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Will Emma Stone win the Oscar for Best Actress? Probably. Based on what I'm reading, she's the favorite. Will Meryl Streep win her 4th Oscar, for her performance in Florence Foster Jenkins? Probably not, but I think it's possible.
First, some history. Did you know that Julie Andrews won a Best Actress Oscar for Mary Poppins, in 1966? She did and there's a fascinating backstory. Mary Poppins is a delightful movie and Andrews is delightful in it, but no one would argue that it was the kind of complex and nuanced performance that usually wins an Oscar. So why did Julie win? Conventional wisdom is that her Hollywood colleagues were supporting her by sending a "F**k You" message to Jack Warner, the producer who refused to cast Andrews in the film version of My Fair Lady.
In the early 1960s, Andrews was a Tony-nominated Broadway star, having appeared in The Boyfriend, Camelot, and as the original Eliza Doolittle in My Fair Lady. She was not, at that point, a movie star and Warner wanted a star. So he cast Audrey Hepburn. Walt Disney cast Andrews as Mary Poppins and the rest, as the saying goes, is history. My Fair Lady was nominated for 12 Oscars and won eight, including Best Picture and Best Actor for Rex Harrison. Audrey Hepburn wasn't even nominated for her star turn as Eliza.
What does all this have to do with Meryl Streep? I haven't seen Florence Foster Jenkins, but my perception is that it's not the kind of complex and nuanced role that usually wins Oscars, especially for Meryl Streep. So why do I think she might win? Because of this:
Meryl Streep, one of the most over-rated actresses in Hollywood, doesn't know me but attacked last night at the Golden Globes. She is a.....— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 9, 2017
Hillary flunky who lost big. For the 100th time, I never "mocked" a disabled reporter (would never do that) but simply showed him.......— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 9, 2017
"groveling" when he totally changed a 16 year old story that he had written in order to make me look bad. Just more very dishonest media!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 9, 2017
One of the most over-rated actresses in Hollywood? A Hillary flunky? I think there's a pretty good chance Streep's Hollywood colleagues might be in the mood to send a great big "F**k You" to the 45th president. We'll know two weeks from tonight.
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