Last year at this time: Issue dated September 23, 2019
For this week, just a few guesses:
Colton Underwood and/or Cassie Randolph: Their break-up has turned nasty; she filed (and obtained) a restraining order against him Tyra Banks: The new host of Dancing With The Stars Rachael Ray: Talking about the fire that destroyed her home Jennifer Aniston and Brad Pitt: They both participated a fundraiser table read of Fast Times at Ridgemont High (read more here)
Andrew Gillum: The former mayor of Tallahassee, Florida, who came close to winning his race for governor of Florida in 2018, has come out as bi-sexual
The Kardashians: They've announced that their reality show will end next year. (If you haven't been paying attention, it may surprise you to know that Kim turns 40 in October)
Prince Harry: He turns 36 today (September 15,) which means he's now the age Diana was when she died
Katie Holmes: A new boyfriend?
Stories that appear on the new cover will be highlighted in green.
What will be on the cover of People this week? My guesses:
The Cuomo Brothers: Older brother Andrew, the governor of New York, and younger brother Chris, a CNN anchor who has COVID 19, have become a double act on television (read more here) Hunter Biden: His son was born (read more here) The Queen: A rare and moving address to citizens of the U.K., seen by people around the world Peter Beard: The famed photographer, artist and writer, age 82 and suffering from dementia, disappeared from his home a week ago Kathleen Kennedy Townsend: Her daughter Maeve and grandson Gideon died after a canoe accident last week; I wrote about it here. As of Monday evening, Maeve's body has been found; the search for Gideon's body will continue tomorrow Kobe Bryant: Selected for the Hall of Fame Channing Tatum: After a brief reconciliation, he and his wife are splitting up again Joanna Gaines: Her new lifestyle channel, named Magnolia, will debut in October Michelle Money: Her daughter had a brutal accident while skateboarding, she's been in a coma for over a week with brain trauma and a skull fracture. (Who's Michelle Money? She competed on The Bachelor in 2011, on Brad Womack's season, then went on to win Season 1 of Bachelor In Paradise) Duffy: The Welsh singer tells a harrowing tale of abduction and rape Modern Family: After 11 seasons, the final episode airs April 8 Celebrities Who Have COVID 19: --Andrew Parker Bowles: Camilla's ex-husband has the coronavirus at age 80 --Boris Johnson:The British Prime Minister has been hospitalized due to COVID 19; earlier today he was moved to the intensive care unit --Colton Underwood: Colton appears to have recovered; his new book is out but because of social distancing, he's not able to do much to promote it. Read more here --Navy Captain Brent Crozier: Captain Crozier was fired by the Navy for writing a letter asking for medical help for the sailors on his ship, he's now been diagnosed with the virus --Ali Wentworth: She has the virus, husband George Stephanopoulos has been hosting Good Morning, America from home
Stories that appear on the new cover will be highlighted in green.
Wednesday morning update: Tiger King. On last week's Guessing Game list, I said, regarding Tiger King, "I don't even know what this is, but all of a sudden, it's everywhere." Now I know. It's "Netflix's wild hit docuseries" and apparently it rates a People cover. I admit I don't care too much about the blonde man in the picture, but the tiger is spectacular. No green this week.
There they are, the new dating-but-not-engaged couple Colton and Cassie. Will they beat the odds and actually get married? Almost certainly not, but I acknowledge that this was an out-of-the-box dramatic ending and the second straight year that the finale didn't follow the usual script of the show.
If the headline sounds familiar, you're right:
Issue dated March 23, 2015
Four years ago Chris Soules and Whitney Bischoff "risked it all for love," although that turned out to be a risk that didn't pay off, because they're not a Bachelor success story.
They broke up just a few months after their finale aired; more seriously, two years later Chris was arrested for fleeing the scene of a fatal car crash. A google search this morning found this article from the Waterloo-Cedar Falls [Iowa] Courier dated January 22, 2019:
Sentencing for reality TV star Chris Soules has again been postponed.
Chris Soules, a 36-year-old rural Arlington resident known for his work on “The Bachelor” and “Dancing with the Stars,” had been scheduled to appear in court in February for sentencing on a charge of leaving the scene of a serious injury accident in connection with the April 2017 crash that killed Kenneth Mosher of Aurora.
