in very serious danger of not being reelected. He needs a game changer to reset the race, and a fresh veep is a time-honored way to do that, even if it involves (to quote the words said to John McCain in 2008 about choosing Sarah Palin) "high risk [and potentially] high reward." Indeed, if, like Trump, you have no real second-term agenda to tout and no capacity to "pivot to the center" and pursue swing voters via messaging or policies, it's one of the few cards in the deck.

 ... Second, Trump could perhaps try to blame Pence for his administration's deadliest and most politically damaging error, its mishandling of COVID-19 from the get-go. The veep is, after all, the head of the White House Task Force, even though he has consistently given up the spotlight to Trump and to public-health advisers like Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx. In an administration with constant personnel changes and little sense of reciprocal loyalty, it wouldn't be that out of the ordinary for the sycophant-in-chief to be asked to step aside as one last act of service to the warrior-king, taking the fall for a public-health disaster. (Read the entire article here.) 

I wrote about the possibility of Donald dumping Pence here, here and here.

Update #2. I was listening to the Campaign HQ podcast, which is hosted by David Plouffe and he also mentioned the possibility that Donald dumps Pence, saying that [Trump] is going to "look to change the channel" and a VP switch might be a way to do that. The episode was recorded yesterday.

Update #3 on July 17. I'm not watching Morning Joe this morning but apparently Mika and Donny are still considering the possibility that Donald will drop out of the race:



Read my first Would Donald Quit? post here.

Update #4 on July 25. Yesterday Nikki Haley sent out a slobberingly sycophantic tweet; apparently she's still dreaming of replacing Mike Pence on the ticket:
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