Asa Hutchinson Is Running - Updated

Former Arkansas governor Asa Hutchinson is running for president. From Politico: 

“I am going to be running. And the reason, as I’ve traveled the country for six months, I hear people talk about the leadership of our country, and I’m convinced that people want leaders that appeal to the best of America, and not simply appeal to our worst instincts,” Hutchinson said during an interview with Jonathan Karl on ABC’s “This Week.” “I believe I can be that kind of leader for the people of America.”

Hutchinson will make a formal announcement later this month in Bentonville, Arkansas, he said.

Mr. Hutchinson has an interesting take on Donald: 

On Sunday, Hutchinson, a former federal prosecutor, reiterated the call he first made Friday for Trump to withdraw from the race.

“Well he should,” Hutchinson said, when asked whether Trump should pull out of the race. “But at the same time, we know he’s not [going to]. And there’s not any constitutional requirement.” The indictment will become too big of a “sideshow,” Hutchinson said, adding that the former president should focus on his defense instead of another bid for the White House.

“I mean, first of all, the office is more important than any individual person. And so for the sake of the office of the presidency, I do think that’s too much of a sideshow and distraction, and he needs to be able to concentrate on his due process[.] Read the entire article here. 

I've moved Mr. Hutchinson to the "I'm Running" list:

I'm Running (and the date they declared their candidacy)

1. Donald Trump (November 15, 2022)
2. Nikki Haley (February 14, 2023)
3. Vivek Ramaswamy (February 21, 2023) By the way, who is this guy? Politico describes him as a "multi-millionaire biotech entrepreneur and self-described intellectual godfather of the anti-woke movement." Okay.  
4. Asa Hutchinson (April 2, 2023)

... and deleted his name from the "I'm Thinking About Running" list:

I'm Thinking About Running

1. Governor Greg Abbott, Texas
2. John Bolton, former White House National Security Adviser
3. Liz Cheney, former congresswoman from Wyoming
4. Chris Christie, former governor of New Jersey, was a candidate in 2016
5. Rep. Dan Crenshaw, Texas 
6. Senator Ted Cruz, Texas 
7. Governor Ron DeSantis, Florida
8. Governor Doug Ducey, Arizona
9. Richard Grenell, former ambassador to Germany and former acting director of national intelligence
10. Will Hurd, former congressman from Texas
11. Mark Meadows, White House chief of staff and former North Carolina representative 
12. Governor Kristi L. Noem, South Dakota
13. Robert C. O’Brien, national security advisor 
14. Vice President Mike Pence
15. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
16. Senator Mitt Romney, Utah, 2012 Republican nominee for president
17. Senator Marco Rubio, Florida 
18. Senator Ben Sasse, Nebraska 
19. Senator Rick Scott, Florida
20. Senator Patrick J. Toomey, Pennsylvania

Days until Election Day: 583

And one more thing: Since my last post, Donald has been indicted (or "indicated", as he put it in a Truth Social post) by the Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, after a vote to indict by the Grand Jury. I have lots of thoughts about this, no surprise, but for now I'll just say that my dream in life is to live in a country where no one is stupid enough to send money to Donald Trump. Apparently a fund-raising blitz, which started seven seconds after the indictment was announced, has raised as much as 5 million dollars. How can people still be sending this man money? Wouldn't it be more entertaining to sit around setting $100 bills on fire? 

Update: Back on January 6, The Daily Mail ran a story saying that John Bolton would run in 2024, based on an interview Bolton gave to Good Morning, Britain. I saw the tweet the Mail sent out at the time but the story didn't get much traction, and as of yet Mr. Bolton hasn't officially announced, so I'm keeping him on the I'm Thinking About Running list. (Am I obsessed with lists? Yes.) You can read the Daily Mail story here.  

Update #2 on April 12: Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina has formed a presidential exploratory committee. This is from the Washington Post:

Scott, the only Black Republican in the Senate, has spent recent months laying the groundwork for a national campaign via early state travel and donor events. The exploratory committee will allow Scott's team to ramp up fundraising and fund travel before he officially declares a bid.

Based on this, I'm moving him to the "I'm Running" list. 

I'm Running (and the date they declared their candidacy)

1. Donald Trump (November 15, 2022)
2. Nikki Haley (February 14, 2023)
3. Vivek Ramaswamy (February 21, 2023) By the way, who is this guy? Politico describes him as a "multi-millionaire biotech entrepreneur and self-described intellectual godfather of the anti-woke movement." Okay.  
4. Asa Hutchinson (April 2, 2023)
5. Senator Tim Scott (April 12, 2023)

There's one more piece of political news. Yesterday it was announced that Chicago will host the 2024 Democratic National Convention, which will take place on August 19-22 next year.