On Tuesday, Judge Andrea Dryer approved a request by the state to delay sentencing because a member of the Mosher family isn’t available for the February date, and the assistant Iowa attorney general assigned to the case will be in another trial at the time. Soules’ attorney didn’t resist the request.
The new sentencing date was set for May 21 in Buchanan County District Court in Independence, and two hours was allotted.
The charge is a misdemeanor, and Soules faces up to two years in prison and a $6,250 fine. (Read the story here.)
Last year at this time: Issue dated March 26, 2018
Nick didn't, and I admit I'd love to know why not. Prince's ex-wife's book wasn't exactly breaking news:
Ben, Chris and Juan Pablo did:
There's some question about whether or not Colton is actually engaged, given Cassie's dramatic exit in last week's episode, followed by Colton's fence jump. The fact that Cassie didn't appear on the Women Tell All episode Tuesday night makes me think she's not really gone. Is she engaged to Colton? Will she and Colton be the main cover story on this week's issue? We'll know soon. And keep an eye out for Hannah B. Word on the street is that she's the new Bachelorette.
Other possibilities:
Alex Trebek: The Jeopardy host announced he has Stage 4 cancer Jennifer Lopez and A Rod: Engaged. (If any story is going to bump Colton from the main slot, it's this one.) Lea Michele: Married Ellen Pompeo: A new $20 million contract. There's an article about it at The Hollywood Reporter and it's fascinating. Read it here R Kelly: Big legal trouble; he's been bailed out of jail for the second time Gayle King: A powerful interview with Kelly Whoopi Goldberg: Fighting pneumonia, she's been away from The View since February 6 Jussie Smollett: Indicted on 16 counts. Read about it here. Jan Michael Vincent: Died at age 74 Brie Larson: Starring as Captain Marvel Amy Pickerill: An aide to Meghan Markle, she'll be leaving after the royal baby is born. In England this is considered controversial
Stories that appear on the new cover will be highlighted in green.
Update on Monday morning. Kylie Jenner. Apparently she's a billionaire.
Update #2, on Friday morning. See the new cover, featuring Bachelor Colton Underwood and girlfriend Cassie Randolph, here.
Did you hear that Arie and Lauren got married? It's true and as I said in last week's Guessing Game post (read it here,) I have to eat a little crow. Last year when Arie got engaged to Lauren in dramatic fashion after breaking up with Becca, I said that pigs will dance on Mars before the two of them get married. I gave it six months. Yes, Rosebuds, I was wrong. They made it legal on Saturday in Hawaii with Our Host Chris Harrison officiating and several Bachelor alums in attendance. They're also expecting a baby.
... and although the happy couple didn't make the cover of People, they are featured as an "Exclusive" on the new issue of Us Weekly:
Exclusive: Are Jeff Bezos and Lauren Sánchez ready to walk down the aisle? Find out everything we know about the $160 billion dollar divorce, how wife MacKenzie caught him cheating and more. Pick up your copy on newsstands now! pic.twitter.com/bef4GNRYRP
There was also this little drama between ex-friends Arie and Jef Holm, who competed against each other on Emily Maynard's season, became BFF's then for some reason started hating each other:
Pay up @jefholm... Put that trust fund money into something positive instead of bottle service. Asshole https://t.co/APS3H80BV3
I still don't find Arie and Lauren to be particularly compelling as a couple, but for what it's worth, so far at least, Bachelor/Bachelorette couples who get married, stay married.
With that, I'll segue into the new season of The Bachelor, starring Colton Underwood, starting, as usual, with the updated list:
Alex Michel
Aaron Buerge
Andrew Firestone
Bob Guiney
Jesse Palmer
Byron Velvick
Charlie O'Connell
Travis Stork
Lorenzo Borghese
Andrew Baldwin
Brad Womack (the first time around)
Matt Grant
Jason Mesnick
Jake Pavelka
Brad Womack (second try)
Ben Flajnik
Sean Lowe
Juan Pablo Galavais
Chris Soules
Ben Higgins
Nick Viall
Arie Luyendyk, Jr.
