I wouldn’t spend a lot of time studying the polls to find out how real Walker’s numbers
are. We already know that most voters had barely heard of the Wisconsin
governor a month or so ago, and that he’s attracted
excellent coverage, especially
in Republican-aligned media, over the last several weeks.
The first thing to watch for real is whether he
receives a flood of endorsements from politicians, interest-group leaders,
campaign and governing professionals, and other important party actors.
And a second indication that Walker is gaining ground
would be if some possible rivals drop out. In particular, watch four other
Republican governors who have started out slowly or appear to be struggling:
Chris Christie, Bobby Jindal, John Kasich and Mike Pence. If one or more drop
out in the next few weeks, it may be because uncommitted resources are drying
up and because the people they are reaching out to are telling them 2016 isn't
going to be their year.
The lack of such
signs was key when
Mitt Romney made a big splash about running. Even though he was polling well,
he quickly gave up. Nor did the party immediately rally around Jeb Bush after
he first expressed interest -- in contrast to the early
acclamation his brother received in the 2000 cycle. Jeb has
chosen to fight it out.
Every politician has a personal calculation of what he
or she is willing to risk on any particular campaign. Overall, however, if
people are still jumping in, it means the race is wide open. If candidates are
leaving, this probably indicates that most party factions have committed
somewhere, even if they haven't said so publicly.
Walker appeared to be a formidable contender
even before his surge, and he's in better shape now than he was a month ago.
But until the party sends clear signs it is beginning to decide on its nominee,
I’m leaving him where I’ve had him for a while: in a top tier with Bush and Florida Senator Marco
Rubio. Nothing more.
Fascinating. Read the entire post here.
Days to Election Day: 621
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