Days until the election: 573

Who's Running in 2024? - Updated

In my last post, on November 14 of last year, I included a list from the Washington Post of the "top 10 individuals most likely to be the Republican nominee" for president in 2024. At the time, Ron DeSantis was in the top spot:  

1. Ron DeSantis
2. Donald Trump
3. Mike Pence
4. Glenn Youngkin (Governor of Virginia)
5. Tim Scott
6. Kari Lake (former news anchor running for Governor of Arizona)
7. Ted Cruz
8. Nikki Haley
9. Mike Pompeo
10. Rick Scott

The Post updates their list periodically; here's how the race looks to them now, in a list published yesterday: 

1. Donald Trump
2. Ron DeSantis
3. Tim Scott
4. Mike Pence
5. Nikki Haley
6. Glenn Youngkin
7. Mike Pompeo
8. Chris Sununu
9. Kristi Noem
10. Vivek Ramaswamy

The list is in "order of likeliness to be nominated, which takes into account both how likely they are to run - or that they're already running - and their formidability if they do." Others considered to be worth mentioning are Asa Hutchinson (former governor of Arkansas,) John Bolton (former White House national security adviser,) Liz Cheney (former congresswoman from Wyoming,) Greg Abbott (governor of Texas) and Will Hurd (former congressman from Texas.) Numbers 1, 5, and 10 from the list above are now declared candidates: 

I'm Running (and the date they declared their candidacy)

1. Donald Trump (November 15, 2022)
2. Nikki Haley (February 14, 2023)
3. Vivek Ramaswamy (February 21, 2023) By the way, who is this guy? Politico describes him as a "multi-millionaire biotech entrepreneur and self-described intellectual godfather of the anti-woke movement." Okay.  

I'm Not Running (potential candidates who have definitively ruled themselves out, at least for 2024)

1. Senator Tom Cotton
2. Senator Josh Hawley
3. Former Governor Larry Hogan

Things can only heat up from here, stay tuned for more.   

Days until Election Day: 590

Note: The Republican National Convention will take place July 15-18, 2024, in Milwaukee. The three finalist cities for the Democratic convention are Atlanta, Chicago and New York City; the dates have not yet been announced. 

And one more thing: In that November 18 post, I also included an "I'm Thinking About Running" list, which looked like this: 

I'm Thinking About Running: 

1. Governor Greg Abbott, Texas
2. Rep. Dan Crenshaw, Texas 
3. Senator Ted Cruz, Texas 
4. Governor Ron DeSantis, Florida
5. Governor Doug Ducey, Arizona
6. Richard Grenell, former ambassador to Germany and former acting director of national intelligence
7. Nikki Haley, former ambassador to the United Nations and former South Carolina governor 
8. Senator Josh Hawley, Missouri
9. Governor Larry Hogan, Maryland 
10. Mark Meadows, White House chief of staff and former North Carolina representative 
11. Governor Kristi L. Noem, South Dakota
12. Robert C. O’Brien, national security advisor 
13. Vice President Mike Pence
14. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
15. Senator Mitt Romney, Utah, 2012 Republican nominee for president
16. Senator Marco Rubio, Florida 
17. Senator Ben Sasse, Nebraska 
18. Senator Rick Scott, Florida
19. Senator Tim Scott. South Carolina 
20. Senator Patrick J. Toomey, Pennsylvania
21. Donald Trump

If we tweak this list a bit, i.e., Donald and Nikki Haley are on the I'm Running list, Senator Hawley and Governor Hogan are on the I'm Not Running list, and adding Wapo's "worth mentioning" names (Asa Hutchinson, John Bolton, Liz Cheney and Will Hurd) the I'm Thinking About Running list looks like this: 

1. Governor Greg Abbott, Texas
2. John Bolton, former White House National Security Adviser
3. Liz Cheney, former congresswoman from Wyoming
4. Rep. Dan Crenshaw, Texas 
5. Senator Ted Cruz, Texas 
6. Governor Ron DeSantis, Florida
7. Governor Doug Ducey, Arizona
8. Richard Grenell, former ambassador to Germany and former acting director of national intelligence
9. Will Hurdm former congressman from Texas
10. Asa Hutchinson, former governor of Arkansas
11. Mark Meadows, White House chief of staff and former North Carolina representative 
12. Governor Kristi L. Noem, South Dakota
13. Robert C. O’Brien, national security advisor 
14. Vice President Mike Pence
15. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
16. Senator Mitt Romney, Utah, 2012 Republican nominee for president
17. Senator Marco Rubio, Florida 
18. Senator Ben Sasse, Nebraska 
19. Senator Rick Scott, Florida
20. Senator Tim Scott. South Carolina 
21. Senator Patrick J. Toomey, Pennsylvania

As people declare themselves to be running or not running I'll update the lists. 

Update on March 27: I never had Georgia Governor Brian Kemp on my "Thinking About Running" list, but apparently he was considering it. A couple of days ago, however, he announced that he won't be running this time around. I've updated the "I'm Not Running" list:

I'm Not Running (potential candidates who have definitively ruled themselves out, at least for 2024)

1. Senator Tom Cotton
2. Senator Josh Hawley
3. Former Governor Larry Hogan
4. Georgia Governor Brian Kemp

Days until Election Day: 589

Update #2 on March 29: I haven't seen Chris Christie's name mentioned as a potential candidate in 2024, but according to the Washington Post he's considering it: 

Former New Jersey governor Chris Christie sharply criticized Donald Trump on Monday during his first trip this year to New Hampshire, as he kept the door open to entering the GOP presidential primary against his former ally and signaled he would decide by June.