Colton Underwood
Thoughts after two episodes:
Is Colton engaged? Almost certainly, that's the whole point of the show but producers (or ABC's marketing team) are clearly trying to create some suspense about the outcome. In interviews, Colton has dodged the question of whether or not he's engaged, and the "This season on the Bachelor" preview at the end of episode 1 ended with Colton jumping a fence and apparently running off into the night. (Boss of the Bachelor Robert Mills called the maneuver the Underwood Overwood.) Chris Harrison also gave an interview in which he tried to make it sound as if Colton had dropped out halfway through. Did he disappear for good? Don't make me laugh. I wrote about this two years ago when there was a similar storyline on Nick's season:
Nick can't leave. In spite of all the dramatic emoting at the end of episode six and the beginning of episode seven, Nick can't just throw up his hands in despair and leave. That ridiculous storyline is an example of one of my biggest pet peeves about the show, i.e., it was totally scripted and completely fake.
How do I know? Because The Bachelor is big business, there's serious money at stake and Nick is an employee with a signed contract. He can't just walk away. Seriously. Think about it. Ask yourself this: What would happen if the lead walked out after filming 6 episodes? Answer: There would be no show. ABC would be running reruns of Dancing With The Stars on Monday nights and we'd all be watching The Apprentice. (And the quitter would be facing a serious lawsuit.) I can't imagine any circumstances, other than an actual tragedy like the death of the lead, under which they would stop filming and shut down production. (Read the entire post here.)
Note that a few months after I wrote that, production on Bachelor In Paradise was temporarily shut down, not due to the death of anyone but to deal with an issue of sexual consent, but in the end filming started up again and the show went on as planned.
Anyway, take a deep breath and relax. Colton won't be gone for long.
Colton is young and so are the women. After two 36-year-old Bachelors, Nick and Arie, Colton is a whole decade younger, turning 27 on January 26. His women are young too, the youngest, Heather, is 22 and the oldest Elyse and Tracy, are 31. Nine are 23 and the average age is 25.4, which is actually a pretty good fit for Colton. Many, many of them are blonde:
I admit that I struggled a bit to get my blogger juices flowing to write about the show this time around, possibly because after 22 previous seasons, quite a few of my thoughts were repetitive. In other words, I've written similar stuff before.
From Chris Soules' season, in a post titled Pomegranates And Pig Noses, Kids Named Kale and Too Much Whiskey, dated January 6, 2015:
A Red Carpet? Really? When it was announced that the premiere would be a live three-hour special, I figured it would be like the Women Tell All and After The Final Rose shows, with fans watching in real time in a large viewing room. We got to that eventually but first we had to endure almost a full hour of "red carpet arrivals." Note to producers: The Bach isn't the Oscars and Sean & Catherine, Des & Chris, Andi & Josh, et al, are so not Brangelina. The whole thing was way, way too self-referential and when I saw a bug at the top of the screen that said "first limo arrival in 58 minutes," I almost bailed. The DVR was running and I figured I could catch up in the morning, happily fast-forwarding through the boring parts. In the end I stayed, but just barely.
On the other hand, give the producers credit. They've been very savvy about building the brand of this show and utilizing social media to keep fans engaged. I heard the show was trending on Twitter last night, and as of 10.15 Tuesday morning as I'm writing this it's still at #3. I've said many times that the most entertaining part about the show is following the hilarious tweets in real time and it's still true. (Read the post here.)
It wasn't exactly the same, but four years later we had another 3-hour premiere and it didn't work any better than the first one. Too much!
From Ben's season, A Horse, A Bachelorette And A Unicorn Walk Into A Mansion, dated January 12, 2016:
I'm so glad ABC ditched the big red carpet arrival and live watch party they tried last year. This time around we're back to the regular format: A review of Ben's journey, shots of him driving and looking pensive, some intro videos of selected women, then, drum roll please, the limo arrivals.
I thought Ben handled himself well, but really. How weird must it feel to stand there as each successive woman gets out of the limo and tries to be memorable? I assume he got coaching, from producers and/or the show's resident shrink, on how to remain calm, handle everything as it comes, no eye-rolling or doubling over in despair, etc. (Read the post here.)
