Wednesday, February 3, 2016

Updating The List

Wednesday afternoon update: CNN is reporting that Rick Santorum is suspending his campaign later today. 

Original post: 
The people have spoken, at least a couple hundred thousand of them, and the Iowa caucuses are in the history books. Voters got to vote, of course, and the results are fascinating, but in addition, pundits and political scientists often say that one of the functions of the early state primaries and caucuses is "winnowing," or to put it another way, getting unloved candidates to face reality and go back to living their regular lives. 

Tuesday morning Mike Huckabee started that process, with the announcement that he is suspending his campaign; today Rand Paul called it quits. (Is the state of Kentucky regretting letting itself be talked into a caucus instead of a primary? Probably.) Conventional wisdom based on what I've been reading since Monday's caucuses is that the campaigns of Dr. Carson, Carly Fiorina, Rick Santorum and Jim Gilmore are over in all but name too. 

On the Democratic side, Martin O'Malley has suspended his campaign too, leaving Hill and Bern to slug it out in New Hampshire and who knows how many more primaries down the road. Current polls are predicting a big win for Bern in next Tuesday's NH primary but the state has a history of supporting the Clintons, both Hill in 2008 and Bill way back in 1992.

Here's how my GOP list looks as of now:  

Declared (and still in the race) GOP Candidates
  1. Ted Cruz (March 23) 
  2. Marco Rubio (April 14)
  3. Dr. Ben Carson (May 3) 
  4. Carly Fiorina (May 4) 
  5. Jeb Bush (June 15)
  6. Donald Trump (June 16) 
  7. Chris Christie (June 30)
  8. John Kasich (July 21) 
  9. Jim Gilmore (July 30) 
Officially Not Running
Rob Portman (Dec 2, 2014)
Paul Ryan (Jan 12, 2015)
Mitt Romney (Jan 30, 2015)
Rick Snyder (May 7, 2015)
John Bolton (May 14, 2015) 
Mike Pence (May 20, 2015) 
Bob Ehrlich (August 4, 2015)

You're Fired!: Candidates Who Have Dropped Out
Rick Perry (June 4 - Sept. 11)
Scott Walker (July 13 - Sept. 21)
Bobby Jindal (June 24 - November 17)
Lindsey Graham (June 1 - December 21)
George Pataki (May 28 - December 29)
Mike Huckabee (May 5 - Feb 2)
Rand Paul (April 17 - Feb 3)
Rick Santorum (May 27 - Feb 3)

Days until Election Day: 278

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