In a nearly two-hour town hall at St. Anselm College's New Hampshire Institute of Politics, Christie said Trump's name more than 20 times, attacking the former president over his efforts to overturn the 2020 election that he lost, mocking his policy acumen and blaming him for Republican losses in the 2022 midterms. Christie also portrayed himself as uniquely well positioned to take on Trump.

"You know, Donald Trump said a couple of weeks ago, 'I am your retribution.' Guess what, everybody? No thanks. No thanks," Christie said to applause from his audience in an early-nominating state. "If I was going to pay somebody to be my retribution, I guarantee this, it wouldn't be him."

Christie, who has been publicly critical of Trump as he weighs a White House bid, continued, "Here's why it wouldn't be him, because he doesn't want to be my retribution. That's baloney. The only person he cares about is him. And if we haven't learned that since Election Day of 2020 to today, then we are not paying attention."

I've updated the "I'm Thinking About Running" list: 

1. Governor Greg Abbott, Texas
2. John Bolton, former White House National Security Adviser
3. Liz Cheney, former congresswoman from Wyoming
4. Chris Christie, former governor of New Jersey, was a candidate in 2016
5. Rep. Dan Crenshaw, Texas 
6. Senator Ted Cruz, Texas 
7. Governor Ron DeSantis, Florida
8. Governor Doug Ducey, Arizona
9. Richard Grenell, former ambassador to Germany and former acting director of national intelligence
10. Will Hurd, former congressman from Texas
11. Asa Hutchinson, former governor of Arkansas
12. Mark Meadows, White House chief of staff and former North Carolina representative 
13. Governor Kristi L. Noem, South Dakota
14. Robert C. O’Brien, national security advisor 
15. Vice President Mike Pence
16. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
17. Senator Mitt Romney, Utah, 2012 Republican nominee for president
18. Senator Marco Rubio, Florida 
19. Senator Ben Sasse, Nebraska 
20. Senator Rick Scott, Florida
21. Senator Tim Scott. South Carolina 
22. Senator Patrick J. Toomey, Pennsylvania

Days until Election Day: 587

Who Will Run In 2024? - Updated

The mid-term election is over, which means the 2024 campaign for president is now underway, and you know what that means: Lists. I like lists, in particular lists of who might or might not run, who is or is not running for president. On October 18, 2020, I posted a list of 24 Republicans who appeared to be at least considering a run for president four years in the future. (This was 2 1/2 weeks before the 2020 election took place; at that point there were two possible outcomes for 2024: Donald would be completing his second term or Joe Biden would be gearing up to run for reelection.) Here's that list:   

1. Governor Greg Abbott, Texas
2. Rep. Liz Cheney, Wyoming 
3. Senator Tom Cotton, Arkansas 
4. Rep. Dan Crenshaw, Texas 
5. Senator Ted Cruz, Texas 
6. Governor Ron DeSantis, Florida
7. Governor Doug Ducey, Arizona
8. Richard Grenell, former ambassador to Germany and former acting director of national intelligence
9. Nikki Haley, former ambassador to the United Nations and former South Carolina governor 
10. Senator Josh Hawley, Missouri
11. Governor Larry Hogan, Maryland 
12. Mark Meadows, White House chief of staff and former North Carolina representative 
13. Governor Kristi L. Noem, South Dakota
14. Robert C. O’Brien, national security advisor 
15. Vice President Mike Pence
16. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
17. Senator Mitt Romney, Utah, 2012 Republican nominee for president
18. Senator Marco Rubio, Florida 
19. Senator Ben Sasse, Nebraska 
20. Senator Rick Scott, Florida
21. Senator Tim Scott. South Carolina 
22. Senator Patrick J. Toomey, Pennsylvania
23. Donald Trump Jr. 
24. Ivanka Trump

Two years later things look a little different. At that time there wasn't much talk about Donald running in 2024 if he lost in 2020, which is why he's not on this list. Don Jr. and Ivanka are, however, but with Donald almost certain to run, the kids are out of contention. Representative Liz Cheney sacrificed her career to pursue the truth as part of the January 6 commitee and Senator Tom Cotton is the first to officially announce that he's not running. He gets to be the first name on the "I'm Not Running" list: 

I'm Not Running

1. Senator Tom Cotton

With those tweaks to the list above, here is my current "I'm Thinking About Running" list: 

I'm Thinking About Running: 

1. Governor Greg Abbott, Texas
2. Rep. Dan Crenshaw, Texas 
3. Senator Ted Cruz, Texas 
4. Governor Ron DeSantis, Florida
5. Governor Doug Ducey, Arizona
6. Richard Grenell, former ambassador to Germany and former acting director of national intelligence
7. Nikki Haley, former ambassador to the United Nations and former South Carolina governor 
8. Senator Josh Hawley, Missouri
9. Governor Larry Hogan, Maryland 
10. Mark Meadows, White House chief of staff and former North Carolina representative 
11. Governor Kristi L. Noem, South Dakota
12. Robert C. O’Brien, national security advisor 
13. Vice President Mike Pence
14. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
15. Senator Mitt Romney, Utah, 2012 Republican nominee for president
16. Senator Marco Rubio, Florida 
17. Senator Ben Sasse, Nebraska 
18. Senator Rick Scott, Florida
19. Senator Tim Scott. South Carolina 
20. Senator Patrick J. Toomey, Pennsylvania
21. Donald Trump

As soon as candidates start to officially declare they're running, I'll put up the I'm Running list. 