From Nick's season, The Bach Is Back And So Am I! dated exactly two years ago today, January 16, 2017, and talking about how the show has changed since the first season in 2002:
The biggest difference, however is not what we see on screen but what happens off screen: Social Media. Strange as it sounds now, Social Media almost didn't exist in 2002. No Twitter, no Facebook, no cell phone cameras and no Instagram, etc. It was a lot easier to keep the outcome secret in those days, and the participants didn't become nearly as famous as they do today. In fact, I've come to believe that "gaining enough Instagram followers to make money with #ads" is now the prime reason for going on the show.
The most recent Bachelorette, JoJo, has 2 million followers, and Ben Higgins has 1.5 million. Even such also-rans as Ashley Iaconetti, Caila Quinn, Amanda Stanton and Jade Roper Tolbert have several hundred thousand followers each. Do they run ads? Oh you bet they do, for such stellar products as vitamins that make your hair shiny, tea that helps you lose weight, and Ponds Cold Cream. (Both JoJo and Kaitlyn want us to believe that they've been using Ponds for years, which is, to put it mildly, not credible.) JoJo's runner up Robby Hayes (current Insta followers: 333,000,) got himself in hot water when it came out that he had reached out to previous Bach alums and asked them to help him get more followers. Even with all the evidence to the contrary, it's still important to pretend that everyone is there for the "right reasons." (Read the post here.)
Last year I didn't do weekly blog posts about Arie's season; it wasn't until the scandal happened during the finale and After The Final Rose that I took to the blog. You can read all my Arie posts here.
Former contestant Sharleen Joynt, who was on Juan Pablo's season in 2014 and now writes about the show from that informed perspective, gives a weekly list of her top four contestants. Specifically, who she thinks is on track to win. She is ferociously unspoiled, and bases her lineup on things like screen time, background music, one-on-one dates and alone time with Colton. After episode one, her top four were:
Cassie
Hannah G
Caelynn
Demi
After week two, a slight revision, with Cassie and Hannah G switching places and apparent villain-in-the-making Demi replaced by 31-year-old Elyse:
Hannah G
Cassie
Caelynn
Elyse
Sharleen's initial predictions are usually right on target. It's unlikely that Demi will win, given her edit but right now I'd say there's a pretty good chance Colton is engaged to either Cassie, Hannah G, or Caelynn, with Elyse as a possible longshot.
You can read Sharleen's posts at Canadian magazine Flare.com (click here) or at her personal website All The Pretty Pandas. That's all for now, Rosebuds, meet me back here next week, same Bach time, same Bach channel.
Monday morning update. Bach runners-up Jason and Blake were on Good Morning, America this morning and at the end of their segment they each listed their top three guesses to win. Who did they pick? Blake says it's Caelynn, Hannah B or Hannah G; Jason picked Elyse, Caelynn and Hannah G.
What will be on the cover of People this week? Just a few guesses, along with a (possible) Bachelor spoiler:
Lara Spencer and/or chef Katie Lee: Celebrity Weddings Meghan McCain: Fiery words at her father's funeral Geoffrey Owens: The former Cosby Show actor now working at Trader Joe's. Fox News and the Daily Mail published "job shaming" photos of him at work The new Bachelor: Will be announced on Good Morning, America tomorrow. Is it Colton? Reality Steve says so, but as we've seen in the past, producers have occasionally changed their mind at the very last moment. (Two years ago, Luke Pell, from JoJo's season, got as far as checking in for his flight to L.A. the next day, before getting a call from producers who told him they had "decided to go in another direction.") Colton strikes some Bach Nation denizens as immature and not ready to star in his own season. As I'm writing on Monday morning, he's also still with Tia on Bachelor in Paradise, although previews of tonight's episode appear to show them breaking up. Will this year's choice, whoever it is, be controversial? King of Bachelor Nation Mike Fleiss appears to think so and has asked for calm:
Please be respectful of all our candidates to be the next #TheBachelor . They are all good guys! We don’t want a divided #BachelorNation !!!
