Wednesday, March 4, 2020

After Super Tuesday - Updated

It was a great night for Joe Biden and a terrible night for Michael Bloomberg, who has now dropped out and endorsed Biden. I never really warmed to the thought of Mr. Bloomberg as president, although he would be better than Donald. What you may have forgotten is that one year ago tomorrow Bloomberg said he wouldn't run:



 He changed his mind in November, apparently believing that if he threw as
much money as humanly possible into the race he could buy himself the job.
Truthfully I'm glad that didn't work; I'm also glad he's still committed to
defeating Donald Trump and will hopefully put more of his money towards
that goal:  

  


In other news, Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo ponders Bernie Sanders' place in all this:

I’ve written a few times that my greatest fear of a Sanders general election campaign is that it would be one half against Donald Trump and one half against the Democratic party itself. The results last night help us understand some of these liabilities and dynamics. Insurgent candidacies and movements have certain enduring, inherent qualities. The simplest is the belief that there’s something wrong, outdated or corrupt about the organizational leadership you’re trying to overthrow. That’s obvious. Otherwise, why are you an insurgent?

Sanders is a twofold political figure. He’s been a federal legislator for a quarter century operating within the conventional political system. He’s also been a left activist for almost 60 years. That oppositionist mentality is deep in his political DNA and that of his campaign. It’s one of its core strengths. It’s magnified among his most vocal supporters.

We’ve had debates here about what Sanders means by the ‘party establishment’ or ‘party elites’ or the ‘donor class’. But there’s a conflation of party power structures and elite leadership and much of the party itself. And by this I mean the mass of voters and activists who constitute the party itself outside the faction that he leads. A key part of Sanders’ message (and again, greatly amplified by his most vocal backers) is that that those other people, who collectively make up much of the party are either wrong on the key issues, hypocritical on policy or even corrupt. Calling them “the establishment” makes that easier to say. But 60% or 70% of Democratic primary voters by definition can’t be the establishment.

If you’re bidding to take over management of a political party and your politics, campaign or supporters have defined that party as in real ways the enemy or the problem that’s going to be a tough sell. I mean, this is obvious.

Here’s where we get into that question I discussed with that longtime reader about what really constitutes “the establishment.” The Sanders campaign often talks as though it’s only talking about an establishment of insiders and power brokers. But that just leaves millions of activists and voters erased from the picture entirely. The last 72 hours is a case in point. To hear many Sanders surrogates describe it, the establishment and power brokers closed ranks and pushed Biden into the lead. But again, this just pretends like millions of voters don’t exist, or function as pawns of party elites. So you have one theory of political agency for Sanders supporters and another for everyone else. This stands no kind of political scrutiny.

Did key endorsements, especially from Jim Clyburn but also from Klobuchar, Buttigieg and O’Rourke, have an effect? Of course. But focusing only on those ignores what was a parallel reaction among numerous ordinary Democratic voters to the events of the last ten days. The interplay between these two developments is key.

Here we get to a critical, distinct dynamic of this race. Sanders was dominating the primary race with about 25% support. If you won’t or can’t expand your coalition beyond that number you’re in a highly vulnerable position, particularly if you’ve created a confrontational or antipathetic relationship with other factions within the party.

This is not to say the Sanders faction of the party is the only one that faces coalitional problems. Far from it. It will be critical for whoever wins the nomination to craft a story to let the supporters of the losing candidates come on board. That is work every Democrat and really everyone who wants to unseat Donald Trump has in front of them. (This is the article in its entirety.)

Two other interesting Super Tuesday tidbits, both from Texas: Pierce Bush, a grandson of George H.W. Bush, was running for a House seat representing a section of Houston and lost in the primary. It's the first time someone named Bush has lost in Texas in 40 years. And Dr. Ronny Jackson, Donald's former official physician ("he could live for 200 years...") also running for a House seat, will advance to a run-off:

A former White House physician whose nomination by President Donald Trump to lead the Department of Veterans Affairs was derailed by allegations of drinking on the job and over-prescribing drugs has advanced to a Republican runoff for a rural Texas congressional seat.