Update on November 16: I hadn't seen it when I initially wrote this post, but on Saturday, the Washington Post posted their list of the top 10 individuals most likely to be the Republican nominee in 2024 and note that their list is ranked, my list above is simply alphabetical. This is how the Washington Post sees the GOP race right now, (or at least as of Saturday): 

1. Ron DeSantis
2. Donald Trump
3. Mike Pence
4. Gleen Youngkin (Governor of Virginia)
5. Tim Scott
6. Kari Lake (former news anchor running for Governor of Arizona)
7. Ted Cruz
8. Nikki Haley
9. Mike Pompeo
10. Rick Scott

Since the list was published, Kari Lake lost her race for Governor of Arizona, Rick Scott is challenging Mitch McConnell for Senate Minority Leader, and, oh yeah, last night Donald Trump officially announced that he's running for president. Again. That means he gets to be the first name on the "I'm Running" list: 

I'm Running

1. Donald Trump (November 15, 2022)

Days until the 2024 election: 720

More About Mike Pence

Writing at The Atlantic, Peter Nicholas says Mike Pence has nowhere to go: 

Mike Pence publicly defied the president once in four years, and for that solitary show of independence, his own political future could be all but finished.

The vice president’s swift journey from acolyte to outcast was head-spinning. This is someone who would pause after mentioning Donald Trump’s name during an address so that the audience had time to clap—and who would then stand silently at the lectern when it didn’t. Editing Pence’s speeches, aides would cut references to Trump when they didn’t believe there was any reason to mention him. Reviewing the changes, Pence would take his Sharpie and add Trump’s name back in, a former Trump-administration official told me.

But Pence will see no reward for his fealty, or for his actions on January 6, when he resisted pressure from Trump to toss out the election results. The springboard to the Oval Office that so many vice presidents have used is gone. Not only has Trump’s base turned on him, but Pence is complicit in the Trump administration’s most egregious actions.

Lashing himself to Trump was a path to becoming president—the only path, really—for a man who has long wanted the job. As a lowly representative from Indiana, he talked privately with former Vice President Dan Quayle about how best to position himself for a White House bid, gaming out whether he should run as a member of Congress or as Indiana governor.

Imagining his next move is difficult. “The biggest and most obvious problem he has is he has to distance himself from the president, and when you’re vice president for four years, you can’t do that,” Bill Whalen, a research fellow at the Hoover Institution and a former aide to California Governor Pete Wilson, a Republican, told me. Alternatively, “going into a crowded primary field [in 2024], he could say, ‘Hey, I’m the guy closest to Donald Trump.’” But after last week, he can’t do that either.

When Pence’s most memorable act is ushering in the Joe Biden presidency, the MAGA crowd becomes less a reliable following than a possible mortal threat. Spurred on by Trump’s remarks at a rally before the Capitol riot, some in the mob went looking for Pence. “Hang Pence!” they chanted, as they flooded the halls of Congress. Worried about Pence’s safety, federal agents have now surrounded his official residence in Washington, D.C., with chain-link fences and concrete barriers for extra protection. Any credit Pence gets for certifying Biden’s victory comes from people who probably wouldn’t vote for him anyway. “Live by the sword, die by the sword,” Whalen said.

Pence’s rise and fall is emblematic of that of so many people who tethered themselves to Trump with disastrous results. When he agreed to become Trump’s running mate, his career was in peril. He was an obscure governor facing a difficult reelection campaign. At the time, his national profile centered on a bill he’d signed that critics feared could be used to discriminate against the LGBTQ community on religious grounds. By putting him on the ticket in 2016, Trump rescued him from a potentially career-ending loss—a point that Trump hasn’t hesitated to make in private discussions with White House aides.

From the first, Pence worried about alienating a thin-skinned president in constant need of validation. He stayed on message even when there was no message. James Melville, a former U.S. ambassador to Estonia, told me about a visit Pence made to that nation in July 2017. When Pence would huddle privately with aides, he’d invariably ask: “Were there any tweets? Did I miss anything?” Melville recalled. “I thought it was shocking and amusing” that Pence would be engaged in so much “hand-wringing over what the boss was saying.” Working under Trump, Melville said, was akin to “living with an alcoholic. You’re always waiting for the next disaster.”