I will be doing a major rally for Senator Ted Cruz in October. I’m picking the biggest stadium in Texas we can find. As you know, Ted has my complete and total Endorsement. His opponent is a disaster for Texas - weak on Second Amendment, Crime, Borders, Military, and Vets!
Tuesday morning update: Yes, Colton is the new Bachelor and yes, pretty much everyone in Bach Nation has an opinion:
Meanwhile, in an alternate reality, this handsome devil will be handing out roses. You'll always be my dream Bachelor, @still_wills. pic.twitter.com/YG61x4kAxE
You’re telling me we could have had-
1. Wills: the swaggiest/best dressed Bachelor
2. Jason: the most well-rounded, emotionally intelligent Bachelor
3. Blake: the sweetest/most open Bachelor
... but somehow we settled on the boring guy that dumped Tia twice? #TheBachelorpic.twitter.com/rdRbQ5moDv
Could one of the three gentlemen in the picture above be the next Bachelor? Possibly. Jason (on the left) and Colton (in the middle) came in 3rd and 4th on Becca's season, which has traditionally been the best spot from which to get the gig as the next Bach. In a break from tradition, however, Joe (aka Grocery Joe, on the right,) who was eliminated the first night, is also considered to be in contention, along with a few other people, of course, including Ben Higgins and all the various also-rans and wannabees who are still out there. Keep an eye on Bachelor in Paradise, which starts August 7. Joe and Colton won't be the only ones treating it as an audition for the big job. (Word on the street is that Jason didn't go to Paradise. Hmmm??)
Realistically, does Joe have a shot? As I pondered this very important question, I decided to do a deep dive into Bachelor history. Where, exactly, did each of the 22 previous Bachelors come from and how did they get the starring role? What did I learn? Follow along. First, here's the master list of all previous Bachelors, starting with Alex in 2002 right up through Arie in 2018:
Alex Michel
Aaron Buerge
Andrew Firestone
Bob Guiney
Jesse Palmer
Byron Velvick
Charlie O'Connell
Travis Stork
Lorenzo Borghese
Andrew Baldwin
Brad Womack (the first time around)
Matt Grant
Jason Mesnick
Jake Pavelka
Brad Womack (second try)
Ben Flajnik
Sean Lowe
Juan Pablo Galavais
Chris Soules
Ben Higgins
Nick Viall
Arie Luyendyk Jr.
Eleven of the first 12 Bachelors were new to the franchise. They were chosen via casting calls or by applying online. (There was no Bachelor in Paradise in those days, and originally, no Bachelorette show either.) Up until their first episode aired they were completely unknown and they mostly disappeared back into their real lives when their seasons were over.
The exception was Bachelor #4, Bob Guiney, who had come in 5th on the first season of the Bachelorette, starring Trista Rehn (now Sutter.) Bob's season ran in the Fall of 2003, and once it was over, it was back to the old way for the next eight Bachelors (Jesse Palmer through Matt Grant.)
Again, there was no Bachelor In Paradise at the time and during the very early years of the show, no social media. My memory is that the influence of Twitter, Facebook and all the various blogs and forums didn't really kick in until Jason Mesnick's season in 2009, approximately, and it took a few more years after that for it to really explode. The "go on The Bachelor/sell stuff on Instagram" dynamic just bubbled up a few years ago. After appearing on Chris Soules' season in 2015, for example, contestants including Kaitlyn Bristowe, Jade Roper, Carly Waddell, Britt Nilsson, Ashley Iaconetti and Jillian Anderson have been particularly savvy about building and monetizing their brands post-Bachelor.
An interesting side note from Farmer Chris's season: Jade and Carly are both married to men they met on BIP and Ashley I is engaged to one. Kaitlyn had her own season of The Bachelorette and is still engaged to the man she selected, Shawn Booth. Why aren't they married yet? I thought Kaitlyn was holding out for a TV wedding, paid for by ABC, but now I've seen speculation that she and Shawn are close to done and will be announcing a break-up soon. Stay tuned.
The "pick the next Bachelor" process changed with Bachelor #13, Jason Mesnick. An appealing single father, Jason came in second on Bachelorette Deanna Pappas' season and was beloved by fans. Realizing the power of an on-going narrative, and a lead that viewers already knew and liked, producers changed course. Rather than selecting an unknown to be the next Bachelor, they went with Jason, and it worked. Since then every Bachelor has appeared on at least one previous Bachelor franchise show.
