And Then There Were Nine? - Updated

I currently have 21 candidates on my "I'm Running" list: (Added Wednesday afternoon: We're now down to 20 after Kirsten Gillibrand dropped out.)

I'm Running: Declared Democratic candidates, in order of their announcement

1. John Delaney (7/28/17) 
2. Andrew Yang (11/6/17) 
3. Elizabeth Warren (12/31/18)
4. Tulsi Gabbard (1/11/19)
5. Julián Castro (1/12/19)
6. Kamala Harris (1/21/19)
7. Pete Buttigieg (1/23/19)
8. Marianne Williamson (1/30/19)
9. Cory Booker (2/1/19)
10. Amy Klobuchar (2/10/19)
11. Bernie Sanders (2/19/19)
12. Beto O'Rourke (3/14/19)
13. Tim Ryan (4/5/19)
14. Joe Biden (4/25/19)
15. Michael Bennet (5/2/19)
16. Wayne Messam (Declared 3/28, added to this list on 5/2/19)
17. Steve Bullock (5/14/19)
18. Bill de Blasio (5/16/19)
19. Joe Sestak (6/22/19) 
20. Tom Steyer (7/9/19)

Now, in a column posted today, political scientist Jonathan Bernstein says only nine are what he calls plausible nominees:

1. Joe Biden
2. Elizabeth Warren
3. Kamala Harris
4. Pete Buttigieg
5. Cory Booker 
6. Beto O'Rourke 
7. Julián Castro
8. Amy Klobuchar
9. Bernie Sanders

Here's why :

We’ll find out Wednesday whether any more candidates have qualified for the next round of Democratic debates. So far, 10 have made it in. If we’re going to rank them, one could do worse than what Richard Skinner said on Tuesday: “I feel like there’s Tier 1 (Joe, E-Dubs, Bernie, Harris), Tier 2 (Pete B, Booker, Beto, Castro, Amy K) and Tier 3 (most others, mostly hopeless). But then also`problematic’ tier (Yang, Steyer, Tulsi, Marianne).”

The big difference I’d have with Skinner’s analysis is that I can’t see Bernie Sanders in the top tier. In fact, I’d put him at the bottom of the second group, making him (more or less) the ninth-most-likely Democrat to win the nomination. It’s true that Sanders is still second in the RealClearPolitics polling average. Yet he’s sixth in the FiveThirtyEight index of high-profile endorsements, and Seth Masket’s interviews with early-state activists portray him as a factional candidate. Could I see a scenario in which Sanders wins? Just barely. Iowa and New Hampshire were unusually good for him in 2016 and appear to be this time as well; if he can manage to win in both, perhaps opposition within the party melts away after all.

Separating the rest of that top group – Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris – seems impossible to me. They each have advantages and disadvantages, but they’re all plausible nominees. Each has support from party actors, but none has a clear lead. Biden leads in overall endorsement points, but both Harris and Warren can claim to have landed more signs of party support recently.

I still think that makes everyone in the next group – Pete Buttigieg, Cory Booker, Beto O’Rourke, Julian Castro and Amy Klobuchar – a bit more likely than Sanders. They’re behind in the polls, to be sure. But each has signs of party support, while none looks like a factional candidate. What they each need is to separate their image from the crowd. It would be no surprise if they all fizzled, the way that Biden, Chris Dodd and Bill Richardson all did during the 2008 campaign despite having solid credentials. But each appears able to capitalize if they do demonstrate solid gains.

The remaining candidates seem unlikely to come anywhere close to the nomination. Failing to qualify for the September debates is a real blow. And no one in the “problematic” group Skinner identifies – including Andrew Yang, who has qualified for the next round – appears to have much party support, suggesting that even if they can move up temporarily in the polls, they’re unlikely to ride that to victory.

So we’re likely down to nine plausible nominees, with some small percentage chance for the remaining field combined. (This is the column in its entirety.)

As I'm writing, at about 10.30 a.m. Wednesday, the Washington Post says 10 candidates have qualified for the upcoming September debate, the nine on Bernstein's list above, plus Andrew Yang. Today is the deadline to qualify; if anyone else slides in at the last minute, I'll update this post. (Read the WaPo article here.) 

Update on Wednesday afternoon. NY Senator Kirsten Gillibrand has dropped out of the race for president. I've moved her name to the "I'm Not Running Anymore" list:

I'm Not Running Anymore: Declared candidates who have dropped out:

1. Richard Ojeda (1/25/19)
2. Eric Swalwell (7/8/19)
3. John Hickenlooper (8/15/19)
4. Jay Inslee  (8/21/19)
5. Seth Moulton (8/23/19)
6. Kirsten Gillibrand (8/28/19) 

This is a tweet from 2013, I'm posting it here just in case: 

I'm just going to call this right now, apropos of nothing: 1st female U.S. president will be Kirsten Gillibrand. (Foggier on year. 2020?)

— Dan Zak (@MrDanZak) January 7, 2013