My first exposure to Pence came during the 2016 transition, and I was immediately struck by his determination to bind himself to Trump. He’d agreed to an interview, but recited only talking points that ate our time—and revealed nothing. With his wife, Karen, sitting nearby, he stood up at the end and, with some sympathy in his voice, asked if he’d said anything that might prove useful. Not really.

Over and over, he gave Trump cover and vouched for him with the evangelical voters who were a crucial part of Trump’s governing coalition. He stayed when families were separated at the border and when the president pressured a foreign leader to find dirt on Biden. He stayed through the tweetstorms and tantrums and false claims of election fraud. “He tends to seek approval from something bigger and more powerful than himself,” Rob Schenck, an evangelical minister who prayed and read scripture with Pence when he was in Congress, told me. “And in this case, it’s the president.”

Embracing Trump was always a gamble. As Brendan Buck, a former House Republican–leadership aide, told me, “There are no happy endings when it comes to Trump.” In this partnership, the president got more out of the bargain. Pence comes away damaged, while Trump, at least, got a vice president who ran a functioning operation.

Pence’s office was a corner of the Trump administration that actually resembled a working executive office. His staff didn’t turn over every three days. There was little public drama and, whatever you may think of his politics, a sense of mission. Career government officials with no love for the president told me that Pence was a fair intermediary who’d listen to their arguments. Joseph Grogan, who left his job as the director of the White House’s Domestic Policy Council in the spring, said that when people ask him who they should call at the White House with a question or problem, he suggests Pence’s office. “I tell them that that’s the only place you can really go right now, because they’re still working,” he said. Now that Trump is holed up in the White House nursing his grievances, Pence is, in some respects, stepping into the role of acting president. Yesterday, he went to the Capitol to thank the National Guard troops deployed to protect the building ahead of Inauguration Day—the sort of gesture a president would normally make.

Until the election’s grisly aftermath, Trump seemed positioned to become a GOP kingmaker who’d hold considerable sway over the political fortunes of any West Wing aspirants, including his vice president. (That is, if he himself didn’t run in 2024.) Now the party faces a reckoning. “Trump’s inexcusable behavior likely blew himself up politically, which may become a huge gift to the Republican Party,” said a former senior White House official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity in order to talk candidly. The official framed Pence as a casualty of Trump’s recklessness. His recent treatment of Pence showed “a complete lack of character.” What Trump was imploring Pence to do by rejecting the election’s certification was not “legal and not constitutional … It’s ridiculous.”

Yet Pence has no obvious place in GOP electoral politics even if his party repudiates Trump. Grateful though they might be that Pence honored the popular vote, independents and Never Trump Republicans have plenty of plausible alternatives when the 2024 primary season rolls around. Consistent and unapologetic critics of the president, such as Representative Adam Kinzinger of Illinois, would most likely attract those voters. In the meantime, the Trump base is more likely to gravitate toward one of the president’s adult children, or maybe one of the two GOP senators who pushed to reject the electoral-vote count: Ted Cruz of Texas or Josh Hawley of Missouri. Pence was never a lock for the presidency, but now he simply has no lane left.

“The hardest core of the Trump crowd is going to turn on him—and Trump is going to make sure that they do,” Doug Heye, a former Republican National Committee spokesperson, told me.

This week, Pence offered Trump one last act of service, rejecting House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s call for him to invoke the Twenty-Fifth Amendment and bounce the president from office. But come January 20, he’ll be in the same position as he was after the Capitol riot: out in the cold. (This is the article in its entirety.)

As Donald gets ready to slink back into private life, having effectively destroyed whatever legacy he might have had and getting himself impeached for a second time, I've been wondering if, deep in his soul, such as it is, Donald has any regrets about putting himself in the spotlight of the presidency. To answer Ronald Reagan's famous question, Donald isn't better off than he was four years ago. 

I'm having the same thoughts about Mike Pence. I've believed all along (and said here in the blog,) that the only reason Mike Pence agreed to work for Donald Trump is that he thought it would lead to the Oval Office. Remember, four years ago it was completely reasonable to think that Donald might not last a full four-year term. He would do something stupid, something egregiously illegal, his cholesterol-ridden heart would give out, or maybe he would just decide being president isn't that much fun after all and quit. Voila! Mike Pence would be president.  

It didn't happen and here we are. Unless something happens within the next 44 hours, Donald will have served a complete term and Mike Pence, like pretty much everyone who has worked for Donald, leaves with his reputation destroyed and his career in ruins. He's not better off after four years either.    

Mike Pence For President? Umm, No.

Did Mike Pence destroy his chance to be elected president by standing up to Donald Trump? In an article titled "Pence Reached His Limit With Trump. It Wasn't Pretty," the New York Times says yes:  

WASHINGTON — For Vice President Mike Pence, the moment of truth had arrived. After three years and 11 months of navigating the treacherous waters of President Trump’s ego, after all the tongue-biting, pride-swallowing moments where he employed strategic silence or florid flattery to stay in his boss’s good graces, there he was being cursed by the president.