After Jason, six of the next seven Bachelors first appeared as contestants on the Bachelorette, then were were chosen to be the very next Bachelor. The exception was Brad Womack, who never appeared on The Bachelorette but starred in two seasons of The Bachelor. I've never read anything that clearly explained exactly why Brad was brought back, but Brad 2.0 got a second chance at love, serving as the 15th Bachelor in 2011. So far he's the only person who has been the star of two seasons. (I think the rumor that Ben Higgins might come back for a second season is unlikely, if not completely out of the question.)
That brings us to Bachelor #21, Nick Viall. This is where the pattern changed. Nick was a contestant on Andi's Bachelorette season in 2014, coming in second. He became a Bachelor Nation villain on the Men Tell All show, when he slut-shamed Andi by talking too candidly about what happened in the Fantasy Suite. The next year he appeared on Kaitlyn's season and came in second there too. That was controversial because he wasn't one of the 25 guys who stepped out of the limos on night 1. He talked his way back onto the show about halfway through the season, which made him pretty unpopular in Bachelor Nation. The idea that Nick could be the Bachelor was improbable, to say the least.
So how did he get the job? He went on Bachelor In Paradise in the summer of 2016 and redeemed himself. He came across as charming and appealing, and with no acceptable candidates among the men on JoJo's season, producers dropped a bombshell and announced that Nick was the Bachelor. Wow. They dropped an even bigger bombshell last summer by not selecting anyone from Rachel's season (or from JoJo's, or Kaitlyn's, or Andi's or Desiree's.) Instead, Arie Luyendyk Jr. got the nod. He had finished 2nd on Emily Maynard's season way back in 2012 and hadn't been seen on any franchise show in the last five years.
Why reach back so far to find the next Bachelor? For a variety of reasons, none of the obvious choices, including Peter, Eric and Dean from Rachel's season and Robby, Chase and Luke from JoJo's season, were deemed to be acceptable. There was a fair amount of sturm und drang last summer, along with a slight aura of desperation as producers scrambled to find a Bachelor, and yes, I wrote about it:
That brings us to this year and Grocery Joe. Unlike most contestants who are eliminated the first night, Joe was featured in an introductory video segment during the first episode of Becca's season. Becca didn't like Joe enough to give him a rose, but lots of fans did, making their thoughts known on Twitter and Instagram. Based on his social media popularity, Joe was considered to be a "fan favorite," and that got him a ticket to Bachelor in Paradise. He also attended the taping of the Men Tell All show, which airs tomorrow night. Reality Steve says Joe was one of six men who were called up to the stage to have a conversation with Chris Harrison, which is also unusual for someone who went home on night one.
Can Joe "pull a Nick" and use his time on Bachelor in Paradise to advance to starring in his own show? I think it's possible. We'll get a clue on Men Tell All tomorrow night. Just like the regular episodes, MTA is heavily edited after many hours of filming. Not everything that's filmed actually appears on the final version of the show. If Joe's time in the spotlight with Chris Harrison is shown, and if he's presented in a positive way, I'll take it as a good sign that Joe is officially being considered. (It also sets up his storyline for Paradise.) If we don't see his segment, I'll be less optimistic about his chances.
Saturday afternoon update: Did Joe blow it on the Men Tell All episode? Could be. Here's what Chris Harrison told USA Today: “Joe
goes on to Paradise, and I also think that you saw [on “Men Tell All”] that Joe
is a man of very few words. It was a little bit like interviewing Shannon
Miller back in the day at the Olympics. If you remember that throwback, it was
like getting one-word answers – it was very difficult. And we kind of need our
Bachelor to emote and articulate their feelings. So while he’s a good guy, I’m
not sure he would be the best Bachelor.” (Read the story here.) Unfortunately ABC's boss of the Bachelor, Robert Mills, appears to feel the same way. On the most recent Bachelorette Live podcast, he and co-host Julia Cunningham both used the same word to describe Joe's time in the hot seat at Men Tell All: "Dull."
