Two More

Two more candidates officially jumped into the presidential race in the last couple of days: Senator Marco Rubio on the Republican side, and no surprise, Hillary Clinton for the Democrats. (Hill is such a prohibitive favorite on the D side that there hasn't been much of interest to blog about, at least so far.)  

One of the most interesting things about Senator Rubio is that he's from Florida and prior to his official announcement conventional wisdom appeared to be that he wouldn't run against Jeb Bush, who is sometimes described as Rubio's "mentor" and is also from Florida. Apparently the two men aren't as close as once assumed and it will be fascinating to see them run against each other. I've seen a couple of articles suggesting that it's not yet Rubio's "turn" and that he's stronger as a potential VP candidate, although that can't happen if Jeb is the nominee. Why? Because of a bit of poli-geek trivia: an arcane law that restricts electors (members of the electoral college) from voting for two candidates from the same state. Huh? Here's how Snopes explains it: 

[C]onfusion arises when people misunderstand [the law] to govern the actions of candidates rather than electors. Nothing in the constitution bars presidential and vice-presidential candidates from the same state from running, being elected, or holding office together; it only bars the electors from their home state from voting for both of them. 

For example, suppose the Republican party nominated for their national ticket a pair of candidates who both hailed from the state of Nevada. If the Republican ticket received the most popular votes in that state in the general election, Nevada's electors could not cast ballots for both candidates — for at least one of the two offices (presumably vice-president), each of Nevada's electors would have to vote for someone off the ticket who was not a resident of Nevada. Republican electors in every state other than Nevada, however, would be free to vote for both candidates. Read the entire article here. 

So who's left to officially join the race? Dr. Ben Carson is announcing on May 4, presumably Jeb and probably Chris Christie, will do so within the next few weeks as well.  

What about the rest of the potential candidates? Jonathan Bernstein still has Bush, Rubio and Scott Walker as his top three, followed by seven "long shots:"

So who besides the top three has a long but realistic shot? I'm going to put Ted Cruz and Rand Paul aside, because no one similar to them has ever come close to a nomination in the modern era. 

But seven other candidates could take real advantage of a surge of positive publicity -- something that could happen to any candidate at any time (just ask Herman Cain). Here’s a rundown in more or less the order of their chances: 

1. John Kasich
2. Mike Huckabee
3. Mike Pence
4. Bobby Jindal
5. Rick Perry
6. Rick Santorum
7. Chris Christie

Why is Christie at the bottom? Bernstein again: 

Chris Christie is the last and least likely long shot. Republicans don’t like him now, but if that changed rapidly – and no one is better at creating political drama than the New Jersey governor -- the same party actors who were interested in him in 2013 would take a second look.

I've updated my list. 

Declared Candidates
Ted Cruz (March 23) 
Rand Paul (April 7)
Marco Rubio (April 14)

Possible Republican Candidates
Jeb Bush
Dr. Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindall
John Kasich
Mike Pence
Rick Perry
Rick Santorum
Scott Walker

Late Adds on December 22
Carly Fiorina
Lindsey Graham
George Pataki

Officially Not Running
Rob Portman (Dec 2)
Paul Ryan (Jan 12)
Mitt Romney (Jan 30)

Days until Election Day: 573