Mr. Trump was enraged that Mr. Pence was refusing to try to overturn the election. In a series of meetings, the president had pressed relentlessly, alternately cajoling and browbeating him. Finally, just before Mr. Pence headed to the Capitol to oversee the electoral vote count last Wednesday, Mr. Trump called the vice president’s residence to push one last time.

“You can either go down in history as a patriot,” Mr. Trump told him, according to two people briefed on the conversation, “or you can go down in history as a pussy.”

The blowup between the nation’s two highest elected officials then played out in dramatic fashion as the president publicly excoriated the vice president at an incendiary rally and sent agitated supporters to the Capitol where they stormed the building — some of them chanting “Hang Mike Pence.”

Evacuated to the basement, Mr. Pence huddled for hours while Mr. Trump tweeted out an attack on him rather than call to check on his safety.

It was an extraordinary rupture of a partnership that had survived too many challenges to count.

The loyal lieutenant who had almost never diverged from the president, who had finessed every other possible fracture, finally came to a decision point he could not avoid. He would uphold the election despite the president and despite the mob. And he would pay the price with the political base he once hoped to harness for his own run for the White House.

“Pence had a choice between his constitutional duty and his political future, and he did the right thing,” said John Yoo, a legal scholar consulted by Mr. Pence’s office. “I think he was the man of the hour in many ways — for both Democrats and Republicans. He did his duty even though he must have known, when he did it, that that probably meant he could never become president.”

Former Senator Jeff Flake of Arizona, one of Mr. Trump’s most outspoken Republican critics and a longtime friend of Mr. Pence before they drifted apart over the president, said he was relieved the vice president had finally taken a stand.

“There were many points where I wished he would have separated, spoke out, but I’m glad he did it when he did,” Mr. Flake said. “I wish he would have done it earlier, but I’m sure grateful he did it now. And I knew he would.”

Not everyone gave Mr. Pence much credit, arguing that he should hardly be lionized for following the Constitution and maintaining that his deference to the president for nearly four years enabled Mr. Trump’s assault on democracy in the first place.

“I’m glad he didn’t break the law, but it’s kind of hard to call somebody courageous for choosing not to help overthrow our democratic system of government,” said Representative Tom Malinowski, Democrat of New Jersey. “He’s got to understand that the man he’s been working for and defending loyally is almost single-handedly responsible for creating a movement in this country that wants to hang Mike Pence.”

The rift between Mr. Trump and Mr. Pence has dominated their final days in office — not least because the vice president has the power under the 25th Amendment to remove the president from office with support of the cabinet. The House voted on Tuesday demanding that Mr. Pence take such action or else it would impeach Mr. Trump.

Mr. Pence sent a letter to Speaker Nancy Pelosi late Tuesday refusing to act. But Mr. Trump has been nervous enough about it that he finally broke five days of the cold shoulder to invite his vice president to the Oval Office on Monday night to smooth over their split. The official description of the hourlong conversation was “good”; the unofficial description was “nonsubstantive” and “stilted.”

The clash is the third time in 20 years that a departing president and vice president came to conflict in their last days. After Vice President Al Gore lost his presidential campaign in 2000, he had a bitter fight with President Bill Clinton in the Oval Office over who was to blame. Eight years later, just days before leaving office, Vice President Dick Cheney castigated President George W. Bush for refusing to pardon I. Lewis Libby Jr., the vice president’s former chief of staff, for perjury in the C.I.A. leak case.

Mr. Trump came into office with no real understanding of how his predecessors had handled relationships with their running mates. In the early days, when it became clear that there would be no organizational chart or formal decision-making process, Mr. Pence made himself a regular presence in the Oval Office, simply showing up with no agenda, often walking into a policy discussion for which he had received no briefing materials.

He arrived in the West Wing each morning, received an update about when the president was coming down from the residence and then simply stationed himself in the Oval Office for most of the day. He was almost never formally invited to anything and his name was rarely on official meeting manifests. But he was almost always around.

Calm and unflappable, Mr. Pence took on the role of confidant for cabinet secretaries and other officials fearing Mr. Trump’s ire, advising how to broach uncomfortable topics with the president without triggering him.

Not angering Mr. Trump “was a key objective of his,” observed David J. Shulkin, the former secretary of veterans affairs. “He tried very hard to straddle a very tough line.” But that meant Mr. Pence’s own views were often opaque.

“Were the policies and the statements being put out, were they ones that he completely agreed with?” Dr. Shulkin asked. “Or was it his strategy that it is better to be in the room, it is better to be a trusted party to help moderate some of those strategies and the way to do that is not to publicly disagree? I think that was a really hard one to figure out, exactly where he stood.”

Mr. Pence ultimately discovered that loyalty to Mr. Trump only matters until it does not. Tension between the two had grown in recent months as the president railed privately about Mr. Pence. The vice president’s allies believed Mr. Trump was stirred up in part by Mark Meadows, the White House chief of staff, who told him that Pence aides were leaking to reporters. That helped create a toxic atmosphere between the two offices even before Election Day.

