This Day In History, 2015: Ted Cruz Is Running

In the last presidential election, Ted Cruz was the first Republican to announce his candidacy, four years ago today. By July 30 there were 17 declared Republican candidates:

2016 Declared GOP Candidates and the date (in 2015) they announced their candidacy: 

1. Ted Cruz (March 23) 
2. Rand Paul (April 7)
3. Marco Rubio (April 14)
4. Dr. Ben Carson (May 3) 
5. Carly Fiorina (May 4) 
6. Mike Huckabee (May 5) 
7. Rick Santorum (May 27)
8. George Pataki (May 28)
9. Lindsey Graham (June 1) 
10. Rick Perry (June 4) 
11. Jeb Bush (June 15)
12. Donald Trump (June 16) 
13. Bobby Jindal (June 24) 
14. Chris Christie (June 30)
15. Scott Walker (July 13) 
16. John Kasich (July 21) 
17. Jim Gilmore (July 30) 

By September (2015) the winnowing out had begun, with Rick Perry the first to drop out, on September 11, followed by Scott Walker on September 21. 

We're off to a faster start this time around, with 15 Democrats and 1 Independent already declared or actively exploring running:

I'm Running, 2020: Declared Democratic Candidates, in order of their announcement

1. John Delaney (7/28/17) 
2. Andrew Yang (11/6/17) 
3. Elizabeth Warren (12/31/18)
4. Tulsi Gabbard (1/11/19)
5. Julián Castro (1/12/19)
6. Kirsten Gillibrand (1/16/19)  
7. Kamala Harris (1/21/19)
8. Pete Buttigieg (1/23/19)
9. Howard Schultz (1/29/19) * Running as an Independent 
10. Marianne Williamson (1/30/19)
11. Cory Booker (2/1/19)
12. Amy Klobuchar (2/10/19)
13. Bernie Sanders (2/19/19)
14. Jay Inslee  (3/1/19)
15. John Hickenlooper (3/4/19)
16. Beto O'Rourke (3/14/19)

There's also one former candidate, former West Virginia state senator Richard Ojeda, who was a declared, and extremely unlikely, candidate for a short period of time.

How many Democrats will ultimately end up running? Of the 18 names on the lists below, I'd say Joe Biden is almost a sure bet to run, with Michael Bennet and Steve Bullock as strong possibilities and Seth Moulton and Eric Swalwell possible but less likely. The rest are probably not running, in my estimation, although I could still be surprised.

Potential Democratic Candidates, in alphabetical order:

1. Stacey Abrams (2018 candidate for Georgia governor) 
2. Michael Bennet (Colorado Senator) added 2/10/19
3. Joe Biden (Former VP)
4. Steve Bullock (Governor of Montana)
5. Bill de Blasio (Mayor of New York City)
6. Terry McAuliffe (Former governor of Virginia)
7. Seth Moulton (Congressman from Massachusetts) 
8. Chris Murphy (Connecticut senator)
9. Eric Swalwell (Congressman from California) added Nov. 8

I'm Probably Not Running: Long-shot candidates who don't appear to be doing any of the things an actual candidate must do: 

1. Jerry Brown (former Governor of California)
2. Mark Cuban (Businessman, owner of the Dallas Mavericks)
3. Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson (Actor) added Nov. 10
4. Tim Kaine (Virginia senator, 2016 VP nominee)
5. Joe Kennedy (Congressman from Massachusetts) added Nov. 10
6. John Kerry (former Secretary of State, 2004 Democratic nominee) added Nov. 10 
7. Tim Ryan (Congressman from Ohio) added Sept. 8
8. Mark Warner (Virginia senator) added Nov. 10
9. Mark Zuckerberg (Businessman, founder of Facebook)

Days until Election Day: 590