The Guessing Game

Tuesday afternoon update: 2 additions to the list. Gwyneth Paltrow is engaged, and 2014 Bachelorette Andi Dorfman has released her 2nd book, in which she throws some shade at the show and her fellow contestants. If you must read it, it's called Single State of Mind.

Monday afternoon update: Oprah. Her Golden Globes speech has stirred up talk of her running for president in 2020. Should she? Political scientist Jonathan Bernstein says no:

Well, no. Please.

I suspect it's unlikely the lesson Democrats will learn from Donald Trump is: Celebrity presidents are a great idea, only next time, let's do it better. But they might -- especially because it's quite possible that those in the media who profited from the Trump campaign (and gave him millions of dollars of free publicity) might be eager to find a new celebrity to adore in 2020. 

It's still just as bad an idea as it was for Trump -- and for previous celebrity almost-campaigns, such as Warren Beatty's in the 1980s. 

The truth is the same as always: The presidency is a real job, and a damn hard one. The easily visible parts -- the speeches and the interviews, even the moral leadership -- are a relatively small part of the responsibilities of the office. There's simply no substitute for a good grasp of public policy and government affairs. 

There's also no substitute for political skills, which require training and experience, and are simply different from business skills, or cultural mastery, or the ability to perform. Ronald Reagan, the only president before Trump with a show-business background, had served eight years as a big-state governor and had learned lessons from two losing presidential campaigns before he finally won. He also had years of involvement in politics and public affairs before his explicitly political career: Remember, he headed up a union. 

Of course, there are plenty of politicians who have moved from Hollywood or sports to elected office. Many of them, including Reagan, Jack Kemp and Bill Bradley, acquitted themselves well as public servants. I do think that some experience outside of politics is valuable for those eventually seeking the presidency, and I think it's good when members of Congress have a variety of different backgrounds. But the idea of business executives, actors or talk-show hosts -- or even someone who is all three -- going straight from there to the White House has always been a bad idea, and I certainly don't see anything over the last 12 months that provides any evidence to the contrary. With any luck, Democratic party actors and primary voters will agree in 2020. (Read his column here.)  

Original post:
What will be on the cover of People magazine this week? My guesses:

Paris Hilton, Alexa Ray Joel and/or Lara Spencer: Engaged
Gretchen Carlson: A former Miss America, she's now the new head of the organization
Chip and Joanna Gaines: She's pregnant
Tonya Harding: Her scandal is back in the news because of the new movie I, Tonya, she gave a big interview to ABC that airs Thursday
Michael Wolff, Steve Bannon, POTUS and who knows who else: Fire and Fury, indeed
Elizabeth Gilbert: Her partner died of cancer
The Golden Globes Awards: The show is tonight, some of the stars will be wearing black as part of the #MeToo moment
David Letterman and/or Barack Obama: President Obama's first televised interview since leaving office will be with Letterman
Carrie Underwood: Seriously injured in a fall
Princess Kate: Well into her third pregnancy, she turns 36 this week
Ashley Wagner: "Furious" about her scores at US National Championship, she's not selected for the Olympic team