When Mr. Trump’s efforts to overturn the election results were rejected at every turn by state officials and judges, Mr. Trump was told, incorrectly, that the vice president could stop the final validation of the election of President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. in his role as president of the Senate presiding over the Electoral College count.

Mr. Pence’s counsel, Greg Jacob, researched the matter and concluded the vice president had no such authority. Prodded by Rudolph W. Giuliani and Jenna Ellis, two of his lawyers, Mr. Trump kept pressing.

Mr. Pence’s office solicited more constitutional opinions, including from Mr. Yoo, a prominent conservative at the University of California at Berkeley who served in Mr. Bush’s administration.

In the Oval Office last week, the day before the vote, Mr. Trump pushed Mr. Pence in a string of encounters, including one meeting that lasted at least an hour. John Eastman, a conservative constitutional scholar at Chapman University, was in the office and argued to Mr. Pence that he did have the power to act.

The next morning, hours before the vote, Richard Cullen, Mr. Pence’s personal lawyer, called J. Michael Luttig, a former appeals court judge revered by conservatives — and for whom Mr. Eastman had once clerked. Mr. Luttig agreed to quickly write up his opinion that the vice president had no power to change the outcome, then posted it on Twitter.

Within minutes, Mr. Pence’s staff incorporated Mr. Luttig’s reasoning, citing him by name, into a letter announcing the vice president’s decision not to try to block electors. Reached on Tuesday, Mr. Luttig said it was “the highest honor of my life” to play a role in preserving the Constitution.

After the angry call cursing Mr. Pence, Mr. Trump riled up supporters at the rally against his own vice president, saying, “I hope he doesn’t listen to the RINOs and the stupid people that he’s listening to.”

“He set Mike Pence up that day by putting it on his shoulders,” said Ryan Streeter, an adviser to Mr. Pence when he was the governor of Indiana. “That’s a pretty unprecedented thing in American politics. For a president to throw his own vice president under the bus like that and to encourage his supporters to take him on is something just unconscionable in my mind.”

Mr. Pence was already in his motorcade to the Capitol by that point. When the mob burst into the building, Secret Service agents evacuated him and his wife and children, first to his office off the floor and later to the basement. His agents urged him to leave the building, but he refused to abandon the Capitol. From there, he spoke with congressional leaders, the defense secretary and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff — but not the president.

A Republican senator later said he had never seen Mr. Pence so angry, feeling betrayed by a president for whom he had done so much. To Mr. Trump, one adviser said, the vice president had entered “Sessions territory,” referring to Jeff Sessions, the attorney general who was tortured by the president before being fired. (A vice president cannot be dismissed by a president.)

On Thursday, the day after the siege, Mr. Pence stayed away from the White House, avoiding Mr. Trump. The next day, he went in, but spent most of the day at the Eisenhower Executive Office Building next door, where he held a farewell party for his staff.

But aides said Mr. Pence did not want to become a long-term nemesis of a vindictive president, and by Monday he was back in the West Wing.

Unlike Mr. Trump, Mr. Pence plans to attend Mr. Biden’s inauguration, then expects to divide time between Washington and Indiana, possibly starting a leadership political committee, writing a book and campaigning for congressional Republicans.

But no matter what comes next, he will always be remembered for one moment. “We’re very lucky that the vice president isn’t a maniac,” said Joe Grogan, Mr. Trump’s domestic policy adviser until last year. “In many ways, I think it vindicates the decision of Mike Pence to hang in there this long.” (This is the article in its entirety.)

The subject of Pence's political future also came up on Morning Joe this morning, as Mika and George Conway discussed the fact that Pence is refusing to invoke the 25th Amendment to get Trump out of office. Mr. Conway said this: "If Michael Pence thinks he's going to be president any other way than the 25th Amendment or impeachment, he's smokin' something." 

One week from today, (Yay!) Joe Biden becomes the 46th president of the United States. Four years from now, will Mike Pence be inaugurated as the 47th? My guess is no. 

24 For 2024

I love lists of people who might run for president. Today conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt, writing at the Washington Post, gives us a list of everyone who has been mentioned to him as a potential Republican candidate for president in 2024. There are 21 names on his list:    

1. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott 
2. Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton 
3. Texas Rep. Dan Crenshaw 
4. Texas Sen. Ted Cruz 
5. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis
6. Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey
7. Former ambassador to Germany and former acting director of national intelligence Richard Grenell 
8. Former ambassador to the United Nations and former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley 
9. Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley
10. White House chief of staff and former North Carolina representative Mark Meadows 
11. South Dakota Gov. Kristi L. Noem
12. National security adviser Robert C. O’Brien 
13. Vice President Pence
14. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
15. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio 
16. Nebraska Sen. Ben Sasse 
17. Florida Sen. Rick Scott
18. South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott 
19. Pennsylvania Sen. Patrick J. Toomey
20. Donald Trump Jr. 
21. Ivanka Trump

In July, I published my first "Who will run in 2024?" post, with a list of seven names (read it here,) four of which are on the list above (Cotton, Haley, Pence and Pompeo,) plus Representative Liz Cheney, Maryland governor Larry Hogan and Mitt Romney. 