Former Rear Adm. Ronny Jackson emerged Tuesday from a crowded GOP primary as one of the top candidates in a comfortably Republican district that covers much of North Texas and the Panhandle. Jackson will face agriculture advocate Josh Winegarner in the May runoff. (From the Washington Post; read more here.)

I've updated my lists:

I'm Running Declared Democratic candidates, in order of their announcement:
  1. Tulsi Gabbard (1/11/19)
  2. Bernie Sanders (2/19/19)
  3. Joe Biden (4/25/19)

I'm Not Running Anymore Declared candidates who have dropped out:
  1. Richard Ojeda (1/25/19)
  2. Eric Swalwell (7/8/19)
  3. John Hickenlooper (8/15/19)
  4. Jay Inslee  (8/21/19)
  5. Seth Moulton (8/23/19)
  6. Kirsten Gillibrand (8/28/19)
  7. Howard Schultz (9/6/19) * Ran as an Independent   
  8. Bill de Blasio (9/20/19)
  9. Tim Ryan (10/24/19)
  10. Beto O'Rourke (11/1/19)
  11. Wayne Messam (11/20/19)
  12. Joe Sestak (12/1/19)
  13. Steve Bullock (12/2/19)
  14. Kamala Harris (12/3/19)
  15. Julián Castro (1/2/20)
  16. Marianne Williamson (1/10/20)
  17. Cory Booker (1/13/20)
  18. John Delaney (1/31/20) 
  19. Andrew Yang (2/11/20) 
  20. Michael Bennet (2/11/20)
  21. Deval Patrick (2/12/20)
  22. Tom Steyer (3/1/20)
  23. Pete Buttigieg (3/1/20)
  24. Amy Klobuchar (3/2/20)
  25. Michael Bloomberg (3/4/20) 
  26. Elizabeth Warren (3/5/20)

    Days until the election: 243

    Update on Friday morning: Elizabeth Warren has dropped out too, leaving Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders to duke it out. Yes, Tulsi Gabbard is still technically a declared candidate, but she doesn't appear to be doing any of the things candidates generally do and she's obviously not going to be the nominee. I've updated the lists above.

    And mark your calendar, here are the dates for the conventions and the general election debates:
     
    July 13-16 Democratic Convention, in Milwaukee

    August 24-27 Republican Convention, in Charlotte

    September 29 First Presidential Debate, in South Bend

    October 7 Vice Presidential Debate, in Salt Lake City

    October 15 Second Presidential Debate, in Ann Arbor

    October 22 Final Presidential Debate, in Nashville

    November 3 Election Day

    Concerning the debates, I'm wondering if Donald will agree to debate at all. Given his observable deterioration, in particular his growing inability to speak clearly, it wouldn't surprise me if he announces that he just doesn't feel like debating Joe or Bernie.

    And one more thing. The Week has published the first article I've seen this time around with the word "veepstakes" in its title. In their "if Biden's the nominee" scenario they ponder five names I've seen on other such lists, Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar, Kamala Harris, Cory Booker and Stacey Abrams. Then they mention a "true dark horse," Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham of New Mexico. (She was in 10th place on a VP list the Washington Post published in December. Read more here.) Why Governor Lujan Grisham? This is why:

    That leaves the person who might be the best choice of all — and a true dark horse in the competition to become second in line to the most powerful job on the planet: Sixty-year-old Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham of New Mexico. A lawyer and former member of the House of Representatives, where she served as chairwoman of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, Lujan Grisham became the first Democratic Latina governor in the country in 2018. Along the way, she's also served as New Mexico's secretary of health. On the personal side, she shares with Biden a family history marked by tragedy: Her sister was diagnosed with a brain tumor as a child and died at age 21, while her husband (with whom she had two children) died of a brain aneurysm in 2004.

    Solid experience as a legislator and chief executive, the potential to woo Hispanic voters to the polls, a compelling and relatable biography — in all of these ways, Lujan Grisham could well prove to be the perfect choice to serve as Joe Biden's running mate and potential VP. (Read the entire article here.)
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