Saturday, June 27, 2020

This May Become A Big Story - Updated

At 9.30 this morning, the Washington Post posted a story online titled "Russian operation targeted coalition troops in Afghanistan, intelligence finds." This is the story in its entirety:

A Russian military spy unit offered bounties to Taliban-linked militants to attack coalition forces in Afghanistan, including U.S. and British troops, in a striking escalation of the Kremlin’s hostility toward the United States, American intelligence has found.

The Russian operation, first reported by the New York Times, has generated an intense debate within the Trump administration about how best to respond to a troubling new tactic by a nation that most U.S. officials regard as a potential foe but that President Trump has frequently embraced as a friend, said the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive intelligence matter.

The officials said administration leaders learned of reported bounties in recent months from U.S. intelligence agencies, prompting a series of internal discussions including a large interagency meeting that was held in late March. According to one person familiar with the matter, the responses discussed at that meeting included sending a diplomatic communication to relay disapproval and authorizing new sanctions.

Russian involvement in operations targeting Americans, if confirmed, is likely to lead to outrage on Capitol Hill and questions about why the administration has not responded to it.

Spokesmen for the National Security Council, the Pentagon, and the CIA declined to comment.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement that the story, “illustrates the low intellectual abilities of propagandists from the American intelligence, who instead of inventing something more reliable have to come up with such nonsense... However, what else can be expected from intelligence, which miserably failed the twenty-year war in Afghanistan”

The Taliban denied any involvement.

“We categorically reject the notion of ever planning or carrying out targeted attacks against U.S. or foreign forces at the behest of foreign intelligence or for the sake of collecting bounty,” said Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid in a statement, “and we also reject receiving material support from foreign intelligence because such undertakings are harmful for the sovereign decision-making of any country and movement.”

It was not immediately clear whether the militants approached by Russia as part of the initiative had succeeded in killing Americans or allied forces. News of the murky initiative comes as American diplomats attempt to kindle political talks that could put end to America’s longest war, now in its 19th year.

Earlier this year, the administration struck an initial peace deal with the Taliban. The agreement, which outlined the full withdrawal of the U.S. military within 14 months, was supposed to lead to a prompt start to talks between militant representatives and the Afghan government.

But the Afghan parties have failed to reach agreement on interim steps, and with the coronavirus crisis taking hold in Afghanistan, those talks have yet to materialize. Hanging over the process is Trump’s oft-stated desire to remove U.S. forces from the country, where local forces have been unable to secure an edge over the Taliban despite two decades of foreign funding and advising.

The attempt to stoke violence against Americans, if confirmed, would also represent a significant departure from Moscow’s earlier position toward Islamist militants in Afghanistan. Previously, U.S. officials had cited what they characterized as sporadic, low-level Russian support for the Taliban, including the supply of small arms via Afghanistan’s northern neighbors.

After the Soviet Union’s own punishing insurgent war in Afghanistan in the 1980s, Moscow remained largely in the background in the years after U.S. and NATO forces entered the country in the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. But as America’s anxiousness to depart has fueled greater uncertainty, Russia has appeared to attempt to wield greater influence in recent years.

While Moscow’s motives for alleged bounties were not immediately clear, officials said they might include retaliation for the U.S. military’s 2018 killing of Russian mercenary troops working for Yevgeniy Prigozhin, an oligarch with links to Russian President Vladimir Putin, in Syria, or simply, as one official put it, an attempt to “muddy the negotiations on Afghanistan by throwing a stick in that.”

During the Soviet war in Afghanistan, which ended in 1989, the U.S. government provided weaponry and funds to Afghan mujahideen rebels fighting against Soviet forces.

The unit that officials identified as responsible for allegedly offering the bounties has also been linked to the poisoning and attempted murder of former Russian military spy Sergei Skripal in Britain in 2018.

While that attack — along with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its role in the war in Syria — has generated strong criticism in Europe and from many of Trump’s most senior advisers, the president himself has frequently appeared to have a chummy relationship with Putin, downplaying Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. election and other Russian transgressions.

Russia is one of a number of issues on which Trump’s instincts have appeared to differ from those of his senior advisers. The United States has imposed sanctions on Russia over a number of issues, including its invasion of Ukraine, cyberattacks, and election meddling, while the Pentagon has identified Russia as second only to China in terms of its “great power” rivals.

Military officials this month spoke out in unusually harsh terms over what they said was Russia’s decision to provide fourth-generation jet fighters to a rogue general in Libya, adding to a spiraling proxy conflict there.

News of the cloaked operation comes as the Pentagon confirms that it has completed an initial drawdown of American forces to about 8,600 servicemembers from Afghanistan, a first step toward a full withdrawal. Officials have said the full withdrawal remains “conditions-based,” suggesting they will seek to keep a sizable force there if the Taliban does not make a political deal with the Afghanistan government.

While Taliban forces have halted attacks against the United States as part of that deal, the militants have continued to assault Afghan troops, making for what one senior Afghan official described this week as the most deadly conditions in 19 years.  

 Update. The denials have started: 

... and the responses: 
























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