Yes, the 2024 race is already underway, or at least what's called the "silent" or "hidden" primary part is already happening. So, drum roll please, here's the combined list of potential 2024 candidates: 

1. Governor Greg Abbott, Texas
2. Rep. Liz Cheney, Wyoming 
3. Senator Tom Cotton, Arkansas 
4. Rep. Dan Crenshaw, Texas 
5. Senator Ted Cruz, Texas 
6. Governor Ron DeSantis, Florida
7. Governor Doug Ducey, Arizona
8. Richard Grennell, former ambassador to Germany and former acting director of national intelligence
9. Nikki Haley, former ambassador to the United Nations and former South Carolina governor 
10. Senator Josh Hawley, Missouri
11. Governor Larry Hogan, Maryland 
12. Mark Meadows, White House chief of staff and former North Carolina representative 
13. Governor Kristi L. Noem, South Dakota
14. Robert C. O’Brien, national security advisor 
15. Vice President Mike Pence
16. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
17. Senator Mitt Romney, Utah, 2012 Republican nominee for president
18. Senator Marco Rubio, Florida 
19. Senator Ben Sasse, Nebraska 
20. Senator Rick Scott, Florida
21. Senator Tim Scott. South Carolina 
22. Senator Patrick J. Toomey, Pennsylvania
23. Donald Trump Jr. 
24. Ivanka Trump

As I did for the 2016 election, I'll add names to this list as various other politicians start to look like (or declare themselves to be) candidates. For now, I'll ask my usual question. Will anyone on this list be standing on the steps of the Capitol building on January 20, 2025, getting ready to take the oath? Stay tuned. 

And one more thing. Hewitt says that if Donald loses in 16 days he might come back and run again in 2024:

Of course, should President Trump lose to former vice president Joe Biden, he could — and almost certainly would at least — consider a return to the ring in 2024. That would shorten the list by taking the other Trumps off it, but this is just a list of the already mentioned. (Read the entire article here.)

Just the thought of that makes my stomach turn but I would say it's unlikely. Donald appears to be deteriorating before our eyes at his current age of 74. He can barely form a coherent sentence, he's slurring his words and he frequently looks a little unsteady on his feet. I don't think we have to worry about him running in 2024. 

2024: Time For A List - Updated

Is it too early for a list of possible Republican candidates for president in 2024? Apparently not:

Interesting the degree to which contenders for the GOP 2024 field are already edging toward the starting line before the bloated orange corpse has been dragged off the field: Pompeo, Cotton, Liz Cheney, Nikki Haley & Romney all seem to be chomping at the bit.

— David Rothkopf (@djrothkopf) July 18, 2020

I'm intrigued by the fact that Rothkopf doesn't include the current Vice President. Too damaged by his slobbering, ass-kissing sycophancy towards Donald? Too afraid Donald will boot him off the ticket this year if he appears to be looking ahead? Probably to both, but I'm putting him on my list anyway.

2024 Potential Republican Candidates

1. Liz Cheney (Representative from Wyoming, daughter of former VP Dick Cheney)
2. Tom Cotton (Senator from Arkansas)
3. Nikki Haley (former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. and former Governor of South Carolina)
4. Larry Hogan (Governor of Maryland)
5. Mike Pence (Current VP, former Governor of Indiana)
6. Mike Pompeo (Current Sec. of State, former representative from Kansas and former director of the CIA)
7. Mitt Romney (Senator from Utah, former governor of Massachusetts, 2012 Republican nominee for president)

And for a fun blast from the past, can you name all 17 Republicans who were declared candidates in 2016? No? Here's that list:

Declared 2016 GOP Candidates, in order of their official announcement (in 2015):

1. Ted Cruz (March 23)
2. Rand Paul (April 7)
3. Marco Rubio (April 14)
4. Dr. Ben Carson (May 3)
5. Carly Fiorina (May 4)
6. Mike Huckabee (May 5)
7. Rick Santorum (May 27)
8. George Pataki (May 28)
9. Lindsey Graham (June 1)
10. Rick Perry (June 4)
11. Jeb Bush (June 15)
12. Donald Trump (June 16)
13. Bobby Jindal (June 24)
14. Chris Christie (June 30)
15. Scott Walker (July 13)
16. John Kasich (July 21)
17. Jim Gilmore (July 30)

Four of these distinguished statesmen are still in the Senate (Cruz, Paul, Rubio and Graham,) two are cabinet secretaries, current (Carson) and former (Perry,) and the rest are out of government. Except for Donald, of course, but hopefully his destiny changes in 108 days. Of the "also rans," my guess is that Cruz and Rubio are pondering another run.

Update: Maryland governor Larry Hogan is another name I'm seeing mentioned as a possible 2024 candidate. I've added him to the list above.

And one more thing. Two of the 2016 candidates, Carly Fiorina and John Kasich, have announced that they support and will vote for Joe Biden.

Days until the election (from Monday 